Showing posts with label elimination strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elimination strategy. Show all posts

Avoiding avoidable harm. Is it really so much to ask?

“How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics in the 20th century.” Aneurin Bevan

Deaths per million, August2021:  does not include cases of long covid or the many other avoidable harms caused by deliberate mismanagement, which is a political choice taking precedence over public health best practice. source

Where we are right now, in the UK.. just the raw truth! Watch this, then read on.


China's population is twice that of  US and EU.

Why are so few people of the Press/News media and government in USUK not taking into account the experience and lessons learned by China, New Zealand, South Korea and the other countries operating Elimination of Community Transmission strategy, and reporting on the successes, and the problems they encounter, and how they resolve those problems?   

When they do comment, why do they appear to deliberately portray these strategies inaccurately and describe them as meaning eradication or Zero Covid, and thus dismiss what is already being done, what is proven to prevent the harms associated with mitigation and 'living with the virus' as 'impossible' or a 'fantasy'?

New Zealand is looking like it's suppressing and eliminating Delta - they are cautiously optimistic. They reveal the efficacy of a caring government, a caring population working together to stop community transmission even as Morrison of Australia, the Murdoch press beloved, tries to denigrate their efforts.

Reports and political commentators often describe those countries as living in isolation', as if they are cut off from the rest of the world. This is clearly not the case. A quarantined border is still allowing human traffic through, even if it limits tourism - consumer goods continue to be shipped across borders. Tourism is a luxury business, it is not a necessity. Indeed internal tourism has increased in pretty much every country, circulating money within economies. For a short term set back, Tourism could be supported to help eliminate community transmission and prevent immense avoidable harms. Instead the tourism industry has become a primary vector of the virus.

As Elimination Strategy functions to leap into action whenever a cluster emerges, usually due to an imported variant, invariably a variant that emerged in the reckless countries, the pundits of USUK et al are quick to crow about how ineffective elimination strategy is, falling silent when the clusters are controlled, and the community transmission is stopped.

The denial and the dismissive attitudes seem to me to be about protecting USUK and other reckless Governments from public scrutiny and close attention, to shield them from an open critical analysis of their deliberate, repeated mismanagement and the huge economic costs of avoidable harms they have deliberately not avoided.

1.8 billion people, c.23% of global population being protected by elimination of community transmission strategies across such a wide variety of economies and cultures is a huge evidence base. 

The USUK mismanagement teams dare not speak of it, honestly.

Freedom and being realistic

Even the 'Freedom!' crew who are highly critical of USUK Government are denying the evidence of China, New Zealand and the other countries, who have experience far less restrictions on their lives citizens of mitigation strategy countries, let alone the adverse health and mortality impacts. Death by Covid is not freedom. 10% of positive cases enduring long Covid is not freedom. So much for freedom. 

Seems to me to be that they are one the same side as the super spreader governments they proclaim against. The spreaders of misinformation are also spreaders of the virus.

Fatalism is understandable

Dr. John Campbell, a youtuber medic who does a decent job of reporting on the evidence from around the Earth, avoids political observations like the plague. So he dare not mention elimination, which he did early on, suggesting UK was insane to not learn from China and East Asia. Now he has abandoned all mention of elimination strategy, and is reliant on vaccine efficacy to get us through to a better situation.

I imagine he’s being ‘realistic’ accepting there’s no way to dislodge this English Government and just getting on with it. 

I get it. He has no option but to get on with his job, which is providing the best information he can find, from the perspective of a medic, a nurse.. Nothing will change, people need best info in order to make better decisions for themselves. Crack on.

But I see that as a form of fatalism, and I simply cannot accept that - and just as I still want to see Blair and the others indicted for war crimes, and even though I know I can’t do that myself, I refuse to let go of the need to see justice done correctly, in full, not so much as punishment but as a preventative - and so I still hold that elimination strategy is feasible, supported by vaccines, and the best way to reduce the avoidable harms that 'living with the virus' mythology leads to.

Stop causing avoidable harm. Is it really so much to ask?

IndependentSAGE is also on youtube, they broadcast a live briefing every Friday afternoon looking at the data, trends and issues, with a Q&A session for press and the public. They are a team of eminent and respected scientists in all the various fields that are affected by Covid, and they are firmly for elimination strategy, rather than 'living with the virus' or 'herd immunity'. 

IndependentSAGE have produced an informative timeline comparison which lays out the Scientific, Epidemiological and Public Health advice offered to English Government and compares it to the actual policy carried out by the English Government.

The situation in England is now that there are close to 25k new PCR confirmed cases daily, going by Government statistics.  ZOE records c. 55k new cases. Current estimates suggest that around 10% of positive cases are likely to contract Long Covid. We don't know how many asymptomatic cases that have not been tested are out and about in the community, people who are probably unaware of their status as potential vectors of infection. The existing test and trace systems are inadequate to the task assigned them.

Daily hospitalisations are currently running at around 750 in England. 

Death by Covid is Horrific

There were 207 Covid deaths in England's hospitals yesterday. How do people die from Covid? Breathlessness, breathing pain, oxygen depletion, headaches, inflammation, secondary infections, organ failure, sepsis: a parade of pain and increasing disability.

This is the thing few people are willing to look at but health workers are forced to see. Death by Covid is very painful indeed, the process is disgustingly awful. There’s no dignity, no peace only suffering often in utter isolation.

The person knows long before they die that they are in deep trauma, unlikely to survive, and that is it's own unique terror - the medical staff spend their days watching frightened people die awful deaths. 

Clap, clap, clap for heroes and no preventative action by government or citizens.

Is there a substantive pay rise in recognition of the extra burden NHS staff are bearing? Is there funding for extra staff to ease the work load of burned out medical staffers? No way. Not with this English government populated by those wealthy enough to take £40,000 holidays, add swimming pools to luxury homes during the summer break, spend hundreds of thousands refurbishing the prime ministers flat as they withdraw £20 'uplift pandemic support' per week from people receiving Universal Credit, which supports as many low paid workers as unemployed people, a benefit employers take profitable delight in.

The situation is similar to a war, with the braided generals at home, sitting in comfort and their combat troops in the trenches, engaged in the reality of combat, who see what it is really like, and then the patriotic civilians who just do not know and cannot therefore understand what war really is at all but who are encouraged to speak about ‘our boys and girls’ and ‘bravery and sacrifice'. 

War is always avoidable.

Every death by Covid is pretty much avoidable.  Stopping the uncontrolled spread of the virus in the community is feasible, and it does not need lockdowns, other than when the strategy fails - and we know why strategy fails.  Each and every death is a horror movie that goes on for days and days and days. Witnessed by medical staff who are powerless to do much more than manage death, and whose insight, wisdom and knowledge is given almost no hearing in offices where Government policy is decided.

Those poor souls. 

English Government cost benefit analysis is accepting one thousand ten days torture ending in death every week.

Can you imagine that as a war price?

Would you accept that?

And what of  our Schools, as they reopen this Friday, and are predicted to become super spreader events, with our children exploited as vectors of spread to attain herd immunity, intentionally so?

Must we accept that future for them?

As a culture, Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, War, Poverty are all Externalised Costs which our children must bear the brunt of, they will pay the price.

This then is the question of our era, in a dark metaphor.

"Have we spent our lives filling our children's shoes with shit, before telling them to go for a long walk?"





Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Suppression vs Mitigation, Acceptable Horror, Externalised Costs - problem solving for whom?


"We need to address the societal well-being of our nation, not just the economic well-being: our people are telling us that politics are not delivering and meeting their expectations. This is not woolly, it’s critical.”  Jacinda Ardern

Amrit Lohia tweeted the following:

Giving everyone "access to water and food" requires socialism. Eradicating SARS-CoV-2 also requires a shift to a socialist model where we recognise our responsibility to protect each other. Tagging in @coreluminous who can probably explain this better than I can.

I replied:  I think you have distilled it into its purest form.

"where we recognise our responsibility to protect each other." 

That is the essence of the situation with regards to COVID, Climate Change, pollution, poverty, environmental degradation, Racism, Misogyny etc.

Then I wrote some more.

I would call it a pro-social model rather than ideological Socialism.


Management of the shared commons implies duty of care to all who share the commons. This demands that decisions on policy and practical implementation are grounded in equity and mutual aid and are based on evidence rather than upon ideological belief or the opinion of any one group.

Externalised Costs
.

Costs incurred by producers or consumers any other actors acting within the shared commons, that are not resolved, that are passed on to others who bear the burden are anti-social, profoundly so.

This is where I part with existing ideological Socialism which seeks equitable pay and conditions for all, whilst still allowing externalised costs to be accrued. Externalised costs is  the root of all the problems we face, globally. 

Resolution will be of that issue will be complex, that's well understood. 

That said it is attachments to power and status which make it more complicated than it needs to be.

Thus a reckoning with power and status lies ahead, it cannot be avoided.

Does this reckoning have to descend into a power struggle?

Only if those who hold asymmetric power choose to make it so.

Those who hold positions of power and status could choose to share that power, and they could manage it slowly enough to empower the corrective changes required that would protect us all as we move through this phase.

That choice is real.

To recap:

Elimination of community transmission is possible.

It's really simple. Virus needs to date a new human host, or it dies out. It is a complex operation to support a population to do EoCT.  Professor Gabriel Scally is a highly respected, deeply experienced public health professional and scholar. He is in no doubt whatsoever that elimination of community transmission is the best possible strategy under the current circumstances, where in the UK we are still at less than 20% population infected, and globally much less than that. There is an immense amount of harm to prevent, to avoid and it makes no sense to push the global population into harms way.



What complicates it are matters of power, wealth and status. That much is clear.

1. there's a world of difference between eradication and elimination of community transmission.


2. New Zealand is not in complete isolation from the rest of the world. Tourism is not an essential human activity. Quarantine can manage necessary travel.

3. Proof of concept is 1.8 billion people who were not faced with multiple national level lockdowns, health care and economic harms over extended periods. 

4. Proof of concept is variants from areas that rejected elimination strategy arriving and breaking through quarantine systems.

5. Australia’s official COVID-19 strategy, suppression, doesn’t have an epidemiological definition. 

“Suppression isn’t a known technical term,” says epidemiologist Raina MacIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Program at the Kirby Institute and Professor of Global Biosecurity.

6. “It’s either elimination or disease control.”

‘Disease control’ means reducing the number of cases to a locally acceptable level, but community transmission may still occur. 

7. In England that successful disease control is defined by Johnson as being 1000 deaths by Covid19 per week. No mention of the acceptable number of cases of chronic disease, Long Covid.


8. So, if I was one of those 'acceptable deaths' would I agree with Johnson?

If you or your beloved, or your son or daughter was one of those 'acceptable deaths' would you agree with Johnson?

9.  And the other more harsh reality of each death by covid is this:

These are truly awful, horrific deaths. Really, really grim.

https://vox.com/2021/2/20/22280817/covid-19-deaths-us-nursing-home-icu-ventilator

Oxygen depletion, organ failure, death. Terror, despair and horror over the course of ten days or so. One thousand times every week. Thousands of families. Hundreds of ICU teams

Who decides these deaths are acceptable? On what metric?

10. In another context, how many terrorist bombings would be considered an acceptable level?

Is it the case that the 241,000 Afghani deaths of the past 20 years are acceptable to UK citizens, but the 404 combat deaths of troops are not? 

11. Who makes these calls about policy and public health strategy, which have such immense impact the shared commons, and on what basis? 

12. Is there a need now for urgent collective decision making and collective action to prevent further avoidable harm, when we are in a situation that affects us all?

Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

A general strike : wishful thinking that we English would do what it takes to protect our children from harm.

This English Government failed to protect the the elders across the country who were living within care homes. There were over 530,000 tests carried out in the UK by 20 April 2020, yet this Government couldn’t test 25,000 people discharged from hospitals into care homes, after they had seen it spread rapidly through care homes in Italy, France and America.

“How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics in the 20th century.” Aneurin Bevan

This was deliberate action taken, in spite of ample well evidenced warnings and advice. 

Now as we arrive at the end of summer, 2021, it's about all our children. 

School starts in a few days. This English Government has failed to make our primary and secondary schools Covid safe. Scotland's children are already in school, and Delta Variant Covid cases are rising rapidly. The same is guaranteed to happen here. Delta Variant is having a significant impact on children in America and in Israel, and elsewhere. Many parents are at their wits ends, really distressed by the current situation.


What will it take to get the adults of England to step up and protect the children of England from being forced into harms way?

Since February 2020 this English Government has refused to place effective quarantine restrictions on our borders, and knowingly allowed the virus to be seeded into and across the country on multiple occasions, citing 'free trade' rather than 'free movement' as the basis of their decision.

"Free trade is being choked and that is no fault of the people, that’s no fault of individual consumers, I am afraid it is the politicians who are failing to lead.

And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.

And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role."

There it is. We do not need, in this internet age, to travel during a pandemic. Tourism is lethal luxury. Business meetings can be conducted online, screen to screen. We can still buy and sell freely within and across tightly quarantined borders - goods can flow in spite of the global pandemic. Goods are not a vector of transmission - human beings are.

As it happens the primary block on the flow of goods within England is Brexit. Irony upon irony, as tourists carrying the virus travel freely and workers who could move goods are impeded.

This English Government refused to make resources available to enable find, test, trace, support and isolate as a local government and local Health Authority run system, designed to stop community transmission of the virus locally across England.

Instead this English Government deliberately outsourced the essential epidemic utilities of PPE supply, of testing and of contact tracing through private business contracts which were handed to crony's - to inexperienced people previously associated with the government, thus wasting precious time, wasting borrowed money and leading directly to avoidable fatalities, avoidable chronic disease and avoidable economic hardships as those losses of PPE impacted health care, the lack of test and trace lost track of viral transmission and as infected people continued to go to work, rather than isolate because there was no financial salary protection incentive in place for them to do so. All 100% predictable and avoidable. Deliberate action.

This English Government Failed to protect the UK Population. Deliberate action in spite of ample evidenced warnings and advice.

This English Government Failed to protect UK School Children. Deliberate action in spite of ample evidenced warnings and advice.

This English Government Failed to protect Afghani citizens who helped with the occupation and the utterly corrupt attempt at imposing Democratic Government upon Afghanistan. Deliberate action in spite of ample evidenced warnings and advice.

Defence minister Ben Wallace ignored a letter written three months ago by 45 retired senior officers requesting that urgent action be taken immediately to evacuate those Afghani who worked with the British Military and other staff over the past 20 years, before drawing down troop numbers.

Former Chief of the General Staff Lord Dannatt speaking on evacuation of Afghan interpreters: 

“Many of us have been pleading with the government in the last two or three years and more vociferously in the last month or two to get this aspect of it right, because our reputation will be trashed, our moral position compromised and in future conflicts people will be very wary about potentially coming to work with us.

When 45 senior military retired officers including many ex chief of defence staff write an open letter to the PM, Foreign Secretary, Home Sec, Defence Sec- [on interpreters] and it’s not really taken seriously then I think there’s a gap in who’s listening to whom in govt atm."

All deliberate actions - not incompetence, at least not the kind where they tried, honestly, and failed. And then took considered corrected action to address the failures. Nothing of the sort. Instead we are treated to gaslighting, scapegoating, blame avoidance, denial of responsibility - all deliberate action.

Keir Starmer has supported this Government all the way through. No ifs, no buts.
This English Government, the enfeebled Parliament, the supine opposition: the enemy within.

This English Government: the most consistent threat to the health and safety of the English people. Inaction on Climate Change, Environmental degradation, Air Pollution, Plastics, Processed Foods, COVID, Austerity and amongst all this, they are exporting weaponry for warfare in Yemen and elsewhere - all in pursuit of profits, as English billionaires increase their wealth and power and more and more English citizens come to rely upon 'uplifting' food banks. 

Treasury head Rishi Sunak installs luxuries in one of his homes during Parliament summer holidays, whilst planning to remove £20 'uplift' from Universal Credit payments to people in poverty. Foreign Secretary Raab on a £40,000 beach lounger as Afghanistan is allowed to fall into chaos. 

This English Government: a toxic, predatory network of institutionalised bullies, their institutions, their working class mercenaries and their middle class enablers.

Until we, the English people admit this, and for as long as we, the English people, deny this, it will continue. Nationalistic cant and flag waving in the face of this much harm causation is deeply, deeply anti-patriotic!

Rioting, appealing for change is all futile. Neither tactic has ever delivered the results the English people needed. Not once.

The best leverage we have is collective solidarity. 

The best tool we have is a general strike, specifically a rent/mortgage/school strike, citing two frameworks - the UN Convention on the Rights of The Child, and The Right to Health, to protect our children and citing Duty of Care, Malfeasance and Misconduct in Public Office to bring this English Government that is causing so much harm to heel.

This is unbridled, optimistic wishful thinking on my part, because to be honest, I really do not know how we resolve this.

I am at a loss on how to prevent the next wave of death and disease that this English Government is about to inflict upon the English population via our children.

Here are some elements of Laws about protecting our children's rights, their health and safety, asserting the duty of care that all schools (and Governments) must uphold,  that I think every parent ought to become more familiar with


2. https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1794/rr-1 : defining what elimination of community transmission means

3. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext : evidence that elimination of community transmission strategy prevents the harms associated with 'slow spread' mitigation policy aka 'living with the virus' ideology.


5. https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/defences-duress-and-necessity : What rights, duties or protections do we have, under law, to prevent a greater harm or a greater crime?

6. https://www.lawtonslaw.co.uk/resources/misfeasance-in-public-office : Malfeasance in Public Office

7. https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/misconduct-public-office : Misconduct in Public Office

We must build a solidarity like none ever seen in English history. 

A general strike : wishful thinking that we English would really do what it takes to protect our children from harm.


Kindest regards

Corneilius

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"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

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People's welfare, mental health and general stress levels does much better under elimination strategy.

Why not stop the spread of the virus, as a way to both prevent further fatality and disease and to avoid future lockdowns, now? People's welfare, mental health and general stress levels do much better under elimination strategy. 

These are very difficult times, for everyone.

And leading into the spread of the virus, and the disease, there was a surge of chronic stress induced by a culture of acquisitive competitive 'meritocracy' grounded in free market fundamentalism exacerbated by 'Austerity' policies mandating vast cuts to social welfare, health and social care programs based on a series of outright lies about fiscal policy and fiscal possibility pre-existed the pandemic. 

Allowing the virus to spread led to repeated lockdowns which added to the stress the more vulnerable among our population were dealing with. Stopping the spread, as Vietnam, New Zealand and a good number of other countries chose has demonstrably led to much better outcomes, on every available measure bar international tourism.


Why are the English Government and others wilfully ignoring the widespread evidence that is right before our eyes, the evidence that 1.8 billion people are being protected by elimination of community transmission strategy. 

How could they all ignore something so blatantly real?

The UK governments, the UK Press News Media, the Labour Party front bench, The Churches, the Green Party , the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party and all broadcasters of TV and Radio refuse to bring that evidence up for detailed discussion. 

What is that?

How could anyone let that slide?

This is to me where the government position is weakest.

They cannot argue all that evidence away without lying or making up stuff .

That is why they dismiss it out of hand, refuse to discuss it. They can’t handle it safely for their objective, because any acknowledgement of that evidence undermines their positions, and their policies.

Why do they dismiss Elimination of Community Transmission?

I think it is in part because doing so requires that the state resources and empowers local government to support all the people to stop the spread, to be helpful, to prioritise help for the local population to take best care of one another and that is too close to socialist practice for neoliberal free market fundamentalists to allow. That cat must remain in the bag.

How does the language of  'freedom' and 'restrictions' emerge to dominate the public discourse, that is to say the discourse published by official news media, mirrored by leading politicians and pundits. What does it seek to 'stimulate' in significant cohorts of the population?


Where the evidence leads is that stopping the spread of the virus in the community offers the best chances of freedom preserved, and allowing the virus to spread reduces all our freedoms, not least when the spread of infection runs out of control, impacting services visibly. For the English government that visibility is about optics, not people's welfare. 

It's not a good look, denial.

In my view Sir Keir 'less with the evidence' Starmer is daily betraying the working class he purports to represent by not bringing that evidence up every time he sits opposite Johnson, every time he speaks to the press. He is also betraying everyone else.

Just one short sentence is all he needs to say "Elimination Strategy is working for 1.8 Billion people" and  "You do know that spread is placing them at greater risk than their own governments are." 

I even have a pithy slogan for him.

"Stopping the Spread is Spreading the Love!" 

One breaths worth of words, at the start or end of every briefing, statement or public utterance. Such a small effort, for such a huge benefit.

Never in the field of population level health care has anyone avoided so small an effort in order to avoid so huge a benefit to so many whilst blatantly supporting a government that is causing immense  deliberate harm whilst pretending to be a political opposition. Not quite as pithy as the Churchill original.

The dynamic of the slow spreader Governments, the English, Brazilian, Indian and other NeoLiberal Free Market Fundamentalist  governments who for whatever reason have chosen to allow spread of the virus have literally made the virus more dangerous and the populations they govern more vulnerable on very front. 

What drives that kind of policy decision making, most recently articulated by Savid Javid, the English Health Secretary, as not 'cowering before the virus'. The little bully. 

"With income distribution at current levels, roughly half of the working population in both the US and the UK would be unable to survive without external help. Most people regard this as a sign that the system isn’t working properly, and they view providing the help as an intrinsic part of a civilized society.

To a market fundamentalist, though, these people are simply not worth what it costs to keep them alive. Their existence is not cost-effective, and being forced to sustain them is an unjustified burden.

Market forces, they say, are meritocratic – and the problem is that these people have too little merit.

Ira Sohn, Professor of Economics at Montclair State University, has pointed out that with technological advances, many of these people (i.e. people who have to work for a living) will no longer be needed at all:

The prospects for adopting labour-saving technologies in many of the labour-intensive sectors in the economy are improving annually: self-checkout at supermarkets, self-check-in and -out at hotels, self-ordering and bill settlement in restaurants, self-administered health diagnostic tests and so on all translate into a reduced need for workers per dollar of gross domestic product on the one hand, and fewer total workers along with higher levels of GDP on the other.

Horses were used extensively on the farm and in transport in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century America and Europe, but once mechanization and electrification were implemented, and the railroad, automobiles and buses became commercially viable as transport alternatives, owning horses became a hobby of the rich, and the horse population declined quickly and dramatically.

The same can probably be said about humans in the 21st century: we just don’t need that many of them – and, in the rich countries, they are expensive to ‘produce’ (prenatal and postnatal care), ‘assemble’ (nurture and educate), and ‘maintain’ (from adolescence to death). As technology continues to become ever more capable and most humans, frankly, do not, there is less and less need for workers to produce the goods and services required by society.

source : https://99-percent.org/what-is-the-market-fundamentalist-agenda/ 

Does that fit the dynamic of the current English Government's policy direction?

There is a good case for Elimination strategy countries to impose sanctions on the spreaders, for reckless endangerment.

The 'try to control a slow spread' countries are more dangerous to the people than the virus needs to be. 

It is a try out, as in it is a trial, as in a well-dodgy experiment based on a fallacious position - ignore known evidence and let's see what happens.

They are exacerbating matters on every front, deliberately. Worse they are taking a huge risk because we know that the virus's evolutionary pressure will find ways to escape vaccines precisely because it is allowed to spread.
 
And it is the spread among the vaccinated who have not yet met the virus where that evolutionary step will occur, not among the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated have already generated variants out of our various conditions. Proving that the virus can interact with different environments and make changes that increase it's ability to thrive.

Suggesting to the vaccinated that they should go out and risk contracting the infection in order to assure economic recovery is a nonsensical suggestion. The economy would be in much better shape adapted to a successful elimination of community spread strategy.

Tourism, for example, does not have to be international.  There are plenty examples of tourism consumers and providers successfully adapting to the current situation, where people take their holidays more locally, putting cash back into their own economies.

All live events and hospitality industries do much, much better under elimination strategy.

Health care does much, much better under elimination strategy.

Everything that affects ordinary people's welfare, mental health and general stress levels does much better under elimination strategy.

Remember each of us is not safe until all of us are safe. This applies to this virus as it does to the matter of climate change, for example. Or poverty. Or air pollution.

Stopping the Spread is spreading the Love.

Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Grooming others vulnerabilities is as low as it gets, in terms of everyday abuse of power."

The Virus will eventually force governments to adopt a Suppression Strategy. Duty of Care applies universally.

The Virus will eventually force governments to adopt a suppression of community transmission strategy.  

Duty of care is a universal humane social value, from the family to the village, from the country to the city, a fundamental ethic and the benchmark of every healthy Government, and of every healthy adult, even if some Governments and some adults fail to meet that measure. Their failures do not alter the universality of duty of care.

The Virus is stronger than neo-Liberal Free Market Governments, their ideology and their deliberate mismanagement of local epidemics, and of the global pandemic.

How the mighty are exposed by a minute organism. The Virus is telling us all - we are in this together.

Breaking  community transmission locally, nationally and globally is the go-to evidence led, grounded, proven strategy. It works. It is not to be confused with eradication. Zero Covid is used as a term to indicate heading towards the lowest possible incidence, rather than total eradication. Beware those who twist words to sustain the unsustainable. They say eradication is impossible. The dare not speak of elimination strategy. Allowing community transmission to persist, in an attempt to manage a slow spread is always going to lead to uncontrolled surges, and is unsustainable.

To repeatedly impose that slow spread upon a community, or an entire countries population, in spite of the evidence of disease, long Covid and fatalities as a direct result of 'slowing the spread'... is psychopathic behaviour.


Vaccines reduce severity of some aspects of acute disease, but do not appear to reduce long-covid occurrence. Vaccines quite clearly do not impede transmission.

Thus while it is true that vaccines on their own do reduce severity of some of the harms, be it disease are fatality, it is also very clear now that when used alone or as the primary intervention whilst excluding elimination or suppression strategy, the vaccine will still allow the virus to persist in the community, and that comes with the potential for variants emerging that can alter the situation radically. It is a known unknown. 

It is epidemiological stupidity to not avoid that situation when we know we can do so. It is epidemiological common sense to avoid that situation when we know we can do so.

Every country that allows spread is creating the conditions the virus thrives in. 

Johnson and Javid's assertion that they hope that rapid mass infection now will prevent a greater surge in the Autumn is lethal, venal nonsense. They are not public health experts. They are salesmen of false prospectus's by trade.

1000 avoidable fatalities a week.  What would the English population have done had that been the death toll of British Troops in Afghanistan or Iraq?

The English Government and their media allies are purveyors of anti-social, anti-scientific nonsense.

#JohnsonVariant #ZerroCovid

Every Government that delays implementing an effective elimination of community transmission loses social and moral legitimacy by that delay, on a daily basis. Every avoidable horrific death is a black mark against them. Every News outlet that masks that illegitimacy and covers for those delays is betraying the basic tenets of honest news journalism and descends into propaganda and amoral cant.

Illegitimate government has only the option of force and guile to remain in power. 

Crunch time for Western Industrial Democracy lies ahead.

Mike Ryan, WHO director, puts it bluntly, answering a BBC journalist.

Mass infection.

Lancet article  : Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young 

"We have previously pointed to the dangers of relying on immunity by natural infection, and we have five main concerns with the UK Government's plan to lift all restrictions at this stage of the pandemic.

1. First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. 

2. Second, high rates of transmission in schools and in children will lead to significant educational disruption, adding to and  exacerbating chronic stress amongst pupils who are already presenting with clinical mental health problems in growing numbers. 

3. Third, preliminary modelling data suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.

4. Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves.

5. Fifth, as deprived communities are more exposed to and more at risk from COVID-19, these policies will continue to disproportionately affect the most vulnerable and marginalised, deepening inequalities."

The full article is well worth the read.

Be warned against the tactic of citing the harms of mismanagement to argue the case for more mismanagement, or even worse mismanagement.

This image lays out the Johnson pattern.

A disease requiring a socialist solution!

Elimination strategy is a collectivist solution to a collective problem. Power and resources must be devolved to the locale, funding supplied by the central administration. Crony contracts are individualistic, minting new millionaires by the many dozens, whilst providing inefficient service. Test and trace is a farce, hospitals do not have adequate supplies of N95 masks, which by could have been manufactured in the UK.

That is what is underneath the globalised Neo-Liberal rejection of Elimination Strategy, and the kicker for me is that I think that they know this.  They are conscious of this. Fully aware of the implications. The just don't care about our lives, as ordinary human beings, as persons, as families and communities. Indeed the more divided we are, the more secure in their power they are. Misinformation comes from government, flows through parliament unchallenged. Disinformation flows on-line and in some news media. Omicron symptoms are not 'mild'.

The Neoliberals reject Elimination Strategy because it verifies the social material validity of genuine social care as a material reality. It repudiates individualism.

The Human species thrives best when we co-operate in our care for one another.

Without hosts, the virus dies out.

This virus 'learns' from every new situation it meets, but without hosts it cannot learn those new tricks, without new hosts it dies out.  With a reduced population of hosts those risks are minimised. 

The Johnson policy is Tinder for the Virus seeking new dating partners.

The Johnson Government is determined to provide the virus with the maximum numbers of hosts, based on spurious claims of 'protecting the economy' with a 'herd immunity' strategy. That is exonomic and epidemiological nonsense.

Elimination strategy, I repeat, prevents most of the social harms associated with Mitigation policy, and it reduces the economic harms of an epidemic. This has been proven beyond any doubt.

Every country that stops the spread in the community (with  efficient well resourced Elimination strategy - Find, Test, Trace, Quarantine, Isolate, Treat and Support) is doing that which the virus cannot surmount.  It cannot live, expand and develop more effective variants if it cannot find new hosts.

Trying to live with this virus is epidemiological stupidity.  It is inviting  trouble, indefinitely.

In this pandemic, every State has layered duties of care.

1. The resources must be made available to everyone to stop the spread of the virus within the community. This must be so, in order that each State can protect it's own people and their economy - this is what China, Vietnam, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand and others are doing. Elimination strategy is not a utopic solution :  the task is complex because there are many needs to be met in order to avoid avoidable harm.

These needs are not competing needs. The needs of children for education within Covid safe schools is not in competition with the need for care homes to be equipped with HEPA filters, and staffed by carers who are largely vaccinated, and supplied with PPF2 masks as a minimum. 

The needs of the entertainment industry are not in competition with the needs of Hospitals. Keeping hospitals free of Covid cases is the same need as enabling live entertainment to operate safely.

The only competing needs are those of between the welfare of the population and those of power enhancement and profiteering.

2. Another duty of care is to never export the pathogen- this is a duty of care to other states, to the global community of Humanity.  That means tightly quarantined borders for people traffic. PCR checks prior to embarking on international travel, quarantine on arrival. This can be done. It is expensive, yes, but it puts money back into the economy. It is money well spent in public health terms.

This does not have to impact freight trade to any significant degree of disruption. Indeed shut downs due to failure to control spread do more harm to commercial activity than quarantined borders does. Extra care yes, major disruptions no.

3. Vaccines must be made widely available, in every country, Intellectual Property rights must be waived and the tech, the know how and the expertise to produce medicines, and to react quickly to new variants must be shared equitably across all of humanity. 

These duties of care are humane baselines, a benchmark for and of Humanity.

These duties of care are eminently do-able. They can be met. They must be met.

The evidence is that these duties of care are being met in some cases. 1.8 billion people are being protected, and their economies are being protected and they are not being subjected to mass infection, huge levels of disease, chronic long term disease and fatalities, with immense economic harms that follow from repeated national level shutdowns. 

Those countries operating Elimination Strategy are being placed at risk by those countries that have rejected Elimination Strategy. States and their Governments that chose instead to attempt to control 'slow spread' of the virus, described as 'mitigation' aka living with the virus are putting the whole population of humanity at greater risk. Avoiding the avoidable harms is common sense. The decent thing to do.

That choice reflects a denial of reality, science, epidemiology and public health best practice.

Such control is impossible. It is not possible to manage 'slow spread' of this infectious virus. 

Denial is not a river in North Africa.

In England, the primary obstacle is the English Conservative and Unionist Government, the news media, Parliamentary unwillingness and inability to confront the Government with the evidence that elimination strategy works best, by every measure, and the proliferation of misinformation, disinformation and woo. That's quite an obstacle.

The English Government of today remind me of the English Government during the Irish and Bengali Famines. They say the same kinds of things, make similar promises they do not intend to keep, and they accept the collateral damage the citizens must bear, for them to remain in Power.

I have argued last year that the behaviour of this English Johnson Government is malfeasance in public office, with lethal consequences for hundreds of thousands of people, serious long term adverse health issues for millions. and economic harms for tens of millions. 

I argued they should be arrested, charged, indicted and held on remand and a government of national unity installed to operate a proper elimination strategy in order to prevent further harms.

I argued that when the death toll was still under 30,000 and we had minimal public data on Long Covid. I was, sad to report, correct. I hate that I am correct because the harms are unbearable, more so because they were all avoidable.

Both climate and the virus are telling Humanity - you are all in this together, and you will only get through it, working together, by looking out for each other.


Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Letter to UK and Irish News Papers : Elimination Strategy is proven - why gamble with our lives?


What will he do? What must we endure? Why?

To the Editor

The evidence from a number of detailed studies shows that countries that opt for rapid action to eliminate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by  transparently engaging the well informed support of their citizens  better protect their health, their  economies and minimise restrictions on civil liberties compared with those that strive for mitigation aka 'living with the virus'. 

1.8 billion people's health and their economies have been spared the ravages inflicted upon the UK, USA, Brazil and the EU.

Importantly, elimination has been framed as a civic solidarity approach that will restore civil liberties the soonest, protect the healthy and the vulnerable and stabilise the economy; this focus on common purpose is frequently neglected in the political debate in these islands.

Stopping the spread is spreading the love.

In the UK and Ireland, and elsewhere, a new variant that is more transmissible, that is showing signs of significant vaccine escape, is surging and there are no mechanisms in place to suppress it.

Why is it that the evidence for elimination strategy is being ignored by Governments, Parliaments and the bulk of News Media?

Are we to endure more death and disease?

To what end does it serve to set the bar at 'living with the virus'?

Why must we gamble with citizens lives in such manner?

Yours sincerely,

Corneilius Crowley

(Address with the Editor.)

It's beyond belief: Dido Harding - the Conservative crony who oversaw the catastrophe of Test and Trace - is applying to run the NHS. Dr. Rachel Clarke - who has seen first hand what the government did to the NHS and country during the pandemic - beautifully rips apart this absolute affront. Rachel points out that prior to the Covid19 Epidemic, the NHS waiting lists were in the region of 4 million cases. Also heads up on Michael Gove's plan to rerig the NHS in a top down manner, led by Sajid Javid, the Duetche Bank executive who helped crash the banks in 2008 who has taken over from super spreader Snogger Hancock.
13 Minutes. Beautiful. Clarity.



#Sajid_Javid_is_not_the_answer
#COVID19
#JohnsonMustGo

Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Hit The Road Matt, Sajid!: end Mitigation Strategy, start Elimination Strategy to prevent more harms

Elimination Strategy is proven to prevent the harms that mitigation strategy has demonstrably caused. 

Misfeasancenonfeasance, and malfeasance are types of failure to discharge public obligations existing by common lawcustom, or statute Misconduct in Public Office is a criminal offence in England and Wales.

In a global pandemic, the government of every country has a dual duty of care. Firstly, they must work with the population to stop the spread of the pathogen in order to protect their health and their economies and secondly they must ensure they do not export the pathogen, which is a duty of care they owe to the global community.

Failures

March 2020 :same media, organisation, different headlines, similar policy of mitigation, 
elimination strategy rejected, with attendant harms not avoided.

This is incontrovertibly true. 

The evidence is there for all to see. On every possible measure, human or systemic, elimination strategy delivers much better outcomes. This is beyond all doubt true.


Evidence suggests that countries that opt for rapid action to eliminate SARS-CoV-2—with the strong support of their inhabitants—also better protect their populations health, their economies and minimise restrictions on civil liberties compared with those that strive for mitigation.

This chart shows the basics


FigureCOVID-19 deaths, GDP growth, and strictness of lockdown measures for OECD countries choosing SARS-CoV-2 elimination versus mitigation

The Lancet report lays out the evidence, fully referenced. Read it. Knowledge is better than belief.

"Among OECD countries, liberties were most severely impacted in those that chose mitigation, whereas swift lockdown measures—in line with elimination—were less strict and of shorter duration (figure). Importantly, elimination has been framed as a civic solidarity approach that will restore civil liberties the soonest; this focus on common purpose is frequently neglected in the political debate.

Evidence suggests that countries that opt for rapid action to eliminate SARS-CoV-2—with the strong support of their inhabitants—also better protect their health and their economies and minimise restrictions on civil liberties compared with those that strive for mitigation"

That this was predicted in January, February and March 2020 is also quite clearly true.

It's not rocket science, it is epidemiology and public health best practice.

It was why Australian State Governments chose elimination strategy and eventually beat down the Australian Federal Government's Mitigation policy choice. They acted wisely in opposing the Morrison/Murdoch policy line.

It was what China had done, and was what Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South and North Korea had all chosen. Protect the population to protect the economy.

Stopping the Spread is Spreading the Love

Stop the spread of the virus within the community - track every case, trace all contacts, test all contacts, quarantine contacts, isolate the infected in prepared treatment facilities designed to prevent exacerbation of symptoms and disease - chase the virus until it can find no new hosts.

Maintain a tightly quarantined border - goods can pass, people must be checked, and quarantine monitored.

All of which was done without any Vaccine.

Slow spread is lethal

So I am writing today, from England, as we observe an exponential growth surge of the Delta Variant, a variant only possible because Governments chose to allow the virus to spread and rejected elimination strategy.  The English Government are gambling with the lives of the population and with the wealth of the economy.

Malfeasance

They have made a bet with very uncertain odds.

Their bet is that the vaccine will reduce harms to an 'acceptable level'.  When just under half of the population is unvaccinated, and of the other half, only half are double dosed, with supplies and delivery systems stretched to their limit, even as a surge of the Delta Variant is under way. That's a very dodgy bet indeed.

The Education Secretary advises that masks are no longer mandatory in schools and the Health Secretary, 'Snogger' Hancock suggests ending all restrictions and leaving it to 'personal responsibility'.

'Acceptable Level' is meaningless when already the UK as seen 150,000 excess fatalities, of which 127,000 are directly attributable to COVID19 - a truly frightening and horrific way to die - and in addition we are seeing 2 million cases of Long COVID, with 350,000 cases of severe disease that appears to be chronic.

How much more of this are we to endure? How is any of this 'acceptable'?

Then there's the financial losses incurred by millions of people, entirely driven by Government policy decisions, in a wide range of industries. Is all of that 'acceptable' now?

Who loses, who wins in this casino of health and wealth?

Crony Capitalism is obviously one winner.

The Good Law Project is exposing in court what the Government has kept under wraps, the crony capitalism that is gouging profits from an imperiled population, whilst the pro-Government media is under reporting what should be known in every household in the land. The Government are borrowing on your good name, and their mates are shunting a significant portion of that cash off-shore via private contractors and sub contractors.

Pro Government News Media organisations owned by billionaires are losing money in order to maintain this degree of government support - and none of the leading editorials of any newspaper are calling for elimination strategy, which is what would prevent the harms we see daily.

During the past 16 months the English Billionaire class have seen their wealth increase by more than 1/3rd in 2020-21.  The Millionaire Club has seen an expansion too. They can afford to lose money supporting the current English Government because they are raking it in, in spite of the harms to the general population.

Who loses?

There are more children 'qualifying' for Free School Meals. Food bank dependency has grown, food banks in the UK saw a 47% increase in need during the crisis. Unemployment has surged even as the number of millionaires has grown.. 

Social Support systems are at breaking point after a decade of deliberate cut backs, carried out under the guise of a lie, Austerity, an act of Sado-Monetarism, by a government that is unrepentant and a continuing source of harm. 

Women bear the brunt of all this, as carers and frontline staff, as essential key workers and as low income workers who cannot survive on Statuary Sick Pay, and thus cannot afford to isolate if they suspect they are ill, possibly with covid19. There is no immediate economic or moral or emotional support for low income people who really ought to be isolating. 

The English government portrays such support as doling out freebees to individuals, rather than as part of a series of actions that protect the whole community. Gaslighting the population, trying to make people feel ashamed of asking for support.

Is snogging an criminal offence?

Matt Hancock is filmed in a sexual embrace with his lover, within his offices and some people call for his resignation. Hancock makes an apology, in writing, but does not present himself in public. Johnson accepts the apology, and says the matter is closed.

I disagree.

I say - arrest Matt Hancock, drag him from his office, bring him to a police station, charge him with Gross Malfeasance or Misconduct in Public Office and Corporate Manslaughter, and place him on remand, in Belmarsh Prison.

Hit The Road Matt


(Hit the road, Matt and don't you come back no more
no more, no more, no more)
(Hit the road, Matt and don't you come back no more)

Woah, Matt, oh Matt, don't treat us so mean
You're the meanest health minister that we've ever seen
because you tel us only  lies
virus spread far and wide
chorus
Woah Matt, listen, Matt, don't ya treat us this-a way
we'll be in Court for sure some day
We're really angry with you 'cause it's understood
You ain't got no morals, you just ain't no good
chorus
Woah Matt, Kissing, Matt, it's not a crime to snog you say
Your crony contracts are unlawful.  the Courts did say
We're really angry with you 'cause it's understood
You ain't got no morals, you just ain't no good
And because you always lied
a hundred thousand died

Who ever is chosen to take over the role of Health Secretary MUST end this harmful folly of 'mitigation' and 'living with the virus' which is an approach that rushes towards harm rather than avoiding harm. I do not hold much hope that this will happen. 

The current Conservative and Unionist Party and indeed, Keirless Starmer's front bench opposition show no signs of ever admitting the evidence that elimination strategy works, is proven and is, in the UK, eminently doable. Undoubtedly more people will die horrific deaths, long COVID will increase as the virus spreads. 

We are doomed to 'live with this Government', and must resort to doing our best as individuals to avoid being harmed and to avoid causing harm. 

Stopping the spread is spreading the love.

Julian Assange.

I know, I am howling at the moon again. Screaming into the wind. But I cannot stay silent, I cannot and will not recede into mute impotent fury. I much prefer loud impotent fury. Even if my audience is small. Even if I am screaming to myself.

Here's an idea - let's do a prisoner swapsie.  Release Julian Assange.

And make room in Belmarsh for Johnson, the entire Cabinet, the culpable Downing Street Cabinet Office advisory teams, the editors of News Media that rejected Elimination Strategy, UsForThem Lobbyists and many others.

Instruct Parliament to form a National Unity Government tasked with implementing elimination strategy and when we finally do eliminate community transmission within the British Isles, let us sit back and enjoy the public trials, and hug one another, freely.

#ArrestMattHancock #FreeJulianAssange Arrest Hancock, set Julian Assange free. A crazy idea! Totally unrealsitic. Fantasy la la land. Nonetheless Thiis speaks to the venality of the English Ruling Establishment : Blairs Freedom, Assange's persecution, Hancock's pension and resignation fee and the rejection of elimination strategy as the way to manage this epidemic are inextricably linked to Starmer's current position and his support for the English Government, and for Israeli State Military violence, among other things.

To be honest, I wouldn't want Keirlessness Starmer defending me in court. Would you?

Update: The new Health Secretary!


The new Health Secretary is Ayn Rand fan, Sajid Javid, former investment banker, CDO peddler, '08 Crasher, serial short term Cabinet Minister and general right wing neo-Liberal Free Market opportunist.

Richard Murphy outlines the kind of policy position Mr. Javid will bring to the Health portfolio.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/06/28/sajid-javid-helped-bring-this-country-to-its-knees-once-no-doubt-he-will-be-seeking-to-do-so-again/

"Sajid Javid is now the Health Secretary,and it has to be noted that  his prior experience was in trading the financial instruments that crashed the world economy in 2008.

And he was not a minor player. He was a major player at a major bank, worthy of having press releases issued about his career progression. In 2008 he helped bring down the world economy: no one else but bankers did that. Deutsche in London was right in the middle of that.

Now this Ayn Rand reading banker is making the decisions on whether or not the economy will reopen. And he says his I aim is to 'get back to normal'.

What? The normal where people whose only experience is in making a deal on a computer screen, the consequences of which they are utterly indifferent to, is what is defined as normal?"

Should Sajid Javid Rand really be appointed as Health Secretary?

https://gezwinstanley.wordpress.com/tag/sajid-javid/ apt blog article on Mr. Javid and his attraction to Ayn Rand, a 'thinker' whose 'philosophy' amounts to a rabid justification for absolute selfishness, cited by those who think nothing of using Wealth as a weapon against everything they dislike, despise and fear - for the neo-liberal billionaire freedom is the right to do what you will with your own property, especially as owners of the land and  rulers of the people that inhabit it. A conquerors creed.


"So, after Matt Hancock’s humiliating resignation (which preserves his pension and severance pay), our Tory Government has just appointed Sajid Javid as the new Health Secretary?

What we are NOT being told, of course, is that Mr Javid is ideologically committed to the total destruction of the NHS.

"Mr Javid is a dedicated follower of the US “thinker” Ayn Rand (apparently he makes a point of re-reading a key scene from Ayn Rand’s novel “The Fountainhead” twice a year). Ayn Rand’s system of thought (which styles itself as “Objectivism”) is an extreme form of right wing libertarianism in which selfishness is regarded as the ultimate virtue from which the whole of morality is derived

Rand’s ideas are revered by many tax and regulation avoiding, and privatisation loving, billionaires, who then fund think tanks and political parties aiming to quietly promote such ideas the world over.

So now we now have a Health Secretary who is an adherent of this philosophy, who therefore thinks that anyone who needs healthcare, but can’t afford to pay for it, is a “looter”, part of Atlas’s burden, who should perish. Who really opposes socialised healthcare as an evil.

And our Government have made this appointment while we are still fighting a pandemic, and when yet another major reorganisation of the NHS is looming. How late, or non-existent, would our lockdowns have been with Mr Javid in charge? Will Big Business, via the new Integrated Care System boards, essentially now take over the NHS, with all that could imply for moving to a more “American” model?

The Tories are clearly intent on destroying the NHS, and lying while they do it. For most of us and our loved ones, at least those of us who have so far survived Tory austerity and the pandemic, this is literally an existential crisis"

One Mr. Javid's awful attempts at governance was ordering research into the ethnicity of child grooming gangs,as an appeal to right wing Daily Mail voters.rather than researching why grooming gangs exist in every city and in many towns, and remain largely un-challenged.

As Home Secretary Mr. Javid ordered research into why men convicted of grooming-gang sex crimes are disproportionately of Pakistani origin. Mr. Javid said at the time  that establishing the “particular characteristics” of the perpetrators was “critical to our understanding” of offending in places including Rotherham, Telford and Newcastle. He made the commitment in a letter to Sarah Champion, the Labour MP who was strongly criticised for stating that the country “has a problem with British Pakistani men raping and exploiting white girls”.

As it turned out, research proved that the majority of such activity in England is perpetrated by white British and White European gangs.

His  Randian opportunism outweighed his concern for the welfare of the most vulnerable among our children and our youth.We can expect more from where that came from in the coming months and years, if he remains in post that long. The prospect is awful.

Hit the road, Sajid.

He is totally the wrong person in the wrong government to manage our health care systems in the midst of this epidemic/pandemic, if we wanted it to be managed well.

They all are.That much is obvious.

Hit the road, predaTory Party, it is understood, you ain't got no morals and you ain't no good, you are amoral, callous, avaricious, power mad bullies and cowards.- why do we have to live with you?




Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."