Showing posts with label epidemic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label epidemic. Show all posts

How do we break free of this abusive situation? - asking for a population

I have a question. 

Here is the set-up.

There are many valid questions concerning the long term efficacy of the various vaccines being rolled out, questions which can only be answered accurately as we see what happens, as we gather the data from the post vaccinated cohorts, which are matters of genuine and acceptable scientific uncertainty - this indicates to me, at least, that a zero community transmission strategy is still the only viable strategy available with which to save lives, protect our health care systems, our people and our people's economy in 2021/2/3.

The technical issue of how much time a good roll-out would take (setting aside for now concerns about mismanaged roll outs) implies continued risk of virus spread and community transmission continuing through out the time frame, with the additional risk of more mutations that might confer an advantage to the virus. 

It is not too late to prevent further avoidable fatality and long term illness for many millions of people by stopping the spread of the virus.  We are still at the early stages. no more than 10% of people in USUK have been infected, according to various estimates - there are variations where surges have been concentrated in large urban settings.

Such a strategy - Zero Community Transmission  - can only work when the population is fully supported by the state and by industry. Every gap in support undermines our collective safety.

We are all in this together and that demands that all of us are working together for the same goal.

Lack of adequate support drives industries to compete for support for themselves, rather than for the whole of society.

People trying to merely survive due to inadequate support, oligarchs trying to make profit and a government trying to manage a slow spread whilst grabbing more powers ain't gonna work.
 
The Wealthy

Billionaires will take on more wealth no matter what - that is the nature of owning immense wealth that cannot be spent. It is invested, and those investments generate more and more and more wealth, irrespective of the daily activity of the billionaire owners. They can sit back and do nothing and still get up the next day much wealthier than the previous day.

Billionaires can never return to average financial status.

Billionaires can play philanthropy - and many do and quite a few are very focussed on providing support in a genuine and humane way. There's a lot more that can and must be done. But it is not to be left to individuals to take action.

There is resistance to a change in the existing systems of wealth creation, which is based on externalised costs, which creates their vast wealth. If all externalised costs were paid, such wealth would soon vanish and a new balance would emerge. 

The poor and low income folk.

Externalised costs are the costs incurred in any activity that are not paid by those who are directing the activity - they are paid by others, by the environment and by the people.

Right now the US and UK Governments are externalising the cost of mismanagement of an epidemic to us the people.

Who is paying the price of mismanagement of the epidemic in the UK? 

Billionaires and the wealthy can afford to isolate themselves from any epidemic with much more ease than the poor, the low income, the middle income working wage population. Some of the wealthy are arrogant enough to travel across borders, and become super spreaders, precisely because they can afford to isolate themselves more readily, in relative comfort.

I have access to small garden, in a shared house, which I rent. That places me in a much better position than people renting an apartment in a block of flats or a high rise. That affords me a bit of leg room and a safety that others cannot access.

I am in a better situation that someone who owns their apartment, in a block, even as I am substantially poorer. I bless my good fortune, yet I am uneasy about that lack for so many others, living in London..

That seems unfair.

Who am I to deserve such good fortune?

The poor, the disabled, the vulnerable and other low income folk.

And then there's all those who are homeless, those who are struggling with mental health and chronic ill health, there are entire families living in small apartments, some in high rises that are known fire traps - for those people this situation is a double danger induced by UK Government policy decisions.

Then the 'key workers' the lovely folk in the super market I frequent, the drivers and stackers, the door staff - the risks they are exposed to, their dedication to ensuring we are fed and well supplied.

It is a burden not shared by Westminster elites.

That is unfair, it is an injustice.

It is unfair because the policy choices of USUK Governments are the root cause of the repeated lockdowns, one after the other. There is no other causation for that cycle.

The correct strategy is one lockdown, breaking community transmission fully, treating every case in isolation, quarantining borders, etc for at most 12 weeks (and if done well, it does work) and then maintaining surveillance systems that can jump on any new clusters, isolate them and suppress the transmission of the virus. I would go as far as to say to pay people to do that is the Governments responsibility, it's core duty of care. Once the community transmission is totally suppressed, then the community can re-open, safely. 

Stopping the spread is spreading the love.

Repeated open/shut policies as a result of deliberate government policy choice and action creates more time for more viral mutations, which can increase the risks for everyone. It adds stress to people's lives in myriad of ways untold, unspoken, endured.

Healthy people are the major spreaders of the virus, not the chronically ill. Tourism and Business class travel  mixed with mismanagement has transformed an epidemic into a pandemic. UK has imported and exported variants since the beginning of the epidemic. Refused to control the borders. How ironic after Brexit. 

Is there a Vietnamese or New Zealand Variant storming across Europe or America?

Allowing the virus to reach that part of our population with immuno-suppressive conditions - 11,000,000 people in the UK, 83,000,000 in USA - creates another lengthy well for more mutation possibilities, in that the virus lives for much longer in such cases, and thus has more time for more mutations and the emergence of new tricks. 

The adverse outcomes of the deliberate policy of USUK Governments is what forces us indoors - it's not the virus that is doing this.

It is not people's confusion, nor is it peoples 'bad' behaviour either that drives this vicious cycle. These are for sure real problems, yet the solution is not more confused Government 'guidance' that appears to be more about the Governments saving face than our welfare as a people. That is totally unfair.

The root of the problem is the USUK Governments deliberate active policy.

To sum up the current situation: where we are is that both US and UK Governments have deliberately pursued a policy of slow spread, of letting it saunter through the population (rather than "rip through the population" as he said) until it is out of control, and galloping - repeatedly, surge upon reduction upon surge - even as New Zealand and Vietnam and others controlled the spread and broke the transmission of the virus within their communities, and thus proved the efficacy of zero community transmission strategies in different countries, with differing demographics. It works. It can work in any State.

This disaster has been enabled through deliberate mismanagement.  



This is a deliberately induced cycle, it is not merely incompetence.

Deliberate is when the Government ministers and leaders are shown the evidence, when they are advised and warned by the best scientists across the globe, when they see other countries getting it right from the get go, and they still refuse to change course, even as more and more deaths occur, even as we find more long term chronic disease amongst survivors, even as health systems are pushed to their very limits - that is deliberate.

The mussed up hair, the blather, the messy suit and the portrayal of incompetence as a mask, a comfort, a soother rather than an accurate critical analysis. The taste of truth is bitter in his mouth. 

To add to the charge sheet, we see the UK Government and Media repeatedly scapegoating different demographics of deliberately confused citizens exposed to all manner of conTheory which the Governments have allowed to permeate - indeed both Governments are in place precisely because of their political use of conTheory as a weapon within an electoral process - then we have a situation that is close to murderous as one can get, outside an ongoing war.

How, then, do we get out of this situation?

Asking for a population.

 

Kindest regards 

Corneilius 

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

New Zealand, Vietnam - Elimination Strategy works - what is stopping others from doing what works?

Eridcation or Suppression? Australian TV asked the question whether or not elimination of community transmission of the virus vs eradication of the virus is the better choice.

  
They carefully avoided a direct or conclusive answer, and spun the elimination protocol outcome as a problem, closed borders, and suggested suppression as the favoured choice by omission.
They did not qualify suppression in terms of lives lost, impact of disease, and instead implied permanently closed borders would be a problem - without mentioning that a 2 week quarantine is not a closed border.
It was only a short piece, for a news segment, so obviously detail was not their intent. I am using this piece as an introduction. My thesis is simple. Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus from a given population/territory where a single Government operates is wholly feasible. New Zealand has proven this. Every time any reporter or member of the Press faces members of the UK Government, all they really need to be doing is repeating "New Zealand, New Zealand." Really. Their obsequious questioning is complicit in the crime being committed.

Now, June 21st, two months on from that news segment, and New Zealand is clear of SARSCOV2 virus, community transmission has been eliminated and there are no new cases of COVID19 after an eleven week intensive elimination protocol.

Vietnam is also clear and there are other States, such as Taiwan which have also eliminated the uncontrolled spread via community transmission within their populations, and others Finland, Norway are getting very close to clear by following the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols. Video : Vietnam - Dr. John Campbell speaks to a fellow Brit in Danang, Vietnam.
Sweden's failures. Sweden has been excluded from a Nordic Free travel Zone until it has mastered the virus, having chosen to ignore the elimination protocol in favour of a herd immunity approach, and shielding the vulnerable. It has failed. They got it wrong. Sweden's per capita death rate was 10 times that of it's neighbours, running to close to 10% of all confirmed cases/ Video : Sweden - Dr. John Campbell speaks about Sweden reviewing the data and their strategy.
Senecide Video: Sweden - Dr. John Campbell speaks with Dr. John Tallinger, a GP in Sweden, dedicated to working with elder patients, saving lives for COVID19 patients over 60 with chronic disease, with oxygen supplement, due to Swedish Health Governance policy directions to administer palliative care medications, rather than admit to general Hospital.


Neighbours can be a problem, if their arrogance inhibits sociality. Proof

Thus we have living proof, scientific proof, epidemiological, social, political and economic proof that Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols can and do work. We have ample proof that herd immunity approaches are lethal. That said, this achievement requires a certain degree of discipline and commitment. It is not easy, by any stretch of the imagination. One has to 'stay alert'. Quarantine, and unacceptable failure. Then in June, New Zealand had two new cases, imported from Britain, by two sisters returning on June 7th, to visit a dying parent, who had become very, very close to death and who then died whilst the two sisters were in quarantine. Very sad for all concerned. The local officials allowed the sisters compassionate leave on June 13th to travel to their dying parent's family, to be with the surviving parent, which was before their quarantine time was up, but they did not test them. One of the sisters had already presented with flu-like symptoms and was not tested as it was believed the symptoms were due to a pre-existing condition. That was the first error. The second error was allowing them to travel unaccompanied by any officials, unguarded so to speak. There were a number of other errors made by the officials in handling the case. I assume some of those errors were compounded by the sisters British based perception of Corona Virus, as their behaviour would indicate. I will focus on that perception later in the article. As the symptomatic sisters symptoms became more severe, the sisters were tested on June 14th, and their tests came back, positive for both of them, on June 16th. They were placed in isolation.
The NZ contact trace system kicked in and located more than 300 people who could have been infected via these two sisters, within 24 hours, and placed all on quarantine, urging them to get tested.

"Health officials are tracing 320 people who are regarded as “close contacts” of the women, and they will be urged to get tested. Close contacts could include passengers on their flight to New Zealand and other quarantined travellers at their Auckland hotel, as well as hotel staff and flight crew. The women were now in isolation with a relative, officials said."
The whole affair brought to light how important discipline is in maintaining clarity and effectiveness of the protocols. That discipline depends on everyone fully understanding the evidence, the science and the public health risks and taking appropriate steps to maintain a virus free status, and to isolate as soon as any sign of infection emerges. Jacinda Arden spoke of these and said the errors were 'unacceptable' and ordered all compassionate leave to be suspended in future until they can be sure the best discipline is fully operational at all times.



The discipline of Government, it's officials and agencies and of the people is a critical element in any elimination strategy. From start to finish, and afterwards. People spread the virus. The virus is unlikely to travel on goods when proper screening is undertaken -and if a solid quarantine ans testing system is in place for all travellers, then the most likely un-quarantined infection route would be people smugglers, drug smugglers and so forth. Covert and unofficial lines of transmission which can only be countered by extreme vigilance, rapid and unrelenting action and confrontation. Systems exist for that purpose. Elimination Strategy is simple in principle, complex in practice, complicated by power gaming.

Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus - when there is a given population, a bordered territory and the state has the ability to pick up every symptomatic case, and has the ability to trace every contact, observe those contacts in quarantine and has top notch provision for treatment of anyone presenting with symptoms, away from the community, that state can eliminate the virus within that population. Bit by bit, day by day, until they close down all community transmission, and have everyone in treatment being cared for, and they have a situation where they have no new infections for two weeks after the last deaths, and the last recoveries from the disease, then that population can be sure that no more transmission of the live virus is occurring. The virus cannot live long outside the human body. It can only transmit from body to body. The State and community must still maintain vigilance.

This can be done, all of it, without total shut down. 12 weeks is the length of time it takes to move through this entire protocol in any population, the only limiting factor being the volume of resources deployed. Where community transmission is out of control, then massive resources are required because more ground has to be covered, rapidly.

Shut down is only needed when community transmission is out of control - which was the status in mid January in Wuhan, and in late February, March and into April in the UK. Community Transmission out of control. Unfortunately, community transmission is still out of control in the UK in spite of the effort and endurance of vast majority of British people staying home, staying safe. The UK has not managed to 'control the virus' and is perilously close to starting a second peak as I write. I say second peak, because for their to be a second wave, there must be a trough in between, and that is not the case.

This is entirely down to the failures of the UK Government to take the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus route from the outset. The responsibility lies with the Conservative and Unionist Party Government, with Parliament and the News media, which has behaved in a most feeble manner. No-one else. Current estimates of excess deaths due to the virus and other effects from bad policy choices is 65,000+. This is terrifying and infuriating in equal measure. I am ok, personally. I have had the disease, five weeks of awful illness. I have lung and kidney issues since then, slowly improving. I have stopped smoking, and I am taking exercise every day and doing some running. This is not my personal fear anymore. I have degrees of immunity. I am resilient.

However at the age of 60, I have many friends whose situation is not so secure. Friends and family members with chronic disease conditions, cancer and other illnesses that put them all at greater risk of severe or even lethal outcomes should they become infected. They do not feel this government is doing it's utmost to protect them. They do not feel safe. I also have friends who have bought into the conspiracy theories, and others who are Brexiteers who support Johnson no matter what else is happening. But they are a minority. Most people I know are aware, paying close attention to the science and are taking care of one another, enduring the situation. Good people predominate.
The problem in the UK is not the people. The problem has been the UK Governments atrocious handling of the situation. The deliberate delays in responding at the beginning, the lack of PPE and other equipment, the wholly ill-advised and inadequate policies they have chosen, their deliberately confusing public messaging, the prevalence of unethical theory (Herd Immunity) and opinion over scientific, epidemiological and public health practice evidence, the lack of adequate support for pre-existing stresses across the community as they were shunted into sudden shut-down, the willingness of the Government to lie and dissemble about their failures and decisions, their readiness to place resources in the wrong hands, and a media that is even still unwilling to confront a lethally dishonest Government head-on have all combined to guarantee the spread of the virus and have lead to 60,000+ excess deaths within four months. Why did the UK Government avoid the obvious elimination protocol? It's not rocket science! Making Elimination Strategy Work.

To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and the people must have a rigorous discipline and there must be genuine trust in the process among the population.

To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and Health Authorities must have superb contact tracing up and running, the State must make quarantine and isolation treatment an integral part of track and trace, and it must be made as easy and as comfortable as possible for the people affected to comply, and the State must resource the protocols fully, no questions asked.
That means the State and Health and Education systems must have superb, honest and transparent communication to the population, at all levels, at all times. The only must the Boris Johnson was familiar with was the Island of Mustique. The Role of The Press.

The press and news media must be willing to debunk and dismiss all contheories, concepts such as herd immunity and other woowoo health claims, in order to insulate the population and the politicians from any possibility of such nonsense afflicting public policy or public behaviour.   Spreading lies to allow a virus to spread is not free speech!

We are all in this together.
It has to be that the entire population, the State, the press are operating on an evidence base for the correct action to be taken, so that the discipline is emergent, collective, engaged rather than imposed and draconian. Honesty must prevail, Scientifically and Ideologically.


The likes of David Icke, Nigel Farage, Trump and Johnson lies and manipulations such as the 'China Virus' idiocy, and other such statements by leading politicians and so forth cannot be allowed to run free. They have to be debunked. Openly, transparently. Honest Borders.

The State must also accept that it will have to police the borders intensely, that the populations holidays must be taken within the populations territory, that all private cross border travel must endure a well monitored quarantine, including billionaires in private jets, for as long as the quarantine is needed.

Immigration must cease until there are virus clear countries at both starting and ending journey countries, and it must also be disciplined by a two week quarantine.

Air travel for tourism, right now, is a luxury that we do not need. Air Freight is another matter. Land freight and sea freight must be handled with care.

Cross border Cruise and Tourism are luxuries - we do not not need them. When local populations take holidays in own countries, the income stays at home, this is better for everyone, and potentially there will be less carbon exhaust particulates in the air. Stop overs in infected areas cannot happen, of course. The workers need to be furloughed, for the 12 week period. The Companies can be helped.

Aviation and Tourism will take a hit, but only for as long as it takes to Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus s in departure/destination areas. Their ability to lobby governments to take stupid action has to be curtailed. They deserve support from the State just as any others do. According to their needs to stay afloat. 12 weeks, three months. It is not too much to ask, given the potential death toll of allowing the virus to infection millions upon millions of people, among them 11.5 million vulnerable people. Allowing Herd Immunity is cruelty.

The alternative to Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus is slowly achieving herd immunity across a given population at the practical HI level of 93% and unfortunately that guarantees that all vulnerable people WILL be exposed and that will come with a fatality and human damage cost which is unethical to consider for economic reasons, precisely because it is avoidable. It is wholly unethical to permit heard immunity by exposure. There is so much that is still unknown about the long term effects of this virus that to drop the precautionary principle at this early stages is epidemiological stupidity, and reckless misGovernance.

Unless a State Establishment wants to exploit the virus to rereig Economies and State systems, in which case ethics are irrelevant. Trump and Johnson are two leaders who have ably demonstrated that ethics mean nothing to them personally or politically. Go figure current policy behaviour and outcomes.
Which is precisely what the UK and US Governments are doing, today, right now, right before your eyes. They are exploiting the situation, and causing great harm. This is insane, and it is profoundly unethical. "New Zealand, New Zealand!" It has to be said, in the clearest possible terms. This cannot be allowed to continue into the autumn. it really cannot be allowed. Something must be done, and soon.
Kindest regards

Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

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