We don't need no Education - not when we have 8000+ infections daily, and rising, we don't: Home Learning is Efficacious!.

The Nation Education Union has issued a press release today.

As things stand,  is not safe to open schools up as the UK Government has ordered.

COVID19 Deaths and infection rates are too high.

Stop Wider 1st June School Opening : their press release direct

I will be looking at it below, but first lets take a look at the overarching situation,
the wider context of the NEUs request.

Learning all the time.

Self motivated learning - the desire to know, the urge to explore what truly interests one's mind, to excel in any given subject or skill, expressed as the desire to share and contribute to one's family and community. by way of applied skill originating in some native interest. Unquenchable interest and fascination. Study till you drop, from happy exhaustion. Home learning. Education.

Schools have been and are open on a limited basis, serving a smaller (6%) population of children of NHS staff and other essential key workers, as well as providing for various categories of vulnerable children, as organised by each individual school. This limited service is working well.

Teachers are also engaged with plenty on-line curriculum work with students who are staying at home. That appears to be working reasonably well. Better than the testing, tracing, quarantining and isolation treatment programs are. Teachers are adaptable, and their students are too.

Children's education continues. Everyone is doing their level best, including stay at home parents who are learning what learning is like.

There's a lot of home learning happening in the UK at the moment.

Cummings is, by his own admission, a media strategist, among other things, and he is a Master Baiter. He likes to lecture, and does not seem to show aptitude for learning. A bit like his political boss, Boris Johnson.

He baits the hook, he dangles the hook, he watches them bite, he pulls them in.

"£350 million to go to the NHS."

We will tell you that to think!

"Corbyn is a communist!"

We will hint at what we want you to think!

He baits the hook, he dangles the hook, he sees them bite, he pulls them in. I have written about this in a recent blog post.

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-purpose-of-cummings-road-show.html

His road show was about breaking the citizens will to stay home to quell the spread of the infectious virus, an act of collective human solidarity.

In opinion polls taken around the 10th May, on average about 60% of citizens said they'd rather stay at home until they knew the infection was suppressed, because they had concerns for their elderly relatives and vulnerable people they knew. It was not a question of fear, rather it was a matter of concern for others.

Love. Compassion. Solidarity.

May 10th speech and much that has followed has been indirectly undermining the current, humane  and quite wonderful grass roots solidarity - through sowing confusion, through conflating problems that were already in place exacerbated by the inadequate provision during lock down, with the lock down itself.  It is the inadequate provision that is the problem. Easing the lock down may not resolve those issues unless there is funding and logistical support directed to those areas. Why not direct the resources anyway?

Keep this in mind as you read on.

Who benefits from broken grass roots solidarity?

UK Citizens have for the most part decided to bear the strain of staying at home, missing out on family and wider human contact, missing out on work, losing income, losing trade and business opportunities, in order to stop the community transmission of the infection, in effect an action of immense humane kindness and social cohesion, which the behavioural planners had assumed would not emerge, let alone be sustained. They were proven wrong. And not for the first time. The Behavioural Insights Team are pseudo-scientists, one and all.

From my perspective, the Cummings road show was orchestrated as part of a wider Government move to ease the lock down, which is being pursued even as there are more than eight thousand new infections daily, hundreds of deaths daily with no control of the spread of the virus in sight.

The only logical conclusion is that this is being done in order to increase spread of the infection towards mythical herd immunity at 20% of population infected. There are economic gains to be had, if the NeoLiberal sponsors can re-rig a broken economy, and blame a virus or a population for the broken-ness.

There is no real need to 'get the economy going' yet.

Things are not that bad. Three months of disruption so far. The nation has much more capability and capacity to deal with this. This is not a 5 year proxy war. This is not Vietnam, or Yemen. We are good. We could use better management, for sure. It is nowhere to be seen in Parliament or 10 Downing Street.

There is a real need to stop the spread of the transmission, to eradicate the virus from the population on the Islands of Great Britain and Ireland. That it can be done is clear, from all available evidence, even now. UK population infection rate is not even at 10%! That it would strengthen the UK economy is also clear. Multiple waves will not.

"I thought herd immunity was ditched!" I hear you say.

An article proposing a lower threshold for Herd Immunity appeared in early May, a week before Johnson's Sunday speech to the nation, in The Spectator, where a certain Ms. Wakefield works, where once Boris Johnson worked as the Editor. Throwing rocks in glass houses from a a distance gives him a 'weird sense of power'.

Here is the article, read it. see for yourself.

https://spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

Then on May 10th this article emerge, online, in support, coming from  a Climate Modelling Scientist, of all people!

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

Herd Immunity has always been the background planning.

Stopping the spread, and eradicating the virus from within the population of the British Isles and Ireland has never been the policy objective.

I have written about the efficacy of the New Zealand approach, and how they looked at the experience of China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, and they chose to learn from that.

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/04/new-zealand-demonstrates-efficacy-of.html

The situation in New Zealand is now a matter of record. They have eliminated the virus from within the New Zealand Island population. Success. We can do the same here, and yes, it would demand resourcing and commitment and it could be done within three months, if done diligently.

Meanwhile in the UK, slow spread has been the effect of Government policy. Some claim this is the result of incompetence. I reject that claim, The Corona Virus Policy  of the UK Government is deliberate and intentional.

This was Professor John Edmunds, SAGE advisor on Epidemiology, on March 14th

"Indeed, the only way to stop this epidemic is to achieve Herd Immunity"


He was talking then about the idea that at 60% infected, the population would  have achieved Herd Immunity. He was supremely confident in his assertion, to the point of arrogance.

In vaccination science, Herd Immunity is typically reached at 93%!

A month ago, he argues 'well there's always a risk.... but it's worth it."

This was in the lead up for moral support of the drive towards Johnson's May 10th speech



At the same time the Social Media world was being peppered with ConTheory, New Age, Alt Right commentariat calling for ending of the lock down, based on a series of lies, gaslightings and false assumptions, and this chatter was feeding into the pressure to 'ease the lock down'.

Today he states the obvious via the BBC, and others broadcasters, along with other SAGE Advisors, that the Ro is too high, that there are too many fresh infections and "it's a political decision, not mine to make."



The science has not changed.

Not since January 6th.

Not since February 3rd.

Not since April 1st.

We know more - we are learning all the time - and the more we know, the more damning the evidence is that SAGE, Edmunds, the Boris Johnson, Cummings and The Cabinet as a whole entity, have lied, manipulated and gaslighted the citizens of the UK.

They have collaborated in behaviour and action that has caused and is causing avoidable, horrible, lonely deaths in their many tens of thousands - between 40,000 and 60,000 excess deaths, whether it's due to COVID19 or due to the way in which the shut dawn has been imposed, either way are entirely down to UK Government policy decisions.

John Edmunds is covering his arse.  A bit too late for my liking.

The shit is all over the shop, and it stinks.

Still, it is good that he is making a public statement, and it's not too late.

We could have a government that initiates a stop the spread, eradicate the virus policy, there is still time, and plenty of leeway, we have not reach even 10% infected across the whole population.

The National Education Union have issued a press release, demanding that the Government step back from the brink.

Four prominent members of the Government’s own scientific advisory body have broken ranks to express worries about the safety of wider primary school opening on Monday.

SAGE members Professor Peter Horby, who is chair of the Government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group  (NERVTAG); Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Institute; John Edmunds, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Calum Semple, professor in Child Health and Outbreak Medicine have all expressed fears about the easing of lockdown.

Professor Edmunds said “There are still 8,000 new infections every day in England without counting those in hospitals and care homes… If you look at it internationally, it’s a very high level of incidence.

“I think many of us would prefer to see the incidence driven down to lower levels because that then means that we have fewer cases occurring before we relax the measures.”

Professor Farrar tweeted: “Covid-19 spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England. TTI [test, trace and isolate] has to be in place, fully working, capable [of dealing with] any surge immediately.” 

Professor Semple said: “Essentially, we’re lifting the lid on a boiling pan and it’s just going to bubble over… We need to get it down to simmer before we take the lid off, and it’s too early.

DO NOT GO BACK TO SCHOOL

"We don't need no education, we don't need no thought control,

no dark sarcasm in the class room!

Williamson! Leave the kids alone!"

23rd March 2020  : 102 covid19 deaths in UK

28th May  2020 :  377 covid19 deaths in UK

In essence, there are three times as many deaths per day today as there were on the day Johnson's Government ORDERED lock down, without adequate preparations in place at that time. We know that that caused.

There are no adequate preparations in place today.

Test and Trace is not ready; there are no Fever Hospitals to treat symptomatic cases away from the community, there are no suitable quarantine support systems in place, many care staff still do not have the correct PPE.

The transmission rate is currently Ro hovering at 1, only because citizens have upheld the stay at home policy, and it can easily move upwards with "return to work!" order...

Here is a detailed reveal of the Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson, emotionally blackmailing the public, gaslighting parents, bullying teachers.

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/05/gavin-williamsons-emotional.html

It was not safe then, it is not safe now.

That is why he was and is using such tactics. When the evidence does not support the action being suggested,then deceit and force are all that remain.

Do not go back to school, do not send your children to school, stay home, stop the spread - sue any employer who threatens to dismiss you for protecting the nation.

Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

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Fan Cang Fever Hospitals vs Nightingale Hospitals and the UK Care Home Infection Rate.

Fan Cang Fever Hospitals vs Nightingale Hospitals and the UK Care Home Infection Rate.

When the Chinese Government started their shut down in Wuhan in order to confront the uncontrolled spread of the viral infection via community transmission in public spaces, public transport, work spaces, markets, shopping malls and so forth, they discovered that people self  treating at home, in families and in apartment complexes where there are shared areas, lifts, hallways, gardens etc were also spreading the infection and were, within the shut down, the biggest spreaders of infection by every measure.

This is referred to in the WHO final report of February 23rd, and in reports in The Lancet and other news media. We all saw video footage of the build and time-lapse videos of the newly built temporary hospitals. It was a major news story world wide.

Some western media even said it was only possible because the Chinese Government is an Authoritarian Dictatorship, and it couldn't possibly happen in Western democracies. Some people will always attempt to exploit emergent vulnerabilities, or avoid their responsibilities as did some Wuhan officials in the early days of the outbreak.

When the Chinese Authorities and Health Care Officials initiated the shut-down and they were running contact tracing as part of that process they were on a learning curve. That is how they discovered the super spreading nature of self treatment of mild symptoms at home. Family groups with many generations across a number of  close by houses, and apartment blocks where many people were moving in and out every day.

Fever Hospitals

In order to resolve that problem, the Chinese health Authorities then moved rapidly to build Fever or Shelter Hospitals to treat every new case presenting with mild symptoms as early as possible, with best available support.

They also set up local community isolation observation wards, for contacts of case traces, where people could be quarantined and observed in order to maximise earliest possible treatment.

They combined these temporary hospitals with extended contact trace, quarantine and isolated treatment programs.

Quarantined contacts were told "as soon as you get symptoms, come to the fever clinics, we will test you for all fever inducing illnesses, just to check. If you have covid19 we will treat you, give you the best support to not go severe/critical." (the Chinese health practitioners used vit c, vit d, chinese herbs, modern medicines and good food and good, consistent care, exercise and social activities to keep morale up.)

This clear advice and logistical support gave the people the security they needed to really engage with the protocol of suppression of transmission leading to eliminating the virus from within the population.

This helped to stop the spread, it reduced the number of cases that progressed to severe or critical, it protected established hospitals from overflow, and it allowed the Chinese authorities to expand already existing ICU from those already existing sites, where it was much easier to train new staff and maintain ICU coverage.

In Wuhan they built 14,000 new bed spaces over a matter of weeks drawing in medical professionals from the Chinese Military and from Hospitals all over China. They also applied the same policy to every local outbreak across China.  Because it is an eminently sensible approach to managing this epidemic.

Learning from experience?

Compare this to the UK approach - shutting down the Health System to become a COVDI19 system,  ditching all non-elective surgeries, building extra intubation hospitals that were never fully utilised because they were not needed, they were not the appropriate facility for helping to stop the spread of the virus and which were also permanently understaffed. Had the Government studied the Chinese effort and followed that approach, tens of thousands of lives could have been protected.

Whilst at the same time sending thousands of people from hospitals where COVDI19 illness was present, without testing those patients being discharged, in spite of repeated Government assurances that testing would be carried out.

The reckless lunacy of ordering Hospitals to send potentially infectious cases out into the community and into care homes, where they inevitably spread the infection lethal effect - from where more cases lacking supportive treatment went into severe and critical condition, many then needing urgent emergency ICU treatment in NHS hospitals. Many, many thousands died in the care homes without such interventions. Palliative medicine use in care homes surged during those awful months. 

A basic principle of good public health is to learn from the failures and the successes of others facing the same health problem.

Learning from experience, from others failures and their successes.

A number of British and European Public Health professionals issued a report, published in The Lancet on February 19. This is what they said:

"We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing. We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community. This effort has been remarkable.

We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak. We are all in this together, with our Chinese counterparts in the forefront, against this new viral threat."

The WHO were in country in China, and were in the process of taking evidence for a final report on the Wuhan situation at the same time. They were in China between 14th and 24rd of February, and this is from their final report.
"Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.

At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities. Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction. They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel.

Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response."
and

"China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. A particularly compelling statistic is that on the first day of the advance team’s work there were 2478 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported in China. Two weeks later, on the final day of this Mission, China reported 409 newly confirmed cases. This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real."

This begs the question - Why did the UK Government, SAGE and Public Health England ignore the experience and learning from real lived social and material data and evidence from the Chinese handling of the epidemic?

Herd Immunity

The UK Government made deliberate choices to not do that, to not learn from the experience of others and what is worse is that they created novel policies that exacerbated the spread of the infection, that led to more deaths than if they had adopted and adapted the  public health protocols that were already proven to work so well.

At every stage, the UK Government has avoided what works, and pushed policies that have failed, repeatedly. The UK Government has also lie about the data, the evidence, their actions and outcomes. This all goes beyond mere incompetence. The only logical assumption is that the UK Government's initial stance of 'herd immunity' still stands and is being defended with every step, using every tool in the Governments hands.

'Herd Immunity' on their terms is reached when 60% of population have been infected - the claim is at that level of infection the entire population is protected from a second wave next winter.




The price to be paid is 400,000 excess deaths or early deaths of already ill people. The price to be paid is the destruction of small business in favour of corporate business. The price to be paid is mass unemployment.The price to be paid is destruction of self-employment within the UK. The price to be paid is multiple waves of infection surges, a punishing cycle of shut-down, open up, shut-down, open up.

Care Homes

In the UK NHS hospitals were turning away people presenting with mild yet uncomfortable symptoms, which were sent back home to self treat. I have heard and been part of a few anecdotal stories of people I know whose relatives were quite ill, did the phone consultation, went into hospital, were checked, and given a confirmed, non-tested diagnosis and sent home to self treat. One case I know of through family connections was an elderly male, with severe chest pains who was prescribed opiates for the pain, and then sent home to self isolate.  Fortunately he has recovered. His family remain well.

Likewise there are plenty of cases of elderly patients who were known to have the infection and were were sent back to care homes. Both of these were policies decided by Government and NHS senior management. Both led to exacerbation of symptomatic cases and excess deaths in many cases.

11,500 deaths and rising with the UK Care home systems, and we have no way of accounting for the numbers of excess deaths from people who died at home, or who went from home to intensive care, having been sent home with symptoms in the first place.

There are questions that must be asked, and answered. Incompetence is one thing, callous indifference another.

We deserve much, much better. The vulnerable people within the UK Health systems, private and public alike deserved much more than merely better - they deserve the fullest logistical and human resourced protections possible. It cannot be a matter of budget if as a State this state is also considering 250 billion spend on it's Nuclear 'Deterrent'.

Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."