The Fit, The Symptomatic and The Vulnerable - Stopping The Spread is Possible.
Common Sense and Science rather than Hollywood Heroics.
What will it take to arrive at Virus Eradication Day?
on re-reading this there's too many words, my writing feels clumsy, there is too much repetition - I am leaving it that way because well, it bears repeating - the UK Government Policy on Corona Virus is a disastrous policy, and it is causing avoidable harms to vulnerable people.
1. Fit healthy people who have contracted the virus without presenting any symptoms can and do spread the virus in the community.
2. Symptomatic people spread the virus at home.
3. To stop the spread we need supportive shut down, social distancing and we need Government to adapt buildings as fever hospitals to treat symptomatic cases at the earliest stages, rather than more critical care hospitals. We also need contact tracing and testing to chase down all cases of infection and all potential cases of infection, until we know where the virus has been, where it is and there it has not yet appeared.
Creating Fever Hospitals protects existing hospitals, allows us to concentrate skilled ICU facilities where they already exist and where such services can be more readily expanded, with the skills close at hand so that training is easier because of the existing skill base.
4. The vulnerable will suffer the worst consequences. That has to be our shared concern, a collective duty of care.
About 15 million people in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland live with a long-term health condition. Long-term conditions or chronic diseases are conditions for which there is currently no cure, and which are managed with drugs and other treatment, for example: diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis and hypertension.
5. Then there are the most serious concerns with the situation within the 15, 570 care homes in the UK, where people being cared for have been isolated, by Government order, away from close family. As if the date of this blog one third of care homes have infection outbreaks. We know now that cared for elders are contracting the infection, (through care workers who move between care settings) and this is having fatal consequences, with no measures in place to enable some close family to have access at such a critical time. Awful.
Things to consider, at pace - Possibilities such as testing an entire family group for virus or anti-bodies to ascertain who might be infected or immune within family groups, so that they can be screened for safe entry. The creation of facilities for changing into PPE for visits. The treatment of elders with symptoms at Fever Clinics rather than within care homes where they become spreaders. There's a huge gap in provision to assess the needs and provide support for the welfare of the cared for, and their families.
6. Everyone looking at the situation really ought to be fully conscious of this important characteristic of health within the UK population. Chronic Disease with no cure. Such a large part of the population at extra risk must concern all of us.
5. Among that portion of the population with chronic conditions, those exposed to the viral infection who then develop the disease COVID19 will endure many, far too many, early avoidable, horrible deaths. In large numbers. Am I repeating myself? I am. It rarely gets mentioned in the media reports.
7. There is no vaccine, and none in sight. Bear that in mind at all times. I am repeating myself. Some things need to be repeated.
8. Suppression of Virus and eradication from within a given population is possible.
That is what New Zealand and Vietnam and Ireland have chosen. It will work. Others have taken this path. For very sound economic and epidemiological reasons. They will close their borders, and demand quarantine for all incoming travellers. They will have to - they will have to police their borders assertively as a matter of health and safety for the whole population and their economy.
Here is a chart of how different countries are faring, with different approaches.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
Suppression and eradication is a finite process, it does have an end in sight, running as it typically does for 8 - 12 weeks, or a bit longer, when done correctly with full resourcing and effort - once the virus is eradicated from within a given population, maintaining a tight quarantine, with a vigilant detection and suppression internal and active health system protects the population.
9. The economic cost of a suppression of Virus and eradication protocol will always be less that the economic cost of multiple waves of a slow the spread policy.
10. It does mean that external tourism is replaced with internal tourism. That means more money is circulated within that population. That is a benefit.
11. A slow spread policy is inherently uncontrollable - as soon as there is a relaxation, community spread will escalate within a matter of a few days or within a week, and any surge in infection rate will demand another tighter shut down. The costs of a cycle of surge, shutdown, release, surge shutdown, release , surge, shutdown will be vast by comparison.
12. That cyclical pattern will be open ended. There is no vaccine, and none in sight. Nothing to stop the virus other than an assertive suppression and eradication program.
Therefore that pattern will continue until the mythical 'herd immunity' or maximum infection within the population is realised, which is 93% of the population - and that inevitably means infecting the 15 million people in the UK who suffer from chronic diseases with immune compromised status.
13. It is practically impossible to protect that many people - the only way you protect the vulnerable is by protecting the whole population through suppressing the virus transmission until it ceases.
14. If The UK Prime Minister, his advisors, The Cabinet, SAGE, Dominic Cummings and The Behavioural Insights Team had chosen the correct policy for dealing with an infectious pathogen where no vaccine or medical curative existed - suppression of transmission leading to eradication of the active virus within the population, we would be celebrating Virus Eradication Day.
15, We probably need to quarantine the UK Prime Minister, his advisors, The Cabinet, SAGE, Dominic Cummings and The Behavioural Insights Team until we have stopped the spread and eradicated the virus from the UK population.
Virus Eradication Day.
Think about that, what it means.
We are not celebrating today.
VE day is a poignant commemoration rather than a celebration.
I do not blame the virus. I do not blame the Chinese.
I wish to hold this UK Government to account - the avoidable early deaths are largely on their account. The extra damage to the economy is largely on their account.
Read about the 8-12 week suppression protocol in these two articles.
A song to affirm the viability of this.
CD Quality download, playable online:
mp3 quality download, playable online:
Kindest regards
Corneilius
"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."
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