The push for 'exit strategy' and 'exit dates' is epidemiological nonsense, it is economically incoherent blather, it is socially and materially toxic.
Full suppression of community transmission, supported by intensely effective cluster control is the only viable option that meets the full duty of care of Government to the people. That is not set by date, but by results and results alone.
Here's three articles exploring this theme.
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/25/how-uk-can-fix-pandemic-suppress-vaccinate-eliminate/
"The virus has few options for survival in the world. It cannot last long on surfaces or in the air, the vast majority of human hosts will successfully kill off the virus within two to three weeks of infection and a small minority will die with it.
Either way, the virus has a very small window to reach a new host or perish. No new human hosts means no more virus. This is why elimination is not only biologically possible, but has already been achieved in many countries around the world.
We must suppress the virus as the population is immunised. As vaccination occurs, lockdown measures become more effective, and the rate of transmission (the ‘R’) falls further still. And as we come into the spring and summer, we gain the additional advantages of better weather, better ventilation and easier outdoor gatherings."
andhttps://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/04/eradication-argument-for-eradication.html
"If the Government were to move immediately to stopping the spread with an eye to eradication, we could clear the infection within three months.
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/01/the-coronavirus-crisis-eight-week-suppression-strategy-could-stop-covid-19-in-its-tracks-says-ex-who-director/
We have the resources, we have the people, we have the desire - but do the Government share this vision?
The aim is to find all infection routes and to chase them down to where everyone infected is known and observed, and no new infections are starting - when the virus runs out of new hosts, it vanishes in that population. Quarantine must be fully implemented upon all incoming and returning domestic and international air, sea and land travel. Even from Northern Ireland."
and
https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/04/eradicating-virus-protecting-herd-or.html
"By slowing down rather than stopping the spread of infection the UK government are guaranteeing that the bulk of the population will become infected and the mortality rate for vulnerable people will stay the same, it will just happen more slowly.
The 'shut-down' policy was sold as an attempt to ensure NHS and other health services do not collapse under a 'short term' burden. They ordered the isolation of all elderly people and known cases of immune compromised chronic conditions, without any provision to protect them from the spread.
That theory was destroyed by the lack of PPE, shortages of trained staff, lack of other supplies, kit and logistical support which the Government was warned about, in detail, from Operation Cygnus in 2016 and throughout January 2020. All deliberate choices by this Government and it's predecessors.
The UK Government had time to prepare, they had the time to stop and check and quarantine the inflow of infected people from abroad, via air travel and cruises, and land be they immigrants, returning holiday makers or business travellers.
Merely slowing down the spread of infection is exactly what the Chinese, Korean, Singaporean and Taiwanese Governments did NOT contemplate - they went for eradication - find every case, quarantine all contacts, treat everyone who is symptomatic in isolation hospitals, maintain vigilance, deal with outbreaks rapidly until no new cases emerge after two months."
Whatever it takes, we must not allow a repeat of the re-open while community transmission is ongoing leading to inevitable exponential spread and further lockdowns to happen. Again.
Each lockdown is an admission of failure to act correctly to suppress the virus within the community.
http://zerocovid.uk/2021/01/13/uk-government-sinks-to-new-low-on-covid/
"Matt Hancock says that a Zero Covid strategy is not feasible for the UK. Priti Patel, with the collusion of the mass media, blames the public recalcitrance for the unfolding catastrophe. These are the twin strands of a state narrative that is preparing us for the next wave in its strategy, which will plumb new depths of callousness: fully opening up the economy once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, and allowing the virus to rip unimpeded through the rest of the population.
Dangerous
This strategy is highly dangerous for two reasons: allowing the virus to spread without hindrance increases the risk of further mutations, one of which might well be resistant to the vaccines, and it exposes tens of millions of people to potential long term health risks that are still not fully understood.
Hancock is wrong to dismiss the possibility of eliminating this virus. New Zealand has now lifted all restrictions, having achieved zero transmission. Vietnam, with a population of 90 million, and Taiwan, with a population density higher than that of the UK, have all successfully pursued elimination strategies. If it can be done there, it can be done everywhere."
and
The government’s mantra on Covid-19 should be: “Get it down, keep it down, and keep it out”, writes Professor Gabriel Scally in The Guardian.
“There can be no such thing as a partial quarantine. Either it is comprehensive and effective, or it will fail. A differential approach based on country of origin is undermined by the difficulty of accurately ascertaining where arrivals have come from.”
Every country has a duty of care to every other country during a pandemic to neither export or import the infectious virus. UK Government, specifically the Westminster Ruling Faction, has deliberately failed that duty of care. Deliberately. Not an accident, not incompetence.
Vaccines and Variants and the costs of deliberate slow spread policy..
Vaccines have been oversold as the pandemic exit strategy. This is a point I have made a number of times. The rush to Vaccine is in part an admission of the failure to adopt a zero community transmission strategy. It offers hope where ZCT offers a degree of certainty. Hope, in this case, kills.
The Financial Times published this piece, and it is a relief to see it.
https://www.ft.com/content/17c44c96-39f2-4ada-badd-d65815b0a521
"If regions with raging transmission do act as breeding grounds for resistant variants, then failing to control spread will prolong the pandemic. Prof de Oliveira stresses that Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand, which have chased elimination, are the role models to follow. “This should be a wake-up call for all of us to control transmission, not just in our own regions but globally. This virus will keep outsmarting us if we don’t take it very seriously,” he says.
That means not just vaccinating but fast testing, accurate and quick contact tracing, quarantine and isolation. In short, vaccination must go hand-in-hand with virus suppression, not become a substitute for it. A successful vaccine rollout will count for little if the country then becomes a crucible for resistant variants"
The Kent Variant tells us something about tourism, international travel the need for effective, tight quarantine and the need to reduce the amount of people who become exposed to the virus - every new case is a possibility of the virus making new adaptations that we really do not need to be seeing.
Update February 13th - a very useful twitter thread written by Deepti Gurdasani, Senior Lecturer, Queen Mary University London in epidemiology, statistical genetics, machine learning, where she speaks about being invited undertake interviews and panel discussions with the BBC, LBC and others and finds that not only is she effectively censored, the subject of zero community transmission is being deliberately omitted from all discussions on the COVID19 crisis (catastrophe).
In the thread she works through the full scope of the meaning of zero community transmission vs slow spread towards 'herd immunity' and outlines the evidence on either side of this 'debate'.
It is worth reading it through.
The question is simple - the economic costs of zero community transmission strategy and quarantine borders vs the human and economic costs of slow spread towards herd immunity, with repeated cycles of re-opening and shut down as the viral infection spreads in waves.
Kindest regards
Corneilius
"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."
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