Saturday, 10 July 2021

The Virus will eventually force governments to adopt a Suppression Strategy. Duty of Care applies universally.

The Virus will eventually force governments to adopt a suppression of community transmission strategy.  

Duty of care is a universal humane social value, from the family to the village, from the country to the city, a fundamental ethic and the benchmark of every healthy Government, and of every healthy adult, even if some Governments and some adults fail to meet that measure. Their failures do not alter the universality of duty of care.

The Virus is stronger than neo-Liberal Free Market Governments, their ideology and their deliberate mismanagement of local epidemics, and of the global pandemic.

How the mighty are exposed by a minute organism. The Virus is telling us all - we are in this together.

Breaking  community transmission locally, nationally and globally is the go-to evidence led, grounded, proven strategy. It works. It is not to be confused with eradication. Zero Covid is used as a term to indicate heading towards the lowest possible incidence, rather than total eradication. Beware those who twist words to sustain the unsustainable. They say eradication is impossible. The dare not speak of elimination strategy. Allowing community transmission to persist, in an attempt to manage a slow spread is always going to lead to uncontrolled surges, and is unsustainable.

To repeatedly impose that slow spread upon a community, or an entire countries population, in spite of the evidence of disease, long Covid and fatalities as a direct result of 'slowing the spread'... is psychopathic behaviour.

Vaccines reduce severity of some aspects of acute disease, but do not appear to reduce long-covid occurrence. Vaccines quite clearly do not impede transmission.

Thus while it is true that vaccines on their own do reduce severity of some of the harms, be it disease are fatality, it is also very clear now that when used alone or as the primary intervention whilst excluding elimination or suppression strategy, the vaccine will still allow the virus to persist in the community, and that comes with the potential for variants emerging that can alter the situation radically. It is a known unknown. 

It is epidemiological stupidity to not avoid that situation when we know we can do so. It is epidemiological common sense to avoid that situation when we know we can do so.

Every country that allows spread is creating the conditions the virus thrives in. 

Johnson and Javid's assertion that they hope that rapid mass infection now will prevent a greater surge in the Autumn is lethal, venal nonsense. They are not public health experts. They are salesmen of false prospectus's by trade.

1000 avoidable fatalities a week.  What would the English population have done had that been the death toll of British Troops in Afghanistan or Iraq?

The English Government and their media allies are purveyors of anti-social, anti-scientific nonsense.

#JohnsonVariant #ZerroCovid

Every Government that delays implementing an effective elimination of community transmission loses social and moral legitimacy by that delay, on a daily basis. Every avoidable horrific death is a black mark against them. Every News outlet that masks that illegitimacy and covers for those delays is betraying the basic tenets of honest news journalism and descends into propaganda and amoral cant.

Illegitimate government has only the option of force and guile to remain in power. 

Crunch time for Western Industrial Democracy lies ahead.

Mike Ryan, WHO director, puts it bluntly, answering a BBC journalist.

Mass infection.

Lancet article  : Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young 

"We have previously pointed to the dangers of relying on immunity by natural infection, and we have five main concerns with the UK Government's plan to lift all restrictions at this stage of the pandemic.

1. First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. 

2. Second, high rates of transmission in schools and in children will lead to significant educational disruption, adding to and  exacerbating chronic stress amongst pupils who are already presenting with clinical mental health problems in growing numbers. 

3. Third, preliminary modelling data suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.

4. Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves.

5. Fifth, as deprived communities are more exposed to and more at risk from COVID-19, these policies will continue to disproportionately affect the most vulnerable and marginalised, deepening inequalities."

The full article is well worth the read.

Be warned against the tactic of citing the harms of mismanagement to argue the case for more mismanagement, or even worse mismanagement.

This image lays out the Johnson pattern.

A disease requiring a socialist solution!

Elimination strategy is a collectivist solution to a collective problem. Power and resources must be devolved to the locale, funding supplied by the central administration. Crony contracts are individualistic, minting new millionaires by the many dozens, whilst providing inefficient service. Test and trace is a farce, hospitals do not have adequate supplies of N95 masks, which by could have been manufactured in the UK.

That is what is underneath the globalised Neo-Liberal rejection of Elimination Strategy, and the kicker for me is that I think that they know this.  They are conscious of this. Fully aware of the implications. The just don't care about our lives, as ordinary human beings, as persons, as families and communities. Indeed the more divided we are, the more secure in their power they are. Misinformation comes from government, flows through parliament unchallenged. Disinformation flows on-line and in some news media. Omicron symptoms are not 'mild'.

The Neoliberals reject Elimination Strategy because it verifies the social material validity of genuine social care as a material reality. It repudiates individualism.

The Human species thrives best when we co-operate in our care for one another.

Without hosts, the virus dies out.

This virus 'learns' from every new situation it meets, but without hosts it cannot learn those new tricks, without new hosts it dies out.  With a reduced population of hosts those risks are minimised. 

The Johnson policy is Tinder for the Virus seeking new dating partners.

The Johnson Government is determined to provide the virus with the maximum numbers of hosts, based on spurious claims of 'protecting the economy' with a 'herd immunity' strategy. That is exonomic and epidemiological nonsense.

Elimination strategy, I repeat, prevents most of the social harms associated with Mitigation policy, and it reduces the economic harms of an epidemic. This has been proven beyond any doubt.

Every country that stops the spread in the community (with  efficient well resourced Elimination strategy - Find, Test, Trace, Quarantine, Isolate, Treat and Support) is doing that which the virus cannot surmount.  It cannot live, expand and develop more effective variants if it cannot find new hosts.

Trying to live with this virus is epidemiological stupidity.  It is inviting  trouble, indefinitely.

In this pandemic, every State has layered duties of care.

1. The resources must be made available to everyone to stop the spread of the virus within the community. This must be so, in order that each State can protect it's own people and their economy - this is what China, Vietnam, Norway, Iceland, New Zealand and others are doing. Elimination strategy is not a utopic solution :  the task is complex because there are many needs to be met in order to avoid avoidable harm.

These needs are not competing needs. The needs of children for education within Covid safe schools is not in competition with the need for care homes to be equipped with HEPA filters, and staffed by carers who are largely vaccinated, and supplied with PPF2 masks as a minimum. 

The needs of the entertainment industry are not in competition with the needs of Hospitals. Keeping hospitals free of Covid cases is the same need as enabling live entertainment to operate safely.

The only competing needs are those of between the welfare of the population and those of power enhancement and profiteering.

2. Another duty of care is to never export the pathogen- this is a duty of care to other states, to the global community of Humanity.  That means tightly quarantined borders for people traffic. PCR checks prior to embarking on international travel, quarantine on arrival. This can be done. It is expensive, yes, but it puts money back into the economy. It is money well spent in public health terms.

This does not have to impact freight trade to any significant degree of disruption. Indeed shut downs due to failure to control spread do more harm to commercial activity than quarantined borders does. Extra care yes, major disruptions no.

3. Vaccines must be made widely available, in every country, Intellectual Property rights must be waived and the tech, the know how and the expertise to produce medicines, and to react quickly to new variants must be shared equitably across all of humanity. 

These duties of care are humane baselines, a benchmark for and of Humanity.

These duties of care are eminently do-able. They can be met. They must be met.

The evidence is that these duties of care are being met in some cases. 1.8 billion people are being protected, and their economies are being protected and they are not being subjected to mass infection, huge levels of disease, chronic long term disease and fatalities, with immense economic harms that follow from repeated national level shutdowns. 

Those countries operating Elimination Strategy are being placed at risk by those countries that have rejected Elimination Strategy. States and their Governments that chose instead to attempt to control 'slow spread' of the virus, described as 'mitigation' aka living with the virus are putting the whole population of humanity at greater risk. Avoiding the avoidable harms is common sense. The decent thing to do.

That choice reflects a denial of reality, science, epidemiology and public health best practice.

Such control is impossible. It is not possible to manage 'slow spread' of this infectious virus. 

Denial is not a river in North Africa.

In England, the primary obstacle is the English Conservative and Unionist Government, the news media, Parliamentary unwillingness and inability to confront the Government with the evidence that elimination strategy works best, by every measure, and the proliferation of misinformation, disinformation and woo. That's quite an obstacle.

The English Government of today remind me of the English Government during the Irish and Bengali Famines. They say the same kinds of things, make similar promises they do not intend to keep, and they accept the collateral damage the citizens must bear, for them to remain in Power.

I have argued last year that the behaviour of this English Johnson Government is malfeasance in public office, with lethal consequences for hundreds of thousands of people, serious long term adverse health issues for millions. and economic harms for tens of millions. 

I argued they should be arrested, charged, indicted and held on remand and a government of national unity installed to operate a proper elimination strategy in order to prevent further harms.

I argued that when the death toll was still under 30,000 and we had minimal public data on Long Covid. I was, sad to report, correct. I hate that I am correct because the harms are unbearable, more so because they were all avoidable.

Both climate and the virus are telling Humanity - you are all in this together, and you will only get through it, working together, by looking out for each other.

Kindest regards


"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."


Blue Eagle said...

One thing that I rarely hear, or never hear for that matter, is the connection between our toxic lifestyle (including vaccines and overuse of prescription medications) and the appearance off his virus.
Our trees are dying in the case of Ash and Larch (2 of our most precious renewable resources), the earth is struggling under the pressure of our toxic lifestyle - and we are too.
The earth can’t take any more free market, profit incentivised economic action. It is weakened, and so we are weakened.
I really appreciate your point of view as this ties in well with my desire to see humanity revolutionise the way that we live on the planet and look after one another.
We NEED to live locally and think globally. Never before has this been more true.
Big Love to you brother and thanks for all you do. X

Angel said...

Could not agree more! This blog is spot on.