Showing posts with label eradication. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eradication. Show all posts

New Zealand, Vietnam - Elimination Strategy works - what is stopping others from doing what works?

Eridcation or Suppression? Australian TV asked the question whether or not elimination of community transmission of the virus vs eradication of the virus is the better choice.

  
They carefully avoided a direct or conclusive answer, and spun the elimination protocol outcome as a problem, closed borders, and suggested suppression as the favoured choice by omission.
They did not qualify suppression in terms of lives lost, impact of disease, and instead implied permanently closed borders would be a problem - without mentioning that a 2 week quarantine is not a closed border.
It was only a short piece, for a news segment, so obviously detail was not their intent. I am using this piece as an introduction. My thesis is simple. Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus from a given population/territory where a single Government operates is wholly feasible. New Zealand has proven this. Every time any reporter or member of the Press faces members of the UK Government, all they really need to be doing is repeating "New Zealand, New Zealand." Really. Their obsequious questioning is complicit in the crime being committed.

Now, June 21st, two months on from that news segment, and New Zealand is clear of SARSCOV2 virus, community transmission has been eliminated and there are no new cases of COVID19 after an eleven week intensive elimination protocol.

Vietnam is also clear and there are other States, such as Taiwan which have also eliminated the uncontrolled spread via community transmission within their populations, and others Finland, Norway are getting very close to clear by following the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols. Video : Vietnam - Dr. John Campbell speaks to a fellow Brit in Danang, Vietnam.
Sweden's failures. Sweden has been excluded from a Nordic Free travel Zone until it has mastered the virus, having chosen to ignore the elimination protocol in favour of a herd immunity approach, and shielding the vulnerable. It has failed. They got it wrong. Sweden's per capita death rate was 10 times that of it's neighbours, running to close to 10% of all confirmed cases/ Video : Sweden - Dr. John Campbell speaks about Sweden reviewing the data and their strategy.
Senecide Video: Sweden - Dr. John Campbell speaks with Dr. John Tallinger, a GP in Sweden, dedicated to working with elder patients, saving lives for COVID19 patients over 60 with chronic disease, with oxygen supplement, due to Swedish Health Governance policy directions to administer palliative care medications, rather than admit to general Hospital.


Neighbours can be a problem, if their arrogance inhibits sociality. Proof

Thus we have living proof, scientific proof, epidemiological, social, political and economic proof that Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols can and do work. We have ample proof that herd immunity approaches are lethal. That said, this achievement requires a certain degree of discipline and commitment. It is not easy, by any stretch of the imagination. One has to 'stay alert'. Quarantine, and unacceptable failure. Then in June, New Zealand had two new cases, imported from Britain, by two sisters returning on June 7th, to visit a dying parent, who had become very, very close to death and who then died whilst the two sisters were in quarantine. Very sad for all concerned. The local officials allowed the sisters compassionate leave on June 13th to travel to their dying parent's family, to be with the surviving parent, which was before their quarantine time was up, but they did not test them. One of the sisters had already presented with flu-like symptoms and was not tested as it was believed the symptoms were due to a pre-existing condition. That was the first error. The second error was allowing them to travel unaccompanied by any officials, unguarded so to speak. There were a number of other errors made by the officials in handling the case. I assume some of those errors were compounded by the sisters British based perception of Corona Virus, as their behaviour would indicate. I will focus on that perception later in the article. As the symptomatic sisters symptoms became more severe, the sisters were tested on June 14th, and their tests came back, positive for both of them, on June 16th. They were placed in isolation.
The NZ contact trace system kicked in and located more than 300 people who could have been infected via these two sisters, within 24 hours, and placed all on quarantine, urging them to get tested.

"Health officials are tracing 320 people who are regarded as “close contacts” of the women, and they will be urged to get tested. Close contacts could include passengers on their flight to New Zealand and other quarantined travellers at their Auckland hotel, as well as hotel staff and flight crew. The women were now in isolation with a relative, officials said."
The whole affair brought to light how important discipline is in maintaining clarity and effectiveness of the protocols. That discipline depends on everyone fully understanding the evidence, the science and the public health risks and taking appropriate steps to maintain a virus free status, and to isolate as soon as any sign of infection emerges. Jacinda Arden spoke of these and said the errors were 'unacceptable' and ordered all compassionate leave to be suspended in future until they can be sure the best discipline is fully operational at all times.



The discipline of Government, it's officials and agencies and of the people is a critical element in any elimination strategy. From start to finish, and afterwards. People spread the virus. The virus is unlikely to travel on goods when proper screening is undertaken -and if a solid quarantine ans testing system is in place for all travellers, then the most likely un-quarantined infection route would be people smugglers, drug smugglers and so forth. Covert and unofficial lines of transmission which can only be countered by extreme vigilance, rapid and unrelenting action and confrontation. Systems exist for that purpose. Elimination Strategy is simple in principle, complex in practice, complicated by power gaming.

Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus - when there is a given population, a bordered territory and the state has the ability to pick up every symptomatic case, and has the ability to trace every contact, observe those contacts in quarantine and has top notch provision for treatment of anyone presenting with symptoms, away from the community, that state can eliminate the virus within that population. Bit by bit, day by day, until they close down all community transmission, and have everyone in treatment being cared for, and they have a situation where they have no new infections for two weeks after the last deaths, and the last recoveries from the disease, then that population can be sure that no more transmission of the live virus is occurring. The virus cannot live long outside the human body. It can only transmit from body to body. The State and community must still maintain vigilance.

This can be done, all of it, without total shut down. 12 weeks is the length of time it takes to move through this entire protocol in any population, the only limiting factor being the volume of resources deployed. Where community transmission is out of control, then massive resources are required because more ground has to be covered, rapidly.

Shut down is only needed when community transmission is out of control - which was the status in mid January in Wuhan, and in late February, March and into April in the UK. Community Transmission out of control. Unfortunately, community transmission is still out of control in the UK in spite of the effort and endurance of vast majority of British people staying home, staying safe. The UK has not managed to 'control the virus' and is perilously close to starting a second peak as I write. I say second peak, because for their to be a second wave, there must be a trough in between, and that is not the case.

This is entirely down to the failures of the UK Government to take the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus route from the outset. The responsibility lies with the Conservative and Unionist Party Government, with Parliament and the News media, which has behaved in a most feeble manner. No-one else. Current estimates of excess deaths due to the virus and other effects from bad policy choices is 65,000+. This is terrifying and infuriating in equal measure. I am ok, personally. I have had the disease, five weeks of awful illness. I have lung and kidney issues since then, slowly improving. I have stopped smoking, and I am taking exercise every day and doing some running. This is not my personal fear anymore. I have degrees of immunity. I am resilient.

However at the age of 60, I have many friends whose situation is not so secure. Friends and family members with chronic disease conditions, cancer and other illnesses that put them all at greater risk of severe or even lethal outcomes should they become infected. They do not feel this government is doing it's utmost to protect them. They do not feel safe. I also have friends who have bought into the conspiracy theories, and others who are Brexiteers who support Johnson no matter what else is happening. But they are a minority. Most people I know are aware, paying close attention to the science and are taking care of one another, enduring the situation. Good people predominate.
The problem in the UK is not the people. The problem has been the UK Governments atrocious handling of the situation. The deliberate delays in responding at the beginning, the lack of PPE and other equipment, the wholly ill-advised and inadequate policies they have chosen, their deliberately confusing public messaging, the prevalence of unethical theory (Herd Immunity) and opinion over scientific, epidemiological and public health practice evidence, the lack of adequate support for pre-existing stresses across the community as they were shunted into sudden shut-down, the willingness of the Government to lie and dissemble about their failures and decisions, their readiness to place resources in the wrong hands, and a media that is even still unwilling to confront a lethally dishonest Government head-on have all combined to guarantee the spread of the virus and have lead to 60,000+ excess deaths within four months. Why did the UK Government avoid the obvious elimination protocol? It's not rocket science! Making Elimination Strategy Work.

To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and the people must have a rigorous discipline and there must be genuine trust in the process among the population.

To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and Health Authorities must have superb contact tracing up and running, the State must make quarantine and isolation treatment an integral part of track and trace, and it must be made as easy and as comfortable as possible for the people affected to comply, and the State must resource the protocols fully, no questions asked.
That means the State and Health and Education systems must have superb, honest and transparent communication to the population, at all levels, at all times. The only must the Boris Johnson was familiar with was the Island of Mustique. The Role of The Press.

The press and news media must be willing to debunk and dismiss all contheories, concepts such as herd immunity and other woowoo health claims, in order to insulate the population and the politicians from any possibility of such nonsense afflicting public policy or public behaviour.   Spreading lies to allow a virus to spread is not free speech!

We are all in this together.
It has to be that the entire population, the State, the press are operating on an evidence base for the correct action to be taken, so that the discipline is emergent, collective, engaged rather than imposed and draconian. Honesty must prevail, Scientifically and Ideologically.


The likes of David Icke, Nigel Farage, Trump and Johnson lies and manipulations such as the 'China Virus' idiocy, and other such statements by leading politicians and so forth cannot be allowed to run free. They have to be debunked. Openly, transparently. Honest Borders.

The State must also accept that it will have to police the borders intensely, that the populations holidays must be taken within the populations territory, that all private cross border travel must endure a well monitored quarantine, including billionaires in private jets, for as long as the quarantine is needed.

Immigration must cease until there are virus clear countries at both starting and ending journey countries, and it must also be disciplined by a two week quarantine.

Air travel for tourism, right now, is a luxury that we do not need. Air Freight is another matter. Land freight and sea freight must be handled with care.

Cross border Cruise and Tourism are luxuries - we do not not need them. When local populations take holidays in own countries, the income stays at home, this is better for everyone, and potentially there will be less carbon exhaust particulates in the air. Stop overs in infected areas cannot happen, of course. The workers need to be furloughed, for the 12 week period. The Companies can be helped.

Aviation and Tourism will take a hit, but only for as long as it takes to Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus s in departure/destination areas. Their ability to lobby governments to take stupid action has to be curtailed. They deserve support from the State just as any others do. According to their needs to stay afloat. 12 weeks, three months. It is not too much to ask, given the potential death toll of allowing the virus to infection millions upon millions of people, among them 11.5 million vulnerable people. Allowing Herd Immunity is cruelty.

The alternative to Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus is slowly achieving herd immunity across a given population at the practical HI level of 93% and unfortunately that guarantees that all vulnerable people WILL be exposed and that will come with a fatality and human damage cost which is unethical to consider for economic reasons, precisely because it is avoidable. It is wholly unethical to permit heard immunity by exposure. There is so much that is still unknown about the long term effects of this virus that to drop the precautionary principle at this early stages is epidemiological stupidity, and reckless misGovernance.

Unless a State Establishment wants to exploit the virus to rereig Economies and State systems, in which case ethics are irrelevant. Trump and Johnson are two leaders who have ably demonstrated that ethics mean nothing to them personally or politically. Go figure current policy behaviour and outcomes.
Which is precisely what the UK and US Governments are doing, today, right now, right before your eyes. They are exploiting the situation, and causing great harm. This is insane, and it is profoundly unethical. "New Zealand, New Zealand!" It has to be said, in the clearest possible terms. This cannot be allowed to continue into the autumn. it really cannot be allowed. Something must be done, and soon.
Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

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The argument for Stopping the Spread of Infection, as opposed to Slowing it down.


#StopTheSpread #SpreadTheLove

The lock down, keep your distance, no large crowds, stay at home, isolate the elderly and the vulnerable for 12 weeks and wash your hands approach is best described as the top down approach.  Government Advice.

It is imposed or suggested from above.

It is an umbrella policy. 

It is a very broad brush.

It has no detail.

It is partly an order,  and partly an advice, issued by the UK Government.

The policy is to slow the spread of the infection.

As things stand there is no policy in place to stop the spread of the infection.

Two entirely different policy choices, with profoundly different outcomes.

The UK Government's claim is that this slowing of the spread is necessary in order to prevent a potential overwhelm of the NHS as it stands.

Their claim is that by isolating the elderly and those in care settings we can allow the infection to spread among the general population of 'fit' people and thus protect the vulnerable and the NHS.

Sounds good.

What does slow the spread of infection really mean?

It means to allow the spread of the infection, albeit more slowly.

How is that possible?

When we all  carry on as normal, what do we need to do to make the infection spread more slowly than if we deliberately exposed ourselves to the viral infection by continuing with our everyday interactions.

Masks, physical distance, hand hygiene, limits on indoors gatherings, work from home is what is on offer.

What is not available is the resource base for rapid suppression of localised surges and outbreaks - expert effective local contact tracing,  economic support for quarantine, economic and medical support for isolation treatment, local real time data and information so that locally people can see where outbreaks are happening and take action to reduce contact or exposure to infection and then stop the spread of the infection.

What is on offer guarantees that the infection WILL spread, just slowly.

That is what slow spread means. There is a problem - slow spread cannot be controlled, it will always lead to exponential growth at some stage.

The Government ignored calls by responsible health professionals an epidemiologists to properly resource the NHS and the 15,570 care homes across the UK with PPE.

The UK Government ignored calls to make other provisions in advance, calls that were made from early January when the genome of the new virus was sequenced, and the virus given it's name (SARSCOV2). The disease was named COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019).

Because of that failure to respond to rational warnings,  the NHS frontline staff have been placed in harms way,  they are forced to deal with a multitude of cases of infection without the appropriate protection kit, and other essential supplies amidst staff and bed shortages, and they are suffering the impact of the governments choice, and we can see clearly now that the claim that they are protecting the NHS was and is obviously false.

They knew it was false the day they announced the policy to slow the spread of the infection.

Slowing the spread means infections have already hit care homes, and the entire population within care homes, carers and the cared for alike, are now at serious risk because they do not have the PPE kit and other situational practices to prevent infection spread.

Therefore the claim to be protecting the elderly and the people in care homes was a non-starter, it is demonstrably not the case.

What does slowing the infection spread mean for the 5,000,000 people in the UK with known  chronic compromised immune system conditions?

It means they are guaranteed to be imprisoned, in isolation or in shielding, for as long as the spread is allowed to progress, however slowly.  It means masses of early, painful, horrific deaths within that cohort -  a conservative estimate would be 1% of that population would be 50,000 deaths.

Slowly, over a period of a many months, or more up to a tear - what does that mean?

How many deaths a month is acceptable?

Why not adopt a stop the spread policy?

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/01/the-coronavirus-crisis-eight-week-suppression-strategy-could-stop-covid-19-in-its-tracks-says-ex-who-director/

"We know we can get this under control,” says Dr Anthony Costello, a former Director at the World Health Organisation (WHO), where he headed up maternal, child and adolescent health. “The problem is that Europe has been too slow to act compared with Asia; and America is now facing a huge crisis.”

Costello, who is Professor of Global Health at University College London where he previously headed up the UCL Institute for Global Health, spoke to me via telephone from Yorkshire, where he is currently isolating from his family members, many of whom are experiencing symptoms of the novel Coronavirus.

Having worked at the WHO from 2015 to 2018 before returning to UCL, Costello pulls no punches about the failures that, he says, have allowed the virus to rampage across Western countries.

He is also concerned about tepid Government messaging. “It’s not enough to just have modellers, virologists and behavioural scientists.

You need people who can translate this into action. Social scientists. Public health experts experienced in community mobilisation.

Right now, we are locked into this strange idea that the Prime Minister or President makes a speech and suddenly the entire country changes its mind. That’s just a fantasy.

Throughout my career, I’ve seen that just giving people a few of the right messages won’t necessarily change behaviour. We need a more serious, decentralised approach and to share data with local communities.”


He refers to some of China’s mass communications measures.

“The Chinese managed to suppress the virus in provinces outside Wuhan without the same sort of total lockdown by operating quickly.

They had a TV station giving out information on the virus round-the-clock on a 24-hour basis.

We had policing of supermarkets and pharmacies.

But most importantly we had a comprehensive mass testing and contact tracing programme. And proper protection for frontline health workers. And that’s how this was brought under control within seven weeks.”


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2636331/ - a paper outlining how the SARS epidemic was stopped in it's tracks.

Which is to say take the proven steps to eradicate the virus from within the population in any given area, from a village to towns, to cities and entire territories.

Because we have no vaccine we have no time to waste.

There is no lee-way, no room for any margin of error. Every error will cost lives, will cause avoidable horrible deaths.

So here is the protocol to stop the spread of infection.

A) Officially declare a legal shut down, and pay all non-essential workers to stay at home, by providing a Universal Basic Income for the duration of 3 months itwho  would take to stop the spread, and eradicate the virus from the population.

To make this easier to bear, if UBI is not acceptable then consider a pause rents, mortgages, major bill payments and roll out temporary income support for the duration of the program to stop the spread of the infection.

That money will not be wasted, it will  be going back into the local economy.

Support all essential workers - food production, distribution and retail, public transport, utility, health, police, fire brigades, NHS, military and civil service by ensuring they have full PPE and training adequate to their roles, and provide them and their employers with exact and accurate information on the virus, the infection, the disease and the protocols demanded by the situation.

Clear communications that  treat the citizens as rational adults.

B) Roll out fully resourced contact tracing - Trace all the contacts of every case that presents, and meet each and everyone  of those contacts with a team who can gently and firmly assess and test every one of those contacts to see if they

1) have the virus - send for treatment in isolation wards to avoid treatment at home which leads to more spread

2) have the antibody - have survived the infection, are presumed immune

3) have not yet been infected - people who could become infected - they must be protected from contracting the infection and also quarantined for two weeks to see if symptoms emerge.

Use school buildings that are empty as co-ordination centers locally. Distribute testing and organise local contact tracing through these as well.

C) Treat symptomatic people from the contact list and all who present with symptoms in isolation hospitals, rather than leaving them at home, where they can spread the infection, and where the patients condition can escalate without support to deal with that.

(This was observed in Wuhan before the contact tracing and new build isolation hospitals kicked in - in the end they had 1800 teams of 5 people each meeting all the contacts, contact tracing is resource heavy in that it needs lots of people working at it, nonetheless it works really well, and then mobile phone tech was integrated into that to monitor symptoms and spread. Potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs which puts more cash back into the local economy and build community cohesion at the same time.)

D) Quarantine all asymptomatic contacts, and as soon as they show symptoms, move them to treatment hospitals to prevent or reduce escalation to severe or critical  - this also means less pressure on the available intensive care units and general hospital admissions.

E) Everyone who is quarantined is supported financially and monitored for signs of symptoms so that earliest treatment can be given, to reduce escalation of symptoms into severe or critical.

If the Government had taken this route, back in February, or even in Early March, a method which is proven already in 5 largely urbanised states, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea and is being deployed successfully in others as I write, we would be closer to stopping the spread and then eradicating the infection spread within the UK population.

We know that it would take 8-12 weeks to stop the spread across a large populous state.

Those states that have applied this protocol are experiencing imported cases, that is to say the infection is being carried in by travellers from outside those States are bringing the virus back into those virus free territories.

F) Quarantine all incoming travellers, via Air, Land or Sea, for two weeks, and monitor them strictly.

If the Government were to move immediately to stopping the spread with an eye to eradication, we could clear the infection within three months.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/01/the-coronavirus-crisis-eight-week-suppression-strategy-could-stop-covid-19-in-its-tracks-says-ex-who-director/

We have the resources, we have the people, we have the desire - but do the Government share this vision?

The aim is to find all infection routes and to chase them down to where everyone infected is known and observed, and no new infections are starting - when the virus runs out of new hosts, it vanishes in that population. Quarantine must be fully implemented upon all incoming  and returning domestic and international air, sea and land travel. Even from Northern Ireland.

We need both the shut down and the bottom out approach.

Instead the UK Government policy is encouraging the slow spread of infection, and pretty much guaranteeing importing extra new infections by way of air, sea and land travellers arriving from other countries where there are serious infection outbreaks, because, as of today, 17 April 2020 is no testing or quarantining of those arrivals.

This is insane.

Let me repeat - within the UK we could, given the fullest resourcing, eradicate the virus in 3 months.

Then a fully funded quarantine must be in place for all incoming or returning travellers to maintain that eradicated status, until a vaccine is available or we have implemented the stop and eradicate policy across the Earths states and communities...

Allowing the slow spread will play out over many,  many more months, possibly years...

In economic terms the difference is between losing three months of GDP or losing a years GDP plus the other costs as various systems reach collapse or stress beyond repair due to continued shut down, re-opening and further waves of infection outbreaks generating a cyclic pattern that persists because there is no vaccine.

It's not just about me, or you my dear reader, it is about all of us.

This situation is about all of humanity as one human family, one society of many cultures and languages, it is about unity across diversity.


Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it's Your Gift to Universe"

Thank you for reading this blog. All we need to do is be really honest, responsive to the evidence we find,and ready to reassess when new evidence emerges. The rest is easy.

Eradicating a virus. 'Protecting the Hoard, not the Herd': a political economic choice, not a health and medical choice.





By slowing down rather than stopping the spread of infection the UK government are guaranteeing that the bulk of the population will become infected and the mortality rate for vulnerable people will stay the same, it will just happen more slowly.

The 'shut-down' policy was sold as an attempt to ensure NHS and other health services do not collapse under a 'short term' burden.  They ordered the isolation of all elderly people and known cases of immune compromised chronic conditions, without any provision to protect them from the spread.

That theory was destroyed by the lack of PPE, shortages of trained staff, lack of other supplies, kit and logistical support which the Government was warned about, in detail, from Operation Cygnus in 2016 and throughout January 2020. All deliberate choices by this Government and it's predecessors.

The UK Government had time to prepare, they had the time to stop and check and quarantine the inflow of infected people from abroad,  via air travel and cruises, and land be they immigrants, returning holiday makers or business travellers.

Merely slowing down the spread of infection is exactly what the Chinese, Koreans , Singaporeans and Taiwanese did NOT contemplate - they went for eradication - find every case, quarantine all contacts, treat everyone who is symptomatic in isolation hospitals, maintain vigilance, deal with outbreaks rapidly until no new cases emerge after two months.

This is an imperfect method, in that it cannot find every single case in one swoop. It is a method that takes time and resources, and importantly must be very well understood by the population that is infected and engaged with as such. Communication must be clear, exact, honest and 100% evidence based. Support for everyone affected must be provided by the State, in terms of resources, living wage income protection, treatment facilities and social welfare. It includes maintaining vigilance, so that even after a two month period of no new infection, the readiness to respond to a new infection remains active and agile. When we know the virus has no new hosts, say after 6 months, then we know that that particular virus has been eradicated. This is entirely possible. The only barrier is economic or political will."

Then we know the virus has no new hosts, and is eradicated.

Maintain vigilance, and maintain capacity to respond rapidly to every new outbreak to isolate it and eradicate that infection spread in that locality.

Slowing down was merely always a staging step towards eradication. It should never be set as a move on it's own.

The UK Government has no intent or policy of eradication of the virus in the population - this is insane, especially on an island.

Their decision is not based on epidemiology or public health - it is a purely economic political decision. Slowing down the spread, and what it means. Data modelling and behavioural sciences!

Slowly is ten thousand preventable, horrific deaths in two weeks and rising.

Slowly is grinding on in spite of avoidable shortages of PPE for front line health workers, and the attrition rate that has on frontline staff.

Slowly is interminable when there is no contact tracing, and no testing happening in the UK.

This is eugenics by default, straight up.

It is not intentional eugenics. They are not that evil.

It is not that they want us dead, it is that in order to protect their status and their material power and wealth (their assets) they will abandon the most vulnerable. (everybody else).

As in The Vatican hiding away abusers to protect their status. This is a well known pattern of behaviour.

The 'wanting us dead'  narrative is hype, beloved of conspiracy theories and it tends to undermine effective understanding of the situation.

The reality is much worse, far more chaotic and random, and thus more tractable because the illusion of total control is an illusion - a theory if you will.

What does slowly mean, in a conservative estimate?

In the UK 10% of known immune compromised people  (about 5 million) still means potentially 500,000 horrific deaths. slowly over a year. 10, 000 a week, sustained.

Is that acceptable?

No.

Is this a viable long term solution?

No.

Stopping the spread dead where ever it emerges, rapidly, is the correct protocol, at every stage of the spread of the infection - chase down every infection, trace and quarantine all contacts, offer treatment away from home, in isolation hospitals ,etc. until there are no new cases, and the virus cannot find any new hosts and it dies out.

THAT is the only viable solution - it will demand that full logistical and resource commitment to do that.

Is it worth a years GDP to do this?

I say it is.

Easily, It's worth ten years GDP.

Everybody's life matters.

Eradicate the virus by robbing it of new human hosts.

The PM, and the entire Cabinet needs to be arrested for malfeasance in public office and held on remand for the duration. Fired.

We need a government that will pursue stopping the spread, eradicating the infection from these islands, by robbing it of new human hosts, informed by epidemiology, public health practice, social welfare and trauma informed approaches. And that must exclude Keir Starmer, for obvious reasons.

We do not need a government operating on the basis of data modelling and behavioural sciences.

We need a Government that will pay the people to stay at home, no questions asked, for the duration. A government that will give the people clear, accurate, scientifically grounded information that the citizens can engage with as equals, as adults who are working together.

There is no vaccine. It is not on any horizon.

The infection and disease cannot be allowed to slow spread - in the UK there are 5,000,000 people with known immune compromised health conditions, the cost to those people is intolerable - if it costs three years GDP it would still be cheap by comparison.

It doesn't have to cost that much.

Eradication, if fully resourced, will take approximatley three months - the slow spread will take much, much longer.

Eradication is better for the people and the economy by all measures.

Ensure that in future outbreaks of a novel virus similar to this, the protocols to stop the spread, and
eradicate the virus by depriving it of new hosts, are implemented at pace, from the start.

I do not oppose Vaccines, and I do not accept that they are anything but a very last resort in cases such as the SARS and SARSCOV2 viruses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases

Selection of infectious diseases for eradication is based on rigorous criteria, as both biological and technical features determine whether a pathogenic organism is (at least potentially) eradicable.

The targeted organism must not have a non-human reservoir (or, in the case of animal diseases, the infection reservoir must be an easily identifiable species, as in the case of rinderpest), and/or amplify in the environment. SARS and SARSCOV-2 fit into this criteria.

This short paper discuss's the success of the shutting down of the SARS 2002-3 epidemic.

https://biomedgrid.com/pdf/AJBSR.MS.ID.001017.pdf

To not do it is a political /economic decision, not an epidemiology clinical practice decision.

Let the Herd take it on the chin, protect the Hoard, or deploy the Hoard to protect the Herd?

That is the basic honest question here.



Kindest Regards,
Corneilius
"Do what you love, it's Your Gift to Universe"
Thank you for reading this blog.

All we need to do is be really honest, responsive to the evidence we find,and ready to reassess when new evidence emerges.

The rest is easy.