Eridcation or Suppression?
Australian TV asked the question whether or not elimination of community transmission of the virus vs eradication of the virus is the better choice.
They carefully avoided a direct or conclusive answer, and spun the elimination protocol outcome as a problem, closed borders, and suggested suppression as the favoured choice by omission.
They did not qualify suppression in terms of lives lost, impact of disease, and instead implied permanently closed borders would be a problem - without mentioning that a 2 week quarantine is not a closed border.
It was only a short piece, for a news segment, so obviously detail was not their intent. I am using this piece as an introduction. My thesis is simple. Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus from a given population/territory where a single Government operates is wholly feasible. New Zealand has proven this.
Every time any reporter or member of the Press faces members of the UK Government, all they really need to be doing is repeating "New Zealand, New Zealand." Really.
Their obsequious questioning is complicit in the crime being committed.
Now, June 21st, two months on from that news segment, and New Zealand is clear of SARSCOV2 virus, community transmission has been eliminated and there are no new cases of COVID19 after an eleven week intensive elimination protocol.
Vietnam is also clear and there are other States, such as Taiwan which have also eliminated the uncontrolled spread via community transmission within their populations, and others Finland, Norway are getting very close to clear by following the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols. Video : Vietnam - Dr. John Campbell speaks to a fellow Brit in Danang, Vietnam.
Sweden's failures.
Sweden has been excluded from a Nordic Free travel Zone until it has mastered the virus, having chosen to ignore the elimination protocol in favour of a herd immunity approach, and shielding the vulnerable. It has failed. They got it wrong. Sweden's per capita death rate was 10 times that of it's neighbours, running to close to 10% of all confirmed cases/
Video : Sweden - Dr. John Campbell speaks about Sweden reviewing the data and their strategy.
Senecide
Video: Sweden - Dr. John Campbell speaks with Dr. John Tallinger, a GP in Sweden, dedicated to working with elder patients, saving lives for COVID19 patients over 60 with chronic disease, with oxygen supplement, due to Swedish Health Governance policy directions to administer palliative care medications, rather than admit to general Hospital.
Neighbours can be a problem, if their arrogance inhibits sociality.
Proof
Vietnam is also clear and there are other States, such as Taiwan which have also eliminated the uncontrolled spread via community transmission within their populations, and others Finland, Norway are getting very close to clear by following the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols. Video : Vietnam - Dr. John Campbell speaks to a fellow Brit in Danang, Vietnam.
Thus we have living proof, scientific proof, epidemiological, social, political and economic proof that Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus protocols can and do work. We have ample proof that herd immunity approaches are lethal. That said, this achievement requires a certain degree of discipline and commitment. It is not easy, by any stretch of the imagination. One has to 'stay alert'.
Quarantine, and unacceptable failure.
Then in June, New Zealand had two new cases, imported from Britain, by two sisters returning on June 7th, to visit a dying parent, who had become very, very close to death and who then died whilst the two sisters were in quarantine. Very sad for all concerned.
The local officials allowed the sisters compassionate leave on June 13th to travel to their dying parent's family, to be with the surviving parent, which was before their quarantine time was up, but they did not test them. One of the sisters had already presented with flu-like symptoms and was not tested as it was believed the symptoms were due to a pre-existing condition. That was the first error. The second error was allowing them to travel unaccompanied by any officials, unguarded so to speak.
There were a number of other errors made by the officials in handling the case. I assume some of those errors were compounded by the sisters British based perception of Corona Virus, as their behaviour would indicate. I will focus on that perception later in the article. As the symptomatic sisters symptoms became more severe, the sisters were tested on June 14th, and their tests came back, positive for both of them, on June 16th. They were placed in isolation.
The NZ contact trace system kicked in and located more than 300 people who could have been infected via these two sisters, within 24 hours, and placed all on quarantine, urging them to get tested.
"Health officials are tracing 320 people who are regarded as “close contacts” of the women, and they will be urged to get tested. Close contacts could include passengers on their flight to New Zealand and other quarantined travellers at their Auckland hotel, as well as hotel staff and flight crew. The women were now in isolation with a relative, officials said."
The whole affair brought to light how important discipline is in maintaining clarity and effectiveness of the protocols. That discipline depends on everyone fully understanding the evidence, the science and the public health risks and taking appropriate steps to maintain a virus free status, and to isolate as soon as any sign of infection emerges.
Jacinda Arden spoke of these and said the errors were 'unacceptable' and ordered all compassionate leave to be suspended in future until they can be sure the best discipline is fully operational at all times.
The discipline of Government, it's officials and agencies and of the people is a critical element in any elimination strategy. From start to finish, and afterwards.
People spread the virus.
The virus is unlikely to travel on goods when proper screening is undertaken -and if a solid quarantine ans testing system is in place for all travellers, then the most likely un-quarantined infection route would be people smugglers, drug smugglers and so forth. Covert and unofficial lines of transmission which can only be countered by extreme vigilance, rapid and unrelenting action and confrontation. Systems exist for that purpose.
Elimination Strategy is simple in principle, complex in practice, complicated by power gaming.
Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus - when there is a given population, a bordered territory and the state has the ability to pick up every symptomatic case, and has the ability to trace every contact, observe those contacts in quarantine and has top notch provision for treatment of anyone presenting with symptoms, away from the community, that state can eliminate the virus within that population.
Bit by bit, day by day, until they close down all community transmission, and have everyone in treatment being cared for, and they have a situation where they have no new infections for two weeks after the last deaths, and the last recoveries from the disease, then that population can be sure that no more transmission of the live virus is occurring. The virus cannot live long outside the human body. It can only transmit from body to body. The State and community must still maintain vigilance.
This can be done, all of it, without total shut down.
12 weeks is the length of time it takes to move through this entire protocol in any population, the only limiting factor being the volume of resources deployed. Where community transmission is out of control, then massive resources are required because more ground has to be covered, rapidly.
Shut down is only needed when community transmission is out of control - which was the status in mid January in Wuhan, and in late February, March and into April in the UK.
Community Transmission out of control.
Unfortunately, community transmission is still out of control in the UK in spite of the effort and endurance of vast majority of British people staying home, staying safe. The UK has not managed to 'control the virus' and is perilously close to starting a second peak as I write. I say second peak, because for their to be a second wave, there must be a trough in between, and that is not the case.
This is entirely down to the failures of the UK Government to take the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus route from the outset. The responsibility lies with the Conservative and Unionist Party Government, with Parliament and the News media, which has behaved in a most feeble manner. No-one else. Current estimates of excess deaths due to the virus and other effects from bad policy choices is 65,000+. This is terrifying and infuriating in equal measure. I am ok, personally. I have had the disease, five weeks of awful illness. I have lung and kidney issues since then, slowly improving. I have stopped smoking, and I am taking exercise every day and doing some running. This is not my personal fear anymore. I have degrees of immunity. I am resilient.
However at the age of 60, I have many friends whose situation is not so secure. Friends and family members with chronic disease conditions, cancer and other illnesses that put them all at greater risk of severe or even lethal outcomes should they become infected. They do not feel this government is doing it's utmost to protect them. They do not feel safe. I also have friends who have bought into the conspiracy theories, and others who are Brexiteers who support Johnson no matter what else is happening. But they are a minority. Most people I know are aware, paying close attention to the science and are taking care of one another, enduring the situation. Good people predominate.
The problem in the UK is not the people. The problem has been the UK Governments atrocious handling of the situation. The deliberate delays in responding at the beginning, the lack of PPE and other equipment, the wholly ill-advised and inadequate policies they have chosen, their deliberately confusing public messaging, the prevalence of unethical theory (Herd Immunity) and opinion over scientific, epidemiological and public health practice evidence, the lack of adequate support for pre-existing stresses across the community as they were shunted into sudden shut-down, the willingness of the Government to lie and dissemble about their failures and decisions, their readiness to place resources in the wrong hands, and a media that is even still unwilling to confront a lethally dishonest Government head-on have all combined to guarantee the spread of the virus and have lead to 60,000+ excess deaths within four months. Why did the UK Government avoid the obvious elimination protocol? It's not rocket science! Making Elimination Strategy Work.
This is entirely down to the failures of the UK Government to take the Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus route from the outset. The responsibility lies with the Conservative and Unionist Party Government, with Parliament and the News media, which has behaved in a most feeble manner. No-one else. Current estimates of excess deaths due to the virus and other effects from bad policy choices is 65,000+. This is terrifying and infuriating in equal measure. I am ok, personally. I have had the disease, five weeks of awful illness. I have lung and kidney issues since then, slowly improving. I have stopped smoking, and I am taking exercise every day and doing some running. This is not my personal fear anymore. I have degrees of immunity. I am resilient.
However at the age of 60, I have many friends whose situation is not so secure. Friends and family members with chronic disease conditions, cancer and other illnesses that put them all at greater risk of severe or even lethal outcomes should they become infected. They do not feel this government is doing it's utmost to protect them. They do not feel safe. I also have friends who have bought into the conspiracy theories, and others who are Brexiteers who support Johnson no matter what else is happening. But they are a minority. Most people I know are aware, paying close attention to the science and are taking care of one another, enduring the situation. Good people predominate.
The problem in the UK is not the people. The problem has been the UK Governments atrocious handling of the situation. The deliberate delays in responding at the beginning, the lack of PPE and other equipment, the wholly ill-advised and inadequate policies they have chosen, their deliberately confusing public messaging, the prevalence of unethical theory (Herd Immunity) and opinion over scientific, epidemiological and public health practice evidence, the lack of adequate support for pre-existing stresses across the community as they were shunted into sudden shut-down, the willingness of the Government to lie and dissemble about their failures and decisions, their readiness to place resources in the wrong hands, and a media that is even still unwilling to confront a lethally dishonest Government head-on have all combined to guarantee the spread of the virus and have lead to 60,000+ excess deaths within four months. Why did the UK Government avoid the obvious elimination protocol? It's not rocket science! Making Elimination Strategy Work.
To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and the people must have a rigorous discipline and there must be genuine trust in the process among the population.
To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and Health Authorities must have superb contact tracing up and running, the State must make quarantine and isolation treatment an integral part of track and trace, and it must be made as easy and as comfortable as possible for the people affected to comply, and the State must resource the protocols fully, no questions asked.
That means the State and Health and Education systems must have superb, honest and transparent communication to the population, at all levels, at all times. The only must the Boris Johnson was familiar with was the Island of Mustique. The Role of The Press.
To make Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus work the State and Health Authorities must have superb contact tracing up and running, the State must make quarantine and isolation treatment an integral part of track and trace, and it must be made as easy and as comfortable as possible for the people affected to comply, and the State must resource the protocols fully, no questions asked.
That means the State and Health and Education systems must have superb, honest and transparent communication to the population, at all levels, at all times. The only must the Boris Johnson was familiar with was the Island of Mustique. The Role of The Press.
The press and news media must be willing to debunk and dismiss all contheories, concepts such as herd immunity and other woowoo health claims, in order to insulate the population and the politicians from any possibility of such nonsense afflicting public policy or public behaviour. Spreading lies to allow a virus to spread is not free speech!
We are all in this together.
It has to be that the entire population, the State, the press are operating on an evidence base for the correct action to be taken, so that the discipline is emergent, collective, engaged rather than imposed and draconian. Honesty must prevail, Scientifically and Ideologically.
The likes of David Icke, Nigel Farage, Trump and Johnson lies and manipulations such as the 'China Virus' idiocy, and other such statements by leading politicians and so forth cannot be allowed to run free. They have to be debunked. Openly, transparently. Honest Borders.
We are all in this together.
It has to be that the entire population, the State, the press are operating on an evidence base for the correct action to be taken, so that the discipline is emergent, collective, engaged rather than imposed and draconian. Honesty must prevail, Scientifically and Ideologically.
The likes of David Icke, Nigel Farage, Trump and Johnson lies and manipulations such as the 'China Virus' idiocy, and other such statements by leading politicians and so forth cannot be allowed to run free. They have to be debunked. Openly, transparently. Honest Borders.
The State must also accept that it will have to police the borders intensely, that the populations holidays must be taken within the populations territory, that all private cross border travel must endure a well monitored quarantine, including billionaires in private jets, for as long as the quarantine is needed.
Immigration must cease until there are virus clear countries at both starting and ending journey countries, and it must also be disciplined by a two week quarantine.
Air travel for tourism, right now, is a luxury that we do not need. Air Freight is another matter. Land freight and sea freight must be handled with care.
Cross border Cruise and Tourism are luxuries - we do not not need them. When local populations take holidays in own countries, the income stays at home, this is better for everyone, and potentially there will be less carbon exhaust particulates in the air. Stop overs in infected areas cannot happen, of course. The workers need to be furloughed, for the 12 week period. The Companies can be helped.
Aviation and Tourism will take a hit, but only for as long as it takes to Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus s in departure/destination areas. Their ability to lobby governments to take stupid action has to be curtailed. They deserve support from the State just as any others do. According to their needs to stay afloat.
12 weeks, three months. It is not too much to ask, given the potential death toll of allowing the virus to infection millions upon millions of people, among them 11.5 million vulnerable people.
Allowing Herd Immunity is cruelty.
The alternative to Elimination of uncontrolled spread of the virus is slowly achieving herd immunity across a given population at the practical HI level of 93% and unfortunately that guarantees that all vulnerable people WILL be exposed and that will come with a fatality and human damage cost which is unethical to consider for economic reasons, precisely because it is avoidable. It is wholly unethical to permit heard immunity by exposure. There is so much that is still unknown about the long term effects of this virus that to drop the precautionary principle at this early stages is epidemiological stupidity, and reckless misGovernance.
Unless a State Establishment wants to exploit the virus to rereig Economies and State systems, in which case ethics are irrelevant. Trump and Johnson are two leaders who have ably demonstrated that ethics mean nothing to them personally or politically. Go figure current policy behaviour and outcomes.
Unless a State Establishment wants to exploit the virus to rereig Economies and State systems, in which case ethics are irrelevant. Trump and Johnson are two leaders who have ably demonstrated that ethics mean nothing to them personally or politically. Go figure current policy behaviour and outcomes.
Which is precisely what the UK and US Governments are doing, today, right now, right before your eyes. They are exploiting the situation, and causing great harm. This is insane, and it is profoundly unethical.
"New Zealand, New Zealand!"
It has to be said, in the clearest possible terms.
This cannot be allowed to continue into the autumn. it really cannot be allowed.
Something must be done, and soon.
Kindest regards
Corneilius
"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."
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