Saturday, 30 May 2020

We don't need no Education - not when we have 8000+ infections daily, and rising, we don't: Home Learning is Efficacious!.


The Nation Education Union has issued a press release today.
As things stand,  is not safe to open schools up as the UK Government has ordered.
COVID19 Deaths and infection rates are too high.

Stop Wider 1st June School Opening : their press release direct

I will be looking at it below, but first lets take a look at the overarching situation,
the wider context of the NEUs request.


Learning all the time.

Self motivated learning - the desire to know, the urge to explore what truly interests one's mind, to excel in any given subject or skill, expressed as the desire to share and contribute to one's family and community. by way of applied skill originating in some native interest. Unquenchable interest and fascination. Study till you drop, from happy exhaustion. Home learning. Education.

Schools have been and are open on a limited basis, serving a smaller (6%) population of children of NHS staff and other essential key workers, as well as providing for various categories of vulnerable children, as organised by each individual school. This limited service is working well.

Teachers are also engaged with plenty on-line curriculum work with students who are staying at home. That appears to be working reasonably well. Better than the testing, tracing, quarantining and isolation treatment programs are. Teachers are adaptable, and their students are too.

Children's education continues. Everyone is doing their level best, including stay at home parents who are learning what learning is like.

There's a lot of home learning happening in the UK at the moment.

Cummings is, by his own admission, a media strategist, among other things, and he is a Master Baiter. He likes to lecture, and does not seem to show aptitude for learning. A bit like his political boss, Boris Johnson.

He baits the hook, he dangles the hook, he watches them bite, he pulls them in.

"£350 million to go to the NHS."

We will tell you that to think!

"Corbyn is a communist!"

We will hint at what we want you to think!

He baits the hook, he dangles the hook, he sees them bite, he pulls them in. I have written about this in a recent blog post.

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-purpose-of-cummings-road-show.html

His road show was about breaking the citizens will to stay home to quell the spread of the infectious virus, an act of collective human solidarity.

In opinion polls taken around the 10th May, on average about 60% of citizens said they'd rather stay at home until they knew the infection was suppressed, because they had concerns for their elderly relatives and vulnerable people they knew. It was not a question of fear, rather it was a matter of concern for others.

Love. Compassion. Solidarity.

May 10th speech and much that has followed has been indirectly undermining the current, humane  and quite wonderful grass roots solidarity - through sowing confusion, through conflating problems that were already in place exacerbated by the inadequate provision during lock down, with the lock down itself.  It is the inadequate provision that is the problem. Easing the lock down may not resolve those issues unless there is funding and logistical support directed to those areas. Why not direct the resources anyway?

Keep this in mind as you read on.

Who benefits from broken grass roots solidarity?

UK Citizens have for the most part decided to bear the strain of staying at home, missing out on family and wider human contact, missing out on work, losing income, losing trade and business opportunities, in order to stop the community transmission of the infection, in effect an action of immense humane kindness and social cohesion, which the behavioural planners had assumed would not emerge, let alone be sustained. They were proven wrong. And not for the first time. The Behavioural Insights Team are pseudo-scientists, one and all.

From my perspective, the Cummings road show was orchestrated as part of a wider Government move to ease the lock down, which is being pursued even as there are more than eight thousand new infections daily, hundreds of deaths daily with no control of the spread of the virus in sight.

The only logical conclusion is that this is being done in order to increase spread of the infection towards mythical herd immunity at 20% of population infected. There are economic gains to be had, if the NeoLiberal sponsors can re-rig a broken economy, and blame a virus or a population for the broken-ness.

There is no real need to 'get the economy going' yet.

Things are not that bad. Three months of disruption so far. The nation has much more capability and capacity to deal with this. This is not a 5 year proxy war. This is not Vietnam, or Yemen. We are good. We could use better management, for sure. It is nowhere to be seen in Parliament or 10 Downing Street.

There is a real need to stop the spread of the transmission, to eradicate the virus from the population on the Islands of Great Britain and Ireland. That it can be done is clear, from all available evidence, even now. UK population infection rate is not even at 10%! That it would strengthen the UK economy is also clear. Multiple waves will not.

"I thought herd immunity was ditched!" I hear you say.

An article proposing a lower threshold for Herd Immunity appeared in early May, a week before Johnson's Sunday speech to the nation, in The Spectator, where a certain Ms. Wakefield works, where once Boris Johnson worked as the Editor. Throwing rocks in glass houses from a a distance gives him a 'weird sense of power'.

Here is the article, read it. see for yourself.

https://spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

Then on May 10th this article emerge, online, in support, coming from  a Climate Modelling Scientist, of all people!

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

Herd Immunity has always been the background planning.

Stopping the spread, and eradicating the virus from within the population of the British Isles and Ireland has never been the policy objective.

I have written about the efficacy of the New Zealand approach, and how they looked at the experience of China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, and they chose to learn from that.

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/04/new-zealand-demonstrates-efficacy-of.html

The situation in New Zealand is now a matter of record. They have eliminated the virus from within the New Zealand Island population. Success. We can do the same here, and yes, it would demand resourcing and commitment and it could be done within three months, if done diligently.

Meanwhile in the UK, slow spread has been the effect of Government policy. Some claim this is the result of incompetence. I reject that claim, The Corona Virus Policy  of the UK Government is deliberate and intentional.

This was Professor John Edmunds, SAGE advisor on Epidemiology, on March 14th

"Indeed, the only way to stop this epidemic is to achieve Herd Immunity"


He was talking then about the idea that at 60% infected, the population would  have achieved Herd Immunity. He was supremely confident in his assertion, to the point of arrogance.

In vaccination science, Herd Immunity is typically reached at 93%!

A month ago, he argues 'well there's always a risk.... but it's worth it."

This was in the lead up for moral support of the drive towards Johnson's May 10th speech



At the same time the Social Media world was being peppered with ConTheory, New Age, Alt Right commentariat calling for ending of the lock down, based on a series of lies, gaslightings and false assumptions, and this chatter was feeding into the pressure to 'ease the lock down'.

Today he states the obvious via the BBC, and others broadcasters, along with other SAGE Advisors, that the Ro is too high, that there are too many fresh infections and "it's a political decision, not mine to make."



The science has not changed.

Not since January 6th.

Not since February 3rd.

Not since April 1st.

We know more - we are learning all the time - and the more we know, the more damning the evidence is that SAGE, Edmunds, the Boris Johnson, Cummings and The Cabinet as a whole entity, have lied, manipulated and gaslighted the citizens of the UK.

They have collaborated in behaviour and action that has caused and is causing avoidable, horrible, lonely deaths in their many tens of thousands - between 40,000 and 60,000 excess deaths, whether it's due to COVID19 or due to the way in which the shut dawn has been imposed, either way are entirely down to UK Government policy decisions.

John Edmunds is covering his arse.  A bit too late for my liking.

The shit is all over the shop, and it stinks.

Still, it is good that he is making a public statement, and it's not too late.

We could have a government that initiates a stop the spread, eradicate the virus policy, there is still time, and plenty of leeway, we have not reach even 10% infected across the whole population.

The National Education Union have issued a press release, demanding that the Government step back from the brink.

Four prominent members of the Government’s own scientific advisory body have broken ranks to express worries about the safety of wider primary school opening on Monday.
SAGE members Professor Peter Horby, who is chair of the Government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group  (NERVTAG); Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Institute; John Edmunds, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Calum Semple, professor in Child Health and Outbreak Medicine have all expressed fears about the easing of lockdown.
Professor Edmunds said “There are still 8,000 new infections every day in England without counting those in hospitals and care homes… If you look at it internationally, it’s a very high level of incidence.
“I think many of us would prefer to see the incidence driven down to lower levels because that then means that we have fewer cases occurring before we relax the measures.”
Professor Farrar tweeted: “Covid-19 spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England. TTI [test, trace and isolate] has to be in place, fully working, capable [of dealing with] any surge immediately.” 
Professor Semple said: “Essentially, we’re lifting the lid on a boiling pan and it’s just going to bubble over… We need to get it down to simmer before we take the lid off, and it’s too early.


DO NOT GO BACK TO SCHOOL



"We don't need no education, we don't need no thought control,
no dark sarcasm in the class room!

Williamson! Leave the kids alone!"

23rd March 2020  : 102 covid19 deaths in UK

28th May  2020 :  377 covid19 deaths in UK

In essence, there are three times as many deaths per day today as there were on the day Johnson's Government ORDERED lock down, without adequate preparations in place at that time. We know that that caused.

There are no adequate preparations in place today.

Test and Trace is not ready; there are no Fever Hospitals to treat symptomatic cases away from the community, there are no suitable quarantine support systems in place, many care staff still do not have the correct PPE.

The transmission rate is currently Ro hovering at 1, only because citizens have upheld the stay at home policy, and it can easily move upwards with "return to work!" order...

Here is a detailed reveal of the Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson, emotionally blackmailing the public, gaslighting parents, bullying teachers.

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/05/gavin-williamsons-emotional.html

It was not safe then, it is not safe now.

That is why he was and is using such tactics. When the evidence does not support the action being suggested,then deceit and force are all that remain.

Do not go back to school, do not send your children to school, stay home, stop the spread - sue any employer who threatens to dismiss you for protecting the nation.

Kindest regards

 Corneilius

 "Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Friday, 29 May 2020

The Purpose of the Cummings Road Show - Engineering a Second Peak, Blame the People.

I have been watching the Dominic Cummings Road Show, and I have been wondering: why now, what is he trying to do, why is he so deliberately making himself a story in the public eye?

While we were overloaded with Cummings, this happened on Friday.

"People with cancer, liver disease or severe asthma have been dropped from the government’s coronavirus shielding list by text message before their doctors have been able to speak to them.
The decision to remove people with various health conditions from the shielding programme in England has caused upset. The text also informed people they would no longer qualify for government food parcels.
Many who received the messages last Friday believed they were fake. But the government has since confirmed the texts are correct and are official government communications".
Cummings is, by his own admission, a media strategist, among other things, and he is a master baiter. He studies the fish, works out their vulnerabilities, then he baits the hook, he dangles the hook, he watches them bite and then he pulls them in. Brexit was a grooming operation since the day Johnson started lobbing rocks over the wall at the Tory Party's glass house, taking delight in the power he felt as those rocks (lies in print) started arguments he could safely observe from afar. Both of these men are people who revel in distal disturbance, men who enjoy the feeling of power they gain as they observe the chaos they cause, from a safe, well paid, distance.

 Cummings grin, caught on camera, as he had that last drink of water, and walked away from the Downing Street Rose Garden Table spoke to me, and others, as 'Job done!'

Satisfied smirk.

Here, then is my review of some key aspects of the Corona Virus story that tries to join the dots, to see what Cummings intent really is. There are other aspects, to do with re-rigging economies and political power systems, opportunism and so forth that I will leave out of this analysis because that thread is not a public health thread, and it is the health of the people that I am most concerned with here.

I hope, sincerely, that I am wrong. I would - seriously - be delighted to be held in ridicule, to see the virus is eliminated from the UK population, by this Government, and to have my worries proven to be febrile fantasies of a feeble fool. I do have my doubts about these perceptions, about everything I write. That is why I question myself, and re-examine in the light of what evidence emerges. Opinion  and belief is never enough, never adequate for dealing with matters of the shared commons. That demands evidence based policy at every level.

I shall start at the beginning, with Johnson's UK Policy as he outlines it.

 3rd February - UK Corona Virus Policy Declared in Public

Hubris claims humility!


"And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.

And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role.

We are ready for the great multi-dimensional game of chess in which we engage in more than one negotiation at once and we are limbering up to use nerves and muscles and instincts that this country has not had to use for half a century."

Johnson lays out the policy - "Protect the hoard, let the herd take it on the chin!"
Chess, political gaming. By January 31 the UK Government knew the virus and disease was in country.

Throughout February, as the global situation worsened, the  UK Government chose not to chase every case of known infection down. They chose not to pursue detailed contact trace, quarantine and provide treatment in isolation, of every case, in order to suppress the transmission of the virus. They asked people to self-isolate at home, rather than  provide isolation treatment facilities, which they knew were a critical part of the Chinese and Vietnamese responses. They chose not to test or quarantine incoming travellers. They chose not to alert the population, even as they were being alerted by epidemiologists nationally and internationally. All of these together would have been necessary in order to activate the non-shut down Korean style suppression of transmission, eradication of virus within the population - they chose a policy that was not medically rational; it was, as it turns out, medically irrational.

They chose this policy on a daily basis throughout February. Even as epidemics were developing at pace in Italy and Spain and elsewhere.

 5th March

Boris Johnson mentions herd immunity and dismisses the idea, or does he?

I suspect he was floating the idea, rather than dismissing it. A hint. Allowing room to manoeuvre in the future. To be able to draw back from such an idea, and present something that appears to address the situation, yet allows slow spread to continue.


13th March

Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Valance touts Herd Immunity. It's still on the books.



14th March

Professor john Edmund's, SAGE member : "Indeed, achieving Herd Immunity is the only way to stop this epidemic!"


14th March

UK Government suggests isolating elders in care homes, and shielding in place for people with chronic disease, everyone else carries on. Community transmission is in full flow, uncontrolled.

23rd March

UK Government orders shut down.  Does nothing to implement suppression of transmission beyond stay at home, work from home. No policy to stop the spread. Protect the NHS results in many elective hospital work cancelled. Instead of Fever Hospitals, they build intubation hospitals. The spread of the infection continues. Hospitals start to face surges, deaths start to rise rapidly.

We know what happened after that. It gets worse, and worse. The only action that is slowing the community transmission is the fact that the bulk of the British citizenry stay home, and they take the various pressures that staying at home has created, on their shoulders. They show considerable solidarity, compassion and kindness. Mutual aid groups spring up everywhere. They watch in horror and disbelief as the shortages of PPE become a defining narrative. They watch as the death toll mounts. They watch as the UK Government does nothing to stop the spread of infection and does everything to allow a slow spread, through bad policy, inadequate provision. They watch as Government ministers lie about the situation. They stay home. They are not fearful, they are concerned. Concerned citizens doing their bit, watch a their Government fail to do it's bit, recounted by a media that is inadequate to the task of holding Government to account.

The people are so much kinder, so much warmer, so much more concerned about each others welfare than the Government is about theirs.

The citizens hold the line. The are the ones who do most to slow the transmission. But they cannot do this on their own, indefinitely.

10th May

Johnson makes a televised speech to the nation, and issues vague instructions to ease the lock down, to 'restart the economy'. The Economy has not stopped, the stock exchange is still trading, furlough is providing income for 6 million workers to stay at home, and they are all buying food and other goods, on-line and in weekly shops. That money is going back into the economy, rents are being paid, bills are being paid. The transmission appears to be slowing down, but it is nowhere near suppressed.
Hospitalisations continue, deaths continue. The transmission is nowhere near being under control.
British citizens, in poll after poll, say 60% want to continue to stay at home until it is genuinely safe. The Government wants them to go to work. A power struggle ensues.

13th May

The government lifts the restriction on how far people can drive to reach the countryside and take exercise, but visits and overnight stays to second homes remain prohibited. This encourages reckless behaviour. That is the intent. A war of attrition against the 60%.

16th May

"Back to school! Protect the vulnerable children!"

I have written about Gavin Williamson's odious Education Briefing from 10 Downing Street, the day before Gove appears on Marr. Williamson uses deliberate tactics - conflating issues, emotional blackmailing and gaslighting to deliver a bullying speech, aimed at putting pressure on teachers, manipulating parents and workers, sotto voce. The pattern is clear, the intent is obvious. They are going to use every manipulative tactic they can to push the workers back to work.

17th May

Appearing on The Andrew Marr Show, Gove said: "The only way ever to ensure that you never catch coronavirus is to stay at home completely. There's always, always, always in any loosening of these restrictions a risk of people catching the coronavirus"
Here Gove is basically taking the piss, gas-lighting the genuine concerns of teachers, parents and children. He is bullying, brushing aside the risk, rather than governing in people's best interests.

 

May 26th


Democracy Now report on New Zealand explores what they did, and why they did what they did, and why it succeeded.

"New Zealand implemented one of the earliest lockdowns and has largely succeeded in eliminating the coronavirus under the leadership of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Some of the country’s success has been attributed to her leadership, trust in science, and clear communication during the crisis. We get an update from Michael Baker, professor of public health at the University of Otago in Wellington, New Zealand. He is an epidemiologist and a member of the New Zealand Ministry of Health’s Technical Advisory Group. Baker has been advising the government on its response to the COVID-19 pandemic.2 


Their slogan is “Stay home, stay safe, and be kind.”


26th May

New Zealand's leading epidemiology advisor to the New Zealand Government speaks on Democracy Now.


"And I think across the Western world, there was this strange idea of complacent exceptionalism, that somehow the virus might behave differently when it hit the Western world compared with how it was in Asia. But, in fact, we looked to Asia for examples of a good approach, and — for example, the way China contained the virus, and other Asian countries were managing it — we realized that elimination was possible, so we changed direction very quickly."


As I have written elsewhere, those countries that were willing to learn from China, Korea, Taiwan and other East Asian countries and apply the protocols for suppression of community transmission to stop the spread (rather than merely to slow it) with a view to eliminating the virus from within their population have done and are doing a very good job indeed, and those who chose not to learn from others experience have stumbled and lurched; making matters worse they have lied, manipulated data and evidence and gaslighted their populations and there are dead bodies all over the place.

Funerals and cremations with no-one present to mourn them. A terrible price has and is being paid by the people.

Peaks and Waves.


Furthermore,  these states are facing multiple peaks within this first wave  - only because they refuse to learn from the East Asian experience. Why would they be so foolish?

They refuse to draw from the experience of New Zealand, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Vietnam and others who have managed to suppress community transmission, and practically eliminate the virus from within their populations - their refusal to apply those lessons learned elsewhere is a deliberate choice, a political choice and an economic choice, not a public health choice.

It is important to understand that to prevent a second wave in the latter months of 2020 demands that the virus is eliminated from the local population in the first wave,  retaining an active and agile contact trace, quarantine and isolation treatment facility ready for new outbreaks within each jurisdiction. This is entirely reasonable since populations are organised across the Earth within defined jurisdictions, with structured borders that can be policed. That means that borders must become quarantined borders. This means that the security of all is the security of the most vulnerable.


And the choice being made, as outlined in Johnson's February 3rd speech is to choose allow movement through those borders, to prevent the closure of the borders by allowing herd immunity to achieve a kind of parity, the parity that a vaccine would create except for the fact that no such vaccine is available, and no such vaccine is on the horizon within meaningful time limit.

Herd immunity is this manner entails a soft form of mass murder - avoidable deaths are not avoided, they are simply slowed down, and that is a deliberate action, intentional.

Those involved must be held to account, and  we must understand that the lies and misleading narratives they used to protect themselves and their policy are damning evidence of intent.


The citizens of each of those countries have a stark choice in front of them.


We, the citizens of the UK, have a stark choice in front on us.


May 22nd - the Dominic Cummings Road Show is launched.


The Dominic Cummings road show was designed to break the 'stay at home to protect the vulnerable' dynamic of concerned citizens across the UK. It forms part of a general thrust since Boris Johnson's 10th May passive aggressive management instructions to the nation. That is the outcome of the road show. Behaviour, actions, outcomes, patterns speak the truth of history.


There has been a serious, concerted on-line campaign portraying the genuine concern of UK citizens who choose stay home stop the spread as an irrational fear, with the gas-lighting suggestion that this irrational fear is itself causing the damage to the economy. Their fear is the culprit.


If nurses are 'Heroes' walking to the 'front-line', what are those who dare not step out of their homes? If Doctors and Shop Assistants are 'Heroes' what are workers, furloughed in comfort, receiving tax payers money for doing nothing, who refuse to get out and get the economy up and running again. because they are frightened? That was a subtext that was allowed far too much space, that went unchallenged for far too long. Freedom of speech, and the right to hold an opinion trumping the evidence.


Whereas it was, and it remains Government policy on SARSVOC2 and COVID19 that is causing the most damage to the UK Economy.


Had they chosen the path New Zealand took, the economy would be looking so much better right now.


The patchy nature of furlough as it was rolled out, the inadequacy of self employment support, the inadequacy of rural and farming support, the blatant bail outs to corporations by comparison, and the inadequacy of PPE support across all care systems have caused immense difficulties, difficulties that could have been avoided with better thought out policies. There are other groups who are vulnerable such as hospitality staff, entertainment artists, technicians and workers, tourism operators and independent retail staff and others who are not afforded decent furlough, and this all adds to the pressure to get out there and be working - whereas if the Government funded them to stay home, and stop the spread, that pressure would be greatly reduced.


There are recent media campaigns to exploit domestic abuse, child abuse and other long standing social care issues as leverage points to get the economy going. The implication is that shut down has made all there problems exponentially worse - and there is some truth in this, yet the solution is to provide more support rather than get everyone back to work. Where were these concerns in the start of the lock down, where were they in April? They were not headlines. But as soon as get the economy going emerges, they become headline stories. This is not accident, this is no co-incidence.


 What if everyone gets back to work and there is no extra support for all these issues - support that is already lacking, even before the epidemic? What then? More spread. More pain, More abandonment.


The tune that has been playing in the background to the Cummings Road Show - "Get The Economy Moving, Get Back to Work!"


Cui Bono?


The Cummings Road Show in the media has created a groundswell of people who will not follow guidelines, as those were clearly abandoned by a senior Government figure, and "if it's one rule for them, and another for us, well stuff that!" which is both irrational and irresponsible. It amounts to "if they can be shits, I have the right to be a shit too!"


And what we hear and see is people in media nodding their heads, and going "Well, yes, totally get where you are coming from." Encouragement, rather than critique.


This all adds to the pressure to push teachers and others back to work, and it will intensify.


Gove maintains it is safe to return more children to school, the BMA and Teachers Unions point out that the evidence suggests quite clearly is that it is not.


This is insanity...


The transmission of the virus is not under any control within the UK. It is still largely invisible. We are still with more cases, and more hospitalisations and more deaths than when the lock down was called on 23rd of March.


The new NHS contact tracing program was launched 5 days earlier than planned,  and after one day it is already falling apart. The program is headed up by a Tory peer, Dido Harding, who was CEO of Talk Talk during a serious data hack, and who managed that situation quite dreadfully. She has no public health qualification or skills. They readily admit that it will not be properly functional until end of June. A month of enabling more community transmission without the resources to quell outbreaks, to quarantine contacts, to treat the symptomatic away from the community.


It will take three weeks to five to return to another climb towards a new peak; there is no policy to stop the spread, eliminate the virus from the the population.


A new surge is all but inevitable.


They have engineered a point of no return.


Herd immunity remains on the cards.


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate


"But today comes another challenge. A team led by Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine argues that it is wrong to assume that herd immunity will only be achieved when 60 per cent of people have been infected. It is more likely, they argue, that the true figure lies between 10 and 20 per cent. The 60 per cent figure, they say, is based on the idea that we are all equally likely to contract the virus"


This article was 4th of May. It has not been debunked yet, it has not been dismissed. Everything that has happened since 10th of may suggests it is feeding into the decision making at 10 Downing Street.


https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/



"Incorporating, in a reasonable manner, inhomogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity in a standard SEIR epidemiological model, rather than assuming a homogeneous population, causes a very major reduction in the herd immunity threshold, and also in the ultimate infection level if the epidemic thereafter follows an unconstrained path. Therefore, the number of fatalities involved in achieving herd immunity is much lower than it would otherwise be.
In my view, the true herd immunity threshold probably lies somewhere between the 7% and 24% implied by the cases illustrated in Figures 4 and 5. If it were around 17%, which evidence from Stockholm County suggests the resulting fatalities from infections prior to the HIT being reached should be a very low proportion of the population."

This article was published May 10th. - Same day as Johnson's speech. Sweden's situation is not as positive as many have been asserting.

Both of these are modelling exercises, removed from the social material realities.



Everything the Government is doing is going to guarantee the spread of the infection, coupled with inadequate provision for contact tracing, quarantine and importantly no provision at all for isolation treatment of symptomatic cases at the earliest possible moment, away from the community - that is to say nothing approaching the utility of Fever Hospitals. The evidence is that Government rejected the idea of Fever Hospitals when it was mooted as a way to stop the spread within care homes.

I have addressed the efficacy of fever hospitals in a previous blog piece.


The logic is very clear and simple: it makes sense to send people who are symptomatic at the earliest possible moment away from main hospitals, away from care settings, away from peoples homes and shared apartment complexes where if symptomatic people remain to self treat they will absolutely guarantee more spread of infection with a higher viral load within the community! That is best avoided. But no, Government policy is to enable that spread with a higher viral load within the community.
This is insanity.

Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson, The Cabinet, The Behavioural Insights Team are behaving appallingly. 
Remember that Government text message sent out to vulnerable people, without reference to their doctors? 

"No more support, not for you." 

Go forth and multiply (the virus).
I say, again, that they need to be removed from office, indicted for misconduct and misfeasance, and that we the citizens of the United Kingdom, in all four Nations, and indeed in the Republic of Ireland with whom we share a border,  need a new UK government, a unity government, where the Majority Party works with all other parties, guided by epidemiology and the experience of New Zealand, Vietnam, China and others who have suppressed the transmission of the virus within their populations to do the same - to stop the spread of the virus, and eradicate it from the population.


As I like to put it, Stop the Spread, Spread the Love!


Both the people and the economy will benefit in equal measure.


Herd immunity is neither practical nor safe.


It is not economically sound either.


It is murder.




Kindest regards


Corneilius


"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Sunday, 24 May 2020

Cummings need not resign - they should all be arrested for gross misfeasance in public office.



A basic principle of good public health is to learn from the failures and the successes of others facing the same health problem.


Learning from experience, from others failures and their successes.


A number of British and European Public Health professionals issued a report, published in The Lancet, on February 19.


This is what they said:

"We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing. 

We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community. 


This effort has been remarkable.
We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak. We are all in this together, with our Chinese counterparts in the forefront, against this new viral threat."

The WHO were in country in China, and were in the process of taking evidence for a final report on the Wuhan situation at the same time. They were in China between 14th and 24th of February, and this is from their final report.


"Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.

At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities. Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction. They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel. 
Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response."

and

"
China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. A particularly compelling statistic is that on the first day of the advance team’s work there were 2478 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported in China. Two weeks later, on the final day of this Mission, China reported 409 newly confirmed cases. This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real."


The evidence is unequivocal.


The Chinese Government and their health officials did the best possible job under the circumstances. They stopped the uncontrolled epidemic within China. South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore and Hong Kong acted rapidly to prevent uncontrolled community transmission.


This begs the question - Why did the UK Government, SAGE and Public Health England ignore the experience and learning from real lived social and material data and the practical evidence from the Chinese handling of the epidemic? Why did they ignore the success of the early and rapid action of other East Asian States? Our bodies are biologically no different, our capitalist, urban consumer cultures are all similar.

Why did the UK Government try do the worst job possible under the circumstances, starting off with herd immunity, (which some are still touting as a reasonable possibility based on modelling, rather than the actual material experience) until that was objected to by independent health professionals within the UK,based on the impact it would have in terms of deaths of vulnerable people, and was publicly stood back from in response to the visceral reaction of the general public to that revelation, which was disgust?

Why then did they persist with policies that guaranteed a slow spread of the infection, and thus ensure a higher death toll upon UK Citizens, than if they had followed the experience of the Chinese, the Taiwanese, the South Koreans, the Vietnamese and why did they choose to not do as many other countries around the Earth have done?

This cannot be put down to incompetence.

The UK Government policy was and remains deliberate and intentional.

What irks me most about calls for the resignation of  Dominic Cummings over the past few days for his apparent breach of UK Government regulations is that they are a feeble, weak-kneed, cowardly response to the situation that he, SAGE, the Prime Minister Johnson, the Cabinet, the Behavioural Insights Teams, the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Advisor have deliberately created, as the directors of UK public policy on Corona Virus.


Arrest these people!

Really - think carefully about what they have done and are doing, and the adverse affects of their actions..

They have made a lethal mountain of an infectious mole hill.

They have lied.

They have misled the public.


They have used profoundly manipulative tactics to sway peoples attitudes, including emotional black mail, passive aggressive management tactics, bullying and gaslighting.

They have acted irresponsibly and caused untold, avoidable lethal harm to tens of thousands of UK citizens.

They have caused immense economic harm to millions of UK citizens.

The lies, the emotional blackmail, the gaslighting, the misleading statements, even the idiotic counting two gloves, or counting two parts of same test as two tests - all of these are abuses of their positions of power. All of these dishonesty's are signals of malign intent. Once or twice might be considered a reaction, but the fact is these are multiple occurrences, and clear and consistent pattern of dishonesty and the impact of the policies is extensive harm causation, avoidable deaths. That is criminal in essence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misfeasance_in_public_office

"Generally, a civil defendant will be liable for misfeasance if the defendant owed a duty of care toward the plaintiff, the defendant breached that duty of care by improperly performing a legal act, and the improper performance resulted in harm to the plaintiff."

https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office

The courts have been reluctant to provide a detailed definition of a public officer. The case law contains an element of circularity, in that the cases tend to define a public officer as a person who carries out a public duty or has an office of trust. What may constitute a public duty or an office of trust must therefore be inferred from the facts of particular cases. 
The judgment of Lord Mansfield in R v Bembridge (1783) 3 Doug KB 32 refers to a public officer having: 
'… an office of trust concerning the public, especially if attended with profit ... by whomever and in whatever way the officer is appointed'. 

These. then, above and below, are among the many harms for which the UK Government and it's high officials are liable for, as individuals and as officials.

They have exacerbated many pre-existing health conditions and mental health issues for millions of UK citizens, in pursuit of a toxic mythical herd immunity policy. Slow the spread is not stop the spread of the infection.

By imposing a lock down, but without  providing any rational or effective measures at the grass roots level to carry out contact tracing, quarantining of those potentially exposed to the virus, let alone providing earliest possible isolated care and treatment for those who show any signs or symptoms, away from their homes, care homes or other shared accommodation where they would inevitably  spread the infection, in order to stop the community transmission of the infection and protect the larger population., the UK Government policy has caused many, many deaths, directly and indirectly.


Everything the UK Government have done has enabled a slow progression of the infection across the general population, and a rapid spread within care homes and other shared  residential settings.

I  say it again. It amounts to moving towards Herd Immunity by covert means.


The infection is still pretty much out of control, largely invisible.

Two and a half months into the campaign and the UK Government and their media allies are gas-lighting the NHS staff, pretending to provide adequate PPE, knowing they were not,  and are still not, meeting the needs of nursing and care staff across the country, all the while calling the front-line staff  'heroes',
 clapping weekly on a Thursday evening for 2 minutes to mask the cruelty of the imposition - they must continue to work with inadequate protection - even this weekend they are bullying workers and teachers and demanding they return to work in unsafe situations, with vague provisions for 'safety' that are not supported by science or epidemiology, and thus placing the entire community at greater risk than needs be, to 'get back to work'. They are encouraging people to go to beaches and beauty spots, and this is already impacting hospitals in such areas.


To what end?

Whilst there are doing all of that, whilst they are deliberately failing in their duty of care to the health and safety of the people,  as public paid officials, they are bailing out corporations under a cloak of secrecy , investing tax payers cash in unproven AI Health Surveillance, badly designed tracing apps, employing accountancy firms to run testing programs, they are protecting the Tax Havens where trillions of pounds of UK wealth lies beyond taxation reach, they are undermining British small farmers in favour of US style factory farming.

To what end?

Put the two together, and we have corruption and institutional cruelty on a par with the British Empire response to Famine in Ireland, and Famine in India in the mid to late 1800s.

Resign?

No.

They must be arrested for gross misfeasance in public office, leading to tens of thousands of, un-avoided, avoidable deaths of UK citizens. 

This situation is intolerable.

They must be placed on remand until we have resolved the situation - they cannot be granted immunity nor can they be allowed to do any more damage to the UK citizenry.

We must remove these corrupt bullies and charlatans, and install a government led by epidemiology, public health best practice, health and social care best practice and care for the ordinary citizens of this nation above all other considerations - the economy will be stronger when we have suppressed the virus, eliminated it from these islands, and when we can return to an open and safe society, albeit with tight, quarantined borders.

It is a global matter.

Each state must eliminate the virus from within it's population, and maintain quarantined borders until all states are free of the virus. All states have a duty of care to each other in this.

The call by the UN for a global ceasefire is eminently sensible, and reflects that shared duty of care. Trump says no! Johnson says 'I am in step with Trump!' Utterly arrogant war mongers.

Reduced international tourism as states maintain quarantined borders would have some benefits. We could all gain from holidays within our own countries, and learning to not litter the land we love, getting to know, love and nurture it would be a useful exercise in internal economics and international responsibility.


When we have resolved the epidemic,  let us hold another election, a clean election, open and free from the Machiavellian ministrations of  the likes of Cambridge Analytica, the alt-right anger factories of Steve Bannon and Lynton Crosby et al.

Let me also make my position clear. I do not support left or right. I am a-political.

I detest adversarial, bipolar politicking. I see it as a way to perpetuate bullying through artificial power disparities, and  I think it is wholly unsuited to the 21st Century where science, evidence, information access and social solidarity in matters concerning the shared spaces, the commons, are the now normal aspirations of all healthy people.

I am not left, nor am I right. That bird never flew for me. It is a fat, old, flea ridden walking Eagle, so to speak.

I detest bullying of any kind, I abhor emotional blackmail, I am disgusted by political grooming , and really, really dislike manipulation. I am an egalitarian. I have no skin in this situation related to left or right.

As an example of my distaste for manipulation, I coined the term 'political grooming gangs' to describe what I was observing.

More recently, I wrote a blog about Johnson's May 10th passive aggressive management speech.

I also took on Gavin Williamsons's odious Education briefing, where he tried to use emotional blackmail, in public.

----


I wrote a song about Boris Johnson's May 10th Speech :

 Be Alert!


I wrote another song about Jacinda Ardern vs Boris Johnson, Trump, Icke and Jones.


Jacinda and The Little Bugs..





I am a singer/songwriter and a lazy permaculture gardener, as well as a writer.

I suggest we all get up to date with trauma informed approaches, poly-vagal theory and conflict resolution, as well as understanding the tactical dynamics of bullying in politics.

We really have to put a stop to the polarisation tactics of powerful groups that are tearing our communities apart. It is an essential component of justice in all areas.

Kindest regards


 Corneilius


 "Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Wednesday, 20 May 2020

Fanchang Fever Hospitals vs Nightingale Hospitals and the UK Care Home Infection Rate.

Fanchang Fever Hospitals vs Nightingale Hospitals and the UK Care Home Infection Rate.




When the Chinese Government started their shut down in Wuhan in order to confront the uncontrolled spread of the viral infection via community transmission in public spaces, public transport, work spaces, markets, shopping malls and so forth, they discovered that people self  treating at home, in families and in apartment complexes where there are shared areas, lifts, hallways, gardens etc were also spreading the infection and were, within the shut down, the biggest spreaders of infection by every measure.


This is referred to in the WHO final report of February 23rd, and in reports in The Lancet and other news media. We all saw video footage of the build and time-lapse videos of the newly built temporary hospitals. It was a major news story world wide.

Some western media even said it was only possible because the Chinese Government is an Authoritarian Dictatorship, and it couldn't possibly happen in Western democracies. Some people will always attempt to exploit emergent vulnerabilities, or avoid their responsibilities as did some Wuhan officials in the early days of the outbreak.

When the Chinese Authorities and Health Care Officials initiated the shut-down and they were running contact tracing as part of that process they were on a learning curve. That is how they discovered the super spreading nature of self treatment of mild symptoms at home. Family groups with many generations across a number of  close by houses, and apartment blocks where many people were moving in and out every day.

Fever Hospitals

In order to resolve that problem, the Chinese health Authorities then moved rapidly to build Fever or Shelter Hospitals to treat every new case presenting with mild symptoms as early as possible, with best available support.

They also set up local community isolation observation wards, for contacts of case traces, where people could be quarantined and observed in order to maximise earliest possible treatment.

They combined these temporary hospitals with extended contact trace, quarantine and isolated treatment programs.

Quarantined contacts were told "as soon as you get symptoms, come to the fever clinics, we will test you for all fever inducing illnesses, just to check. If you have covid19 we will treat you, give you the best support to not go severe/critical." (the Chinese health practitioners used vit c, vit d, chinese herbs, modern medicines and good food and good, consistent care, exercise and social activities to keep morale up.)

This clear advice and logistical support gave the people the security they needed to really engage with the protocol of suppression of transmission leading to eliminating the virus from within the population.

This helped to stop the spread, it reduced the number of cases that progressed to severe or critical, it protected established hospitals from overflow, and it allowed the Chinese authorities to expand already existing ICU from those already existing sites, where it was much easier to train new staff and maintain ICU coverage.

In Wuhan they built 14,000 new bed spaces over a matter of weeks drawing in medical professionals from the Chinese Military and from Hospitals all over China. They also applied the same policy to every local outbreak across China.  Because it is an eminently sensible approach to managing this epidemic.

Learning from experience?


Compare this to the UK approach - shutting down the Health System to become a COVDI19 system,  ditching all non-elective surgeries, building extra intubation hospitals that were never fully utilised, which were permanently understaffed, and sending people with COVID19 from hospital to home and care homes, where they spread the virus, and from where more cases went into severe and critical condition, many then needing ICU treatment in NHS hospitals.

A basic principle of good public health is to learn from the failures and the successes of others facing the same health problem.

Learning from experience, from others failures and their successes.

A number of British and European Public Health professionals issued a report, published in The Lancet on February 19. This is what they said:

"We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing. We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community. This effort has been remarkable.
We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak. We are all in this together, with our Chinese counterparts in the forefront, against this new viral threat."

The WHO were in country in China, and were in the process of taking evidence for a final report on the Wuhan situation at the same time. They were in China between 14th and 24rd of February, and this is from their final report.
"Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.

At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities. Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction. They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel.
Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response."
and

"
China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. A particularly compelling statistic is that on the first day of the advance team’s work there were 2478 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported in China. Two weeks later, on the final day of this Mission, China reported 409 newly confirmed cases. This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real."

This begs the question - Why did the UK Government, SAGE and Public Health England ignore the experience and learning from real lived social and material data and evidence from the Chinese handling of the epidemic?
Herd Immunity

The UK Government made deliberate choices to not do that, to not learn from the experience of others and what is worse is that they created novel policies that exacerbated the spread of the infection, that led to more deaths than if they had adopted and adapted the  public health protocols that were already proven to work so well.

At every stage, the UK Government has avoided what works, and pushed policies that have failed, repeatedly. The UK Government has also lie about the data, the evidence, their actions and outcomes. This all goes beyond mere incompetence. The only logical assumption is that the UK Government's initial stance of 'herd immunity' still stands and is being defended with every step, using every tool in the Governments hands.

'Herd Immunity' on their terms is reached when 60% of population have been infected - the claim is at that level of infection the entire population is protected from a second wave next winter.




The price to be paid is 400,000 excess deaths or early deaths of already ill people. The price to be paid is the destruction of small business in favour of corporate business. The price to be paid is mass unemployment.The price to be paid is destruction of self-employment within the UK. The price to be paid is multiple waves of infection surges, a punishing cycle of shut-down, open up, shut-down, open up.

Care Homes

In the UK NHS hospitals were turning away people presenting with mild yet uncomfortable symptoms, which were sent back home to self treat. I have heard and been part of a few anecdotal stories of people I know whose relatives were quite ill, did the phone consultation, went into hospital, were checked, and given a confirmed, non-tested diagnosis and sent home to self treat. One case I know of through family connections was an elderly male, with severe chest pains who was prescribed opiates for the pain, and then sent home to self isolate.  Fortunately he has recovered. His family remain well.

Likewise there are plenty of cases of elderly patients who were known to have the infection and were were sent back to care homes. Both of these were policies decided by Government and NHS senior management. Both led to exacerbation of symptomatic cases and excess deaths in many cases.

11,500 deaths and rising with the UK Care home systems, and we have no way of accounting for the numbers of excess deaths from people who died at home, or who went from home to intensive care, having been sent home with symptoms in the first place.

There are questions that must be asked, and answered. Incompetence is one thing, callous indifference another.

We deserve much, much better. The vulnerable people within the UK Health systems, private and public alike deserved much more than merely better - they deserve the fullest logistical and human resourced protections possible. It cannot be a matter of budget if as a State this state is also considering 250 billion spend on it's Nuclear 'Deterrent'.

Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Monday, 18 May 2020

Sunday Times offers Johnson a Get Out of Jail Card - I do not buy it.



Sunday Times published an article this Sunday 17th May that makes a claim to understand the background to the UK Government policy on Corona Virus.

The central claim is that the science advice was focused on influenza. Based on documents released (belatedly) from SAGE meetings. No copy of the documents is produced, no date of the documents is provided, nothing to substantiate the release as genuine or the writers interpretation .as accurate.

The documents may well be genuine.

They might be a late addition.

Do you trust the UK Government?

Who does?

The article tries to portray the decision making process of the UK Government as a similar mistake to one made by pilots who were fixated on one minor issue, who missed a critical issue, leading to the fatal crash of their aeroplane. The UK Science teams were focused on Influenza and did not notice COVID19.

Oh dear!

Blame the Scientists, the Public Health officials. Johnson get out of jail card is played.

"The terminology offers a first hint. The modelling group is called the “scientific pandemic influenza group on modelling”. The key planning document that informed government policy for a decade is called the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy. The review of evidence on whether to shut educational facilities is called the Impact of School Closures on an Influenza Pandemic. A paper on whether to limit public events is called Impact of Mass Gatherings on an Influenza Pandemic."

I don't buy it.

This article is blaming the Scientists.  The article does not mention the consistent lies, the deliberate  policy decisions that repeatedly allowed spread of the infection, the desire to 'make a profit' or the appalling May 10th speech, or the odious briefing of Gavin Williamson the day before the get out of jail free care article was published. Passive aggressive management tactics, manipulative grooming, emotional blackmail. These are the actions of devious and deceitful  people, not the errors of well meaning people.

The article is nothing less than a putrid attempt to give the Government a get out of jail card for the Johnson/Cummings cabal and their supine political appointees posing as Medical Officers and Scientific Advisers.

It does not say what date these minutes are taken from.

They mention March.  They mention early documents. No useful information.

On February 3rd, Boris Johnson mentioned Corona Virus in a speech about Brexit in Greenwich.

By February 3rd the whole world KNEW that COVID19 was nothing like an influenza. Wuhan had been in lock-down for three weeks, as had Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. 

WHO had issue pandemic warnings by this stage.

https://youtu.be/baWbWpOtJnc?t=536 - Watch Johnson declare the UK will not panic because of Corona Virus..

This is the official transcript from Johnson's speech on February 3rd.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-in-greenwich-3-february-2020

Here is the segment pertinent to COVID19.

"And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.

And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role.

We are ready for the great multi-dimensional game of chess in which we engage in more than one negotiation at once and we are limbering up to use nerves and muscles and instincts that this country has not had to use for half a century."

Protect the hoard, let the herd take it on the chin.

Clear as day.

That was and remains the policy of the UK Government. A policy that has led to c.50,000 excess deaths, and is heading for many more than that. Get back to work! Go to school! Be Alert!


Kindest regards

 Corneilius

 "Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."