Showing posts with label BodgJohnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BodgJohnson. Show all posts

Rejecting Zero Community Transmission Strategy is causing Irrational Economic and Health Harms

"In non zero community transmission strategy States the COVID19 policy choice is a false position between the health of the people and health of the economy. They do not say this, yet that is what it means to not pursue ZCT. It is, of course, a false dichotomy. A good policy protects both. 23% of global population and their economies are currently being protected by ZCT. Bad policy harms both. Just look at the deaths and economic harms in the differing countries. Go on. Compare Vietnam or New Zealand's outcomes with USA or England's outcomes. Use yer google and compare the outcomes."




A global pandemic demands a global coherent response to minimise harms, no question.


Compare New Zealand's Zero Community Transmission strategy with UK Herd Immunity slow spread tactical approach that has become a war of attrition that the most vulnerable lose.

1. 1.8 billion people (23% of global population) and their economies being protected by Governments and populations deploying proven Zero Community Transmission strategies right now across East Asia and Oceania, Europe, South America and elsewhere. Stopping the spread of the virus is possible and it works. It could be a global strategy to avoid causing vast harms.  It should be the global strategy. Stopping the Spread is spreading the Love.

2. The English Government have rejected Zero Community Transmission strategy from the outset. They have rejected Science and Epidemiology best practice out of hand. They cited 'data modelling' and 'behavioural science' as the basis for their policy choice. The never cite epidemiology or virology as the basis of their policy choices.

3. The English Government deliberately allowed the virus to be imported and to be  spread in January, February and March and beyond in 2020. They refused to quarantine the borders. They had chosen a policy of allowing 'natural herd immunity' to take it's course. They denied this, even as on multiple occasions they and their chosen advisors urged Herd Immunity as the only resolution to the epidemic. Of course publicly they disavowed that policy, but the effects of policy choice has led to spread of the virus, time and time again. Slowing the spread is a herd immunity strategy. Stopping the spread would be an non-herd immunity policy.

4. The English Government scaled down NHS contact trace in February, March 2020 rather than scale it up. They deliberately allowed transmission of the virus to run out of control by claiming it was too late to stop the spread.

5. The English Government ignored WHO guidance and East Asian experience. 

6. The English Government bragged about this position. British  Exceptionalism.

7. Here is Johnson bragging about this position February 3rd 2020 

https://youtu.be/baWbWpOtJnc?t=536


Here are his words, read them, understand them.

"And in that context, we are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic

8. and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage..."

9. Here is the real and unnecessary economic damage the government's deliberate policy have caused

a. 130,000 and more HORRIFIC painful frightening deaths.
b. 300,000 and more Long Covid cases. 
c. Hundreds of thousands of of acute health care issues set aside as hospitals are repeatedly swamped by COVID19.
d. 75,000 pub jobs lost.
e. Live Entertainment Industry crushed, 170,000 jobs lost
f. Tourism crushed.
g. Hundreds of thousands of people in rent arrears, at risk of losing their homes.
h. 3 million self employed small business people excluded from support. 
i. Immense psychological stress.
j. Immense economic damage. 
k. GDP way down,

10. "beyond what is medically rational to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage"

All of this is absolutely irrational damage to the health of population, it is irrational damage to the people's economy and all of it was 100% avoidable. No question. and so let us look at the bragging - 

11. "then at that moment Humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange, some country ready to take off its Clark Kent spectacles and leap into the phone booth "

Johnson claims Humanity, the Global Population, needs a brave government like the UK Government! Blatantly not the case then, and certainty on that now.

12.  "and emerge with its cloak flowing as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other. And here in Greenwich in the first week of February 2020, I can tell you in all humility that the UK is ready for that role."

Humility is something alien to Boris Johnson and indeed alien to the English Government as an international State.
 
13. "We are ready for the great multi-dimensional game of chess in which we engage in more than one negotiation at once and we are limbering up to use nerves and muscles and instincts that this country has not had to use for half a century."

The Game of Chess - an institutional anti-human attribution that speaks of people as pawns, that speaks to Power rather than Humanity.

14. "Limbering up" : contact tracing FAIL, PPE procurement FAIL, Testing FAIL, Quarantine FAIL, Isolation Treatment FAIL, Care Homes FAIL


15. "Use Nerves" : blustering, hand shaking, pretending to care, clapping for heroes, eat out to spread it about, bullying teachers, offering to support school students with laptops and broadband and not delivering, bullying parents, making public claims they will 'beat' the virus. 

16. "And muscles" : gaslighting, misleading, lying, bullying and ignoring the evidence. co-ordinated misinformation and slander campaigns with News Media and on line political grooming operations. 

17. "And Instincts" : cronyism, blanking English suppliers of PPE and other equipment out to pass contracts (and cash) to friends who had no prior experience in such supply business, £250,000 on personal flat redecoration using crowdfunding to mask irregular donations, whilst prevaricating on school meals, refusing to offer immediate support for quarantine and isolation treatment.

Owen Jones TV : who is making a lot of money and profit out of the pandemic?

18. And there was no need for any of this. And Johnson claimed that Humanity needed his policy stance!

Well when it comes to the realities right now 23% of global population are protected by zero community transmission strategy and we in the UK could be getting that protection too. Humanity needs a global zero community transmission strategy.

http://Zerocovid.uk - UK web portal for zero community transmission support - check it out, get informed.

1.8 billion people and their economies being protected by zero community transmission strategy right now across East Asia and Oceania.

THAT IS EVIDENCE THAT CANNOT BE DENIED

19.  Thus Johnson lied in Parliament, when he said 'there is, therefore no credible route to a Zerocovid Britain, or indeed a Zerocovid World'.



20. Parliamentary privilege allows Johnson to pass that lie, and the co-ordination with Oligarchy owned News Mefia enables that lie, and so Johnson and the UK Government dismissed Zero Community Transmission strategy as 'impossible' and 'impractical' without ANY rational discussion of the strategy.

Then Johnson brazenly cites the harms caused by his policy when he says "we cannot persist indefinitely with restrictions that debilitate our economy, our physical and mental well being and the life chances of our children and that is why it is so crucial that this roadmap should be cautious but also irreversible." to push for worsening policy options of re-opening schools before they are safe, which is guaranteed to initiate a surge in community transmission. The first indications of that surge is the plateau of new cases of disease and deaths, and the rise in infections recorded by testing.

21. Johnson therefore dismissed the evidence out of hand without discussing any of it. Because he knows that if he opened that discussion, the position he and the Government have taken would collapse. That he uses his Parliamentary privilege to do so is bullying.

22. The harms I have cited were all avoidable. The position of the UK Gpvernment and various groups and lobbies and other agencies who are citing the harms caused by deliberate bad management to argue for worse management rather than better management is untenable.

23. Here's a short interview with an Australian doctor recounting their recent two cases, how they traced all contacts, quarantined each and every one of them and have suppressed the spread, with  some insight as to why they jump on every case - how one person can spread to 30, then to 150 and beyond really quite rapidly.



24. Australia's federal Government, ruled by The Liberal Party, wanted to reject zero community transmission strategy at the outset, back in 2020 and all the Australian State Governments said no. They all met up and agreed to follow zero community transmission strategies and to work together, using different strategies as they needed,  and they told the Federal Government which is ruled by The Liberal Party that they were implementing zero community spread strategy and they suggested very strongly that the Federal Government toe the line or else. The Murdoch press and broadcast tried to support the Liberal Party and keep the economy open, and they failed. The State Governments duty of care to the people prevailed.

25. Recent elections in Western Australia have decimated the ruling Liberal Parties candidates, as the population supported the ZCT promoting parties. It is likely to repeat across Australia in future elections. ZCT works. As it should.

26. In England there is a Government and News Mefia Taboo. Do not discuss the evidence that zero covid can work if and when it is correctly implemented. Dismiss it. Use all means, including psychological operations to undermine awareness of zero community transmission.

Authoritarianism. Lethal Authoritarianism.

27.  Evidence of malfeasance in public office is abundant. I wrote this blog article last May. Since then more evidence of malfeasance has emerged.


28. An 80 seat majority should not allow such anti Democratic inhumane harm causation by Government policy to persist.

That is an abuse of Power beyond reason, beyond bearing, beyond any claims of representation of constituents.

29. Johnson is inflicting upon the English people a similar degree of harm as Blair inflicted on the Afghani and Iraqi people 18 years ago, in 2002 and 2003 onwards, which is a continuation of the harms inflicted by Austerity in 2008 onwards, the support of violent overthrow of a legitimate Government in Libya in 2009, and an attempted overthrow of the legitimate government of Syria in 2011 and the continued Saudi war against Yemen.  All actions supported by the English Government. Abroad and at home,. they are causing harm to vulnerable citizens.

30. These are in effect Late Elizabethan Holocausts - where millions of lives have been shattered or adversely affected by wholly avoidable actions and policy choices made by UK Government policy. 

This cannot stand.

This cannot be allowed to continue.


Kindest regards

Corneilius

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COVID-19 : Opinion is lethal, Evidence saves lives.



The World Health Organisation and many other eminent expert bodies are saying that the COVID19 Pandemic is still a long way from being dealt with, 15 months on from the first proven cases of the disease.

Estimates vary depending on who is presenting a narrative and where they are presenting from.

People in New Zealand and Australia are more confident of an end to the pandemic than people in USA, Germany or UK. People across East Asia are confident they will remain with low fatalities, yet are not so confident the pandemic will cease in the West and other places where zero community transmission is not chosen as a strategy, anytime soon. This chart lays out in bleak lines the background to the variance of opinion. It is of course incomplete, and does not reflect the full scope of the situation. It is indicative. 

More cases is always the result of increased transmission, lower cases is always the result of lowered transmission. It is that simple.


source for this graphic : zerocovid.uk

Right now, as I am typing, zero community transmission strategies are protecting the lives and economies of 1.8 billion people across East Asia and Oceania. In these countries deaths from COVID-19 have been kept to a minimum. In these countries they have not been subjected to repeated National level shutdowns.  In these countries the people's economies are robust and thriving, given the global circumstances. These are the effects of zero community transmission strategies.

Granted international tourism is shut down. International passenger travel is shut down.  Some people's livelihoods in  tourism are adversely impacted, and they are mostly getting support from their governments to get through the pandemic.

Across East Asia and Oceania children are attending school, young adults are attending universities,  the bars and restaurants are open,  local tourism is open,  shopping malls are open. Weddings, funerals and wakes are happening. Life goes on, pretty much as 'normal'.

1.8 billion people.

Protected by an evidence led set of strategies, without the utility of a vaccine.

People still wear masks. People living in East Asia and New Zealand are aware that any outbreak that occurs must be suppressed, and they are well are informed and fully engaged thus when outbreaks do emerge, they and their Governments, local and national, take the appropriate action and suppress the transmission until all cases are traced, all contacts quarantined, the ill are given best possible treatment and all of this is carried out until the virus dies out due to finding no new hosts.

Zero Community Transmission not complicated, it is complex, it is expensive yet cheaper than high fatalities, high long covid rates and repeated economic shocks - it is epidemiology and public health practice at its best, and it is not an extreme set of actions and behaviours, it is mostly a matter of common and collective caring. 

It is not rocket science.

Right now, in the USA and UK and EU and Brazil, a different set of strategies are being deployed and these strategies and policies have caused millions of avoidable horrific deaths, millions of avoidable long term chronic disease cases (1 in 10 of all disease level infections), vast economic harms all of which have disproportionally impacted and afflicted the low income, the poor, the destitute, the chronically unwell and the vulnerable and disabled cohorts of their populations.

Evidence ignored, opinion and belief promoted, every single wheel re-invented turned out to be square, appalling death tolls, long term sequalae for hundreds of thousands of people, vast economic harms.

These slow spread herd immunity strategies are causing immense psychological and emotional harm to hundreds of millions of people through badly managed lockdowns, followed by openings, surges of transmission  and yet more lockdowns, with no end in sight and barely 20% of the UK population  (where I live) exposed to the virus, as these governments push their populations towards a mythical herd immunity in order to 'protect the economy'. It's utter nonsense to claim they are protecting their economies with these strategies.

These strategies have cause wholly avoidable economic damage - from small businesses to self employed, from the live entertainment industry to international tourism we see millions of job losses, businesses going to the wall, entire industries failing.

Here, in the UK where I live, rocket science is nowhere to be seen, and neither is common sense epidemiology. 

There is a pattern where those in power and others online cite the harms caused by bad management to argue for worse management rather than better management as in epidemiologically sound, proven and reliable zero community transmission strategies.

Behavioural Science, Data Modelling and Economics.

Government Scientists and Advisor cite behavioural science and data modelling as the source of their policy strategies. They do not cite epidemiology, they do not cite virology and they do not cite best practice public health.  The UK Government have claimed all along that they are protecting the British Economy, that "having a strong economy is the best way to ensure a strong National Health Service".

They are failing even in that simplistic task.

Here where I live we have seen multiple waves, shutdowns followed by opening up while community is active, followed by shutdowns as hospitals are over whelmed, and the death toll rises. Cycles of death and harm, all totally avoidable. Yes, the NHS has managed to deal with being pushed to it's limits again, but at the cost of the general service that it provides. Meanwhile American insurance firms buy up local health providers paving the road of insurance schemers 'good intentions'.

Each and every death by covid19 is a horrific, tortured death. 140,000 and rising horrible, painful and very stressed lonely deaths. 

Long Covid is estimated to affect 1 in ten of disease level cases. 

Asymptomatic cases account for 20% of infections, and these people spread the infection without knowing they are doing so. 

There is, within the UK, no effective localised contact trace system.

There is, within the UK,  no effective, localised quarantine support system.

There is, within the UK,  no effective, localised isolation treatment system.

Some people are being paid to not go to work, others must work and be exposed to risks because they are 'key workers' - shop staff, services staff, police, fire brigade, ambulance, sanitation staff, meat processing staff, Amazon staff, factory workers and builders, and many others.

And there are others who are forced to work because the economic support systems are inadequate for low wage earners - people who are low earners who become symptomatic choose to work because the support for quarantine is inadequate, slow and cumbersome. Food banks are feeding hundreds of thousands of families. The charities and their workers are forced to take risks.

This week, 8th March, 2021, we see the UK Government coercing students, parents and teachers to return to fully open schools whilst community transmission is at levels above 23rd March 2020 when the first shutdown was imposed. 

A year later we see no shift to an evidence based epidemiologically sound strategy. A year  later we see the continuation of policy options that are causing avoidable fatalities and long term harms to the people of the UK and to our economies.

The evidence of the lived experience in the UK is that the policies of the UK Government are causing vast harms, and when compared to countries following zero community transmission strategies, the variation in policy and outcome is clear.

In simple terms the difference is between opinion and evidence.

Opinion is lethal, evidence saves lives. 

Opinion, belief and ideology is lethal, honesty and evidence saves lives.

Gavin Williamsons opinion is that schools are safe for full attendance re-opening. Williamson cites a .002% case rate among students during the September re-opening period. Sounds like a small figure. .002% of 8.9 million students is 17,800+ cases. That is not a small number. Factor in the inadequacies of a centralised contact tracing system that has failed on almost every metric then we have a situation where were do not know how many infections are linked to those cases, what their index cases were, where the virus was transmitted... Gavin Williamson is playing tricks with numbers to push a deliberately egregious policy. 

A recent study on school safety makes this clear. 

"On Feb 22, 2021, the UK Government announced that schools in England would fully reopen on March 8, 2021. 

While returning to school as soon as possible is imperative for the education, social development, and mental and physical welfare of children, not enough has been done to make schools safer for students and staff. 

Without additional mitigations, increases in transmission are likely, this time with more infectious and possibly more virulent variants, resulting in further lockdowns, school closures, and absenteeism. Even when schools were supposed to be fully open, at points of high community transmission, 22% of secondary school children were not attending due to self-isolation. 

In some areas, attendance was as low as 61%.
Arguments that schools do not contribute to community transmission and that the overall risk to children from COVID-19 is very small have meant that mitigations in schools have received low priority. Yet the evidence cited for these arguments has serious limitations.  
Primary and secondary school closures have been associated with substantial reductions over time in the effective reproduction number (Rt) across many countries (including England) and time periods.  
In contrast, data from the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) 2020 COVID-19 Infection Survey show that the prevalence of infection among children aged 2–10 years (2%) and 11–16 years (3%) rose above the prevalence for all other age groups before the 2020 Christmas break (appendix p 4). 
Both modelling and real-world data in preprint showing rising cases in regions where the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant was prevalent during the lockdown in November, 2020 (when schools were open),  suggest that opening all schools now without robust mitigatory measures in place will probably lead to Rt rising above 1 in almost all scenarios. Modelling data by the University of Warwick and Imperial College London suggest that at least 30 000 more deaths from COVID-19 are estimated under the proposed reopening scenarios. 
Throughout February, 2021, despite fewer students being in school at this time, teaching staff were at higher risk of infection. Recent school outbreaks in northern Italy, where the B.1.1.7 variant is prevalent, are also concerning."

The study goes on to outline a series of mitigation steps to suppress transmission within the school community.

None of which is currently provided as logistical support or funded by central government at this time. 

A former OSTED chief urged teachers to put their lives on the line, for the future of the children they are teaching.

I saw the interview and to my mind he was impatient and dismissive rather than attentive to the needs of the teachers and the students. He was not calmly presenting evidence. 



Mary Bousted, of the NEU, corrected his assertion that schools were not functioning, which was a deliberate misrepresentation of the facts - she pointed out that teachers are in already in schools teaching key workers children and vulnerable children, and are helping children in a variety of ways to make up for the fall off in social services provision, as well as running remote online tuition.

Ideology, belief and opinion are lethal, honesty and evidence saves lives.

More from the study...

"
Although COVID-19 is unlikely to cause severe disease in children, estimates of the prevalence of long COVID symptoms based on the ONS Infection Survey suggest that 13% of children aged 2–10 year and 15% of those aged 12–16 years have at least one persistent symptom 5 weeks after testing positive.

Given uncertainty around the long-term health effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, it would be unwise to let the virus circulate in children, with consequent risk to their families. Reopening fully in the setting of high community transmission without appropriate safeguards risks depriving many children of education and social interaction again, worsening existing inequalities.

By contributing to high community transmission, it also provides fertile ground for virus evolution and new variants."

What kind of person demands that children take these risks? The same kind who launched a war against a country based on a careful set of obvious lies, claiming that they are bringing Democracy to an oppressed people? That went well.... not!

Ideology, belief and opinion are lethal, honesty and evidence saves lives


This country really needs a Union of Teachers, Parents and Students who are studying the evidence, who are learning about the evidence base for zero community transmission strategies, because it directly affects their lives now and into the future to confront this situation and to support the NHS by confronting MPs, local councils, local media, national media and any other arena's of influence with the evidence.
We cannot leave that study to the News Media or The Government. They are deliberate in their failure to present accurate and timely evidence since last December 2019.

We need the 8.9 million school children, the 2.38 million university students to be studying the evidence that exists on zero community transmission strategies. We need their parents to be on board, as learners in this.

We cannot trust the UK Government to be honest, so we must be the voices of honesty within the UK.

We need this cohort to engage with NHS staff and with other representing organisations to co-ordinate a push back at every level of society, aware that the Government and Media will not support this push back and will actively resist the most honest, evidence based analysis.

If I have repeated myself, and I have, it is only because the frustration of seeing what is possible being deliberately ignored by so many for such little purpose with so much harm attendant that I persist.

Not yet blue in the face, not yet breathless, I will continue to posit zero community transmission strategy until it is in place. It is the only strategy that makes humane sense.


Kindest regards

Corneilius


Letter : Zero Community Transmission is a practical, pragmatic strategy that is protecting 1.8 billion people and their economies.



Dear Editor

There are Governments, lobbyists and others who are citing harms caused by bad management of the epidemic locally, and of the pandemic globally, to argue for opening up whilst community transmission is still very much active, which amounts to worse management, rather than arguing for best management that achieves zero community transmission.

Zero Community Transmission was dismissed as and 'not credible' by the English PM, and 'impractical' in the UK Parliament this week

This is untrue - Zero Community Transmission is protecting the health and welfare and the economies of 1.8 billion people across East Asia and Oceania. They are pragmatic States.

Zero Community Transmission is a series of practical, common sense measures that are not by any measure extreme, and which avoid repetitive cycles of open and shutdown, as well as reducing the possibility of variants emerging from within virus laden communities.

I, and many others, would appreciate it if you could publish this letter to correct this misinformation coming from the UK Government, and others.

Yours sincerely

Corneilius Crowley

Please withhold my address and phone number from publication.