Peace is more than the absence of war. Peace is a total cultural shift.

The within all studied Hierarchy of Power Cultures the lived experience of child abuse is more common than rare. This is a true statement - a significant portion of our population, generation after generation, in homes, schools, institutions and in the community, experience chronic  abuse as children, and many people as adults live with a constant background of abuse.

Racism, Misogyny, Xenophobia, Structural Poverty, Able-ism and other layered socially instituted  generic hatreds are very much common behavioural characteristics of this culture into which I was born.  

When we study the evolution of the human neuro-endocrine system and how it functions we discover something.

Egalitarian life was generally peaceful,  beautiful, healthy, grounded in solid attachment and mature affective state self regulation which reduced incidence of lost tempers and general violence
.
This will trigger some people within a culture where self regulation is dysregulated more often than not.

Those abusive behaviours are exceedingly rare and more usually unknown in healthy egalitarian pre-conquest cultures. They do emerge in previously egalitarian cultures post conquest, as an outcome of the trauma of collision with conquest, hierarchy cultures.

These abuse behaviours are common to all Hierarchy cultures, apart from Racism which is specific to Euro-Christian White Colonial Slavery Culture and which persists to this day. "White People did not exist before 1681!"

This chart reflects the compilation and statistical analysis of a wide ranging surveys of many hundreds of different cultures that looks at a spectrum of behaviour from Egalitarian to Hierarchically Violent. A key variant that is found to be a predictor of the nature of any given culture is the way the culture relates to children.





This chart, prepared by James Prescott, is in large part drawn from the work of Robert B Textor in "A Cross Cultural Summary"

"It presents a series of some 20,000 statements, grouped according to a list of standard cultural categories, that describe which of a large number of variables (all more or less conventionally dichotomized) are associated beyond chance expectations with which other dichotomous variables, in the 400-culture sample assembled by George P. Murdock for the Ethnographic Atlas. 

The variables examined and intercorrelated in this largely computer-written survey are all those employed in 38 published or completed cross-cultural studies, plus those that have been coded for the Ethnographic Atlas. 

The volume is, I would say, easy to use. The compiler has carefully and explicitly described all of his procedural decisions, as well as providing a brief but thoughtful introduction to some of the principles of statistical cross-cultural research.

In short, as Harold Driver says in a dust jacket blurb: “There is no longer any excuse for tossing around unconfirmed and impressionistic generalizations, when thousands of sound propositions, based on world-wide samples, are now available in this impressive compilation.’’ 

I would put this injunction even more strongly: any ethnologist who assumes a correlation between two variables that have already been the subjects of cross-cultural study will henceforth be professionally remiss if he does not check his assumption in the pages of this volume.

But useful as such checks will be, particularly to exploratory comparative studies, the reader of this volume should remember that failure to find statistical support for some assumed causal relationship does not necessarily mean he should abandon his assumption."

Review by Melvin Ember, Hunter College, in American Anthropologist 1969 p.918

In other words, this is a serious compilation and survey of cultural characteristics. The charts are accurate representations of social or cultural behavioural characteristics. This is solid, grounded evidence. 

The recent work of Robert Sapolsky,  Behave : Humans at our worst and best and previous work by E. Richard Sorenson from the book Tribal Epistemologies: Essays in the Philosophy of Anthropology and the work of Allan Schore in the neuroscience of emotional self  regulation and development in the first two years of life, all confirm this overview - the default state of the human species is trust, we are egalitarian by our evolutionary development. There are many others whose work confirms this thesis. 

The following assertion is no longer in the realm of hypothesis.

Our Human bodies, brains and minds are perfectly evolved for love, connection, trust, creativity, bonding, healthy attachment with grounded individual autonomy, as a core part of a functional collectivist socially nurturing dynamic, not in spite of it. 

Because we are evolved to adapt to a wide range of habitats, and because we are as infants sensitive and vulnerable, and thus ready to learn about our new world, it is the case we must learn the behaviours that function best within the egalitarian trust default state, from our parents, siblings and wider community without direct instruction, (our brains are evolved to learn by experience, rather than being genetically programmed to generate behaviour) and it is the case that these fundamentals are distorted by childhood trauma that remains unresolved and/or chronic stress that afflicts a culture that persists over generations.
 
Back to the future, here and now...

Child abuse statistics for England and Wales in 2019

Just a quick glance at the statistics in England and Wales, for example, reveals the following :

 Of the 6,971 convictions for child abuse-flagged cases in the latest year:

  • 81% (5,668) entered a guilty plea
  • 19% (1,301) were convicted after trial
  • fewer than 1% (two) were proved in absence
  • Around one in five (21%) child abuse-flagged prosecutions in the latest year were unsuccessful in securing a conviction, equating to 1,843 prosecutions.

Source : Office for National Statistics 2019

To put that that into a more informal perspective, if the details of each conviction were read out in the daily 6pm News, it would average out at 19 cases per day, 365 days of the year. That would jump to 25 a day, for a 5 day working week. A further 20% of cases do not achieve a conviction - that is not to say the defendant was acquitted, proven innocent. One in twenty cases reported lead to a charge, or summons. Even that sorry statistic does not cover the full extent of abuse of children across England and Wales.

In 2019 a total of "around 227,500 identifiable child abuse offences recorded by the police in the year ending March 2019. It is important to note that some of these offences occurred more than a year ago. For example, where data were available from the Home Office Data Hub, 34% of sexual offences against children recorded by the police in the year ending March 2019 occurred one year or more ago. This includes 21% of cases which occurred 10 years or more ago."

Comments by one of the statisticians add weight to the assertion that child abuse is more common than rare across this culture.

"By its very nature, child abuse is often hidden from view and many cases don’t come to the attention of the police or the courts. Of identifiable child abuse offences recorded by the police in the year ending March 2019, 1 in 25 resulted in a charge or summons. Of cases that did lead to a prosecution, 4 in 5 resulted in a conviction. We see similar trends in figures for sexual offences. Of course, both crimes are particularly sensitive in nature and some have occurred a long time in the past making them more challenging to investigate.” Meghan Elkin, Centre for Crime and Justice, Office for National Statistics

Add to these crimes of abuse against children, violence perpetrated against women and other instances of violence between adults that litter our newspapers, fill our courts and cause immense distress. One in five school children in English Schools reported being bullied on school premises in surveys carried out in 2018 - 2019.  The bullying follows the vulnerable online at a similar rate.  Rape and sexual harassment are background threats every women is aware of.

Clearly we have a problem that is being experienced at the cultural level, rather than being a question of few bad apples.

Adverse Outcomes for Survivors

I am a survivor of protracted severe childhood abuse and bullying by adults and other children. In my adult life I have endured poverty, destitution, loss, depression and severe psychological distress. This is typical for many of the people who have endured childhood abuse, bullying and other adverse situations.

I have to and do take a certain amount of responsibility for the choices I have made, the errors I have made, the flaws in my behaviour and attitudes - nonetheless, the  larger part of my distress was caused to me by others, and exacerbated by the lack of supportive or protective structures within this culture.

I consider myself one of the lucky ones.

The trauma of war is caused by a few who launch the war, and the many who endure do so under the greatest of strains, and largely do so unreported, whereas the people agencies that initiate and prosecute war have daily headlines to urge their case.

"Given the situation I was born into, the culture and society as it is set up and everything that I experienced, the things that should have happened that did not, and the things that should not have happened that did, it is no wonder I feel the way I do."



In the process of getting through all of that I have spent a lot of time examining my own life. I could say that I was trying to put together the pieces that were broken, reclaim the parts of me that I had lost. I  have been on a journey survival, a path of self directed learning about myself, in this life, in this culture, for 40 years. I am 61 years old.

My gradual understanding of and the integration of my lived experience has been buoyed up the many decent kind people I have met along the way.  In spite of the culture, most people are pretty decent and I have been fortunate to meet mostly decent people, and to have siblings whose love and kindness have helped me weather the storms of my life. time and time again. 

I have also been inspired and informed by the written work of superb researchers in the areas that my experience drew me to - people such as Alice Miller, Judith Herman, Robert Sapolsky, Vincent Felletti, Carl Rogers, Oliver James, Sue Gerhardt, David B Chamberlain, Joseph Chilton Pearce, Allan Schore, David Smail, Suki Pryce, Rutger Bregman, James W Prescott, John Bowlby Colm O'Gorman and many, many others - there is a list on the side bar of this blog, an incomplete list, and it gives a flavour of my 'scholarship' which has been and remains an informal, self directed process of study and learning.

My study has ranged over many subjects including biology, history, geography, anthropology, paleology, neuroscience, endocrinology, biochemistry, economics, studies of civilisations, technology, the history of writing, architecture, agriculture, horticulture, permaculture, behavioural psychology, evolutionary psychology, war fare, medicine, child development, trauma studies, linguistics, religions, shamanism, animism, power relationships, herbalism and music and more..

I have been taken in by a number of cults, and have assumed entire belief systems and lived those until I inevitably came to a point where the real world evidence undermines some aspect of the belief, and I am forced to drop the belief, and return to a confusing, painful reality, sometimes with a bump, sometimes with the greatest sense of relief and liberation.

In the end we all seek liberation from oppressive situations that dominate our lives.

Freedom is not as some would have it taking the liberty to do as one wants, not least as others around us suffer - freedom exists only in entire populations not being oppressed, bullied, hated, shot at, bombed from the air, impoverished, poisoned or polluted by agencies and powers far greater than the individual, greater even than the communities we all live within.

Peace is more than the absence of war.

9 September 2014 - United Nations Statement

Underscoring that peace is more than just the absence of war, United Nations officials  stressed the need for concerted efforts to achieve the common vision of a life of dignity and well-being for all.

“We know that peace cannot be decreed solely through treaties – it must be nurtured through the dignity, rights and capacities of every man and woman,” Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in his remarks to the High-level Forum on the Culture of Peace, convened by the General Assembly. “It is a way of being, of interacting with others, of living on this planet.”

In September 1999, the Assembly adopted, by consensus, a resolution on the Declaration and Programme of Action on a Culture of Peace. Since then, it has met annually to discuss the issue, as well as how to advance this noble goal.

Mr. Ban said that peace means access to education, health and essential services – especially for girls and women; giving every young woman and man the chance to live as they choose; and developing sustainably and protecting the planet’s biodiversity."


My 40 years of enquiry, of honest effort and exploration of this lived experience, which we all share, for better or for worse, has taught me much.

Delivering remarks on behalf of Assembly President John Ashe, Vice-President Isabelle F. Picco said the desire for a culture of peace knows no boundaries and is inherent in the hearts of all people.

“It transcends gender, culture, religion, faith and belief, and unites the rich and poor, the old and young, East and West, North and South around a common desire.”

She added that the post-2015 development agenda that Member States are currently working on must be rooted in a culture of peace.

“Peace as an overarching theme must be woven throughout the goals and underpin the targets,” Ms. Picco stated. “And our new agenda must be backed by the political will, commitment, partnerships and financial support to help usher in a new era of peace on a global level.”


This culture - Industrial Militarised Competing Power Culture - is an unhealthy culture.

The invasion of Iraq, the bombing of Libya, the polluting of our air with exhaust particulates that find their way into our beloved babies wombs are all adverse outcomes of absolutely unhealthy behaviour.

Abuse on a colossal scale.

The Industrial Militarised Competing Power Culture can be described as a complex post traumatic stressed disordered culture, as a hierarchy of violence and power culture, and as a trauma generating culture that normalises aspects of unresolved post trauma coping mechanisms as normative behaviour. It is a culture that sustains unresolved trauma as part of its internal engine and it's lurid mythos. The Gods as they are portrayed, behave like vengeful anti-social bullies. They are very much alike human beings with more power than they can safely handle. They are, of course, projections of the bully mind and culture.

One might well say it is an un-natural culture. No baby is born to become a bully, nor is any baby born to be bullied. Bullying is a distorted behaviour that distorts those who are bullied in turn. Chronic stress imposed by the presence of bullying absolutely undermines the natural default development of children and adults.


Allan Schore on the evolutionary biology and psychology of emotional self regulation as it develops.


We are by our evolutionary default egalitarian, bonded, securely attached, empathic sensitive beings/creatures who live as social puppies, in loving relationships that are able to weather the variations of a changing and dynamic habitat. This is our evolutionary default.

Snow blizzards, rain storms, sunny droughts, day or night, floods, tsunami's, volcanoes and general natural changes and so on - when we survive we survive largely because of luck and because of our attachment to one another, our intelligence and quick wits, our creativity and our fraternity. 

This is proven to some extent by the story of the Aboriginal people's of Australia, 80,000 years of continued thriving communities. It is the oldest narrative of the human species. Pre-historical. And there remains a core of Aboriginal people who live in those old ways, who retain the social behavioural characteristics of the healthy human culture, in spite of oppression and the conquest culture's denial of their validity. Indeed there are an estimated population of 360 million indigenous, undeveloped people's across Earth and they are all at risk of extinction entirely due to this culture I was born into.

Our default is trust. until we are subjected to chronic traumatising stressors. Then everything becomes distorted. This is the historical narrative.  I have written about this before, outlining a theory that the Hierarchy culture is the result of an egalitarian culture that was traumatised, and for what ever reasons, was unable to resolve the trauma, and remained in fight or flight reactive mode which engendered normalising controlling behaviour patterns.


Our problem of healing is not an evolutionary problem  - we are more highly evolved for good health and love than anything else.

Our problem of healing is not a matter of personal flaws and failings.

Our problem of healing is a cultural problem. 

David Smail in his book "The origins of Unhappiness : a new understanding of personal distress"  - 

"It is the main argument of this book that emotional and psychological distress is often brought about through the operation of social-environmental powers which have their origin at a considerable distance from those ultimately subjected to them. 

On the whole, psychology has concerned itself very little with the field of power which stretches beyond our immediate relations with each other, and this has led to serious limitations on the explanatory power of the theories it has produced. 

To illustrate this, typical cases of patient distress in the 1980s are examined. The decade when the right-wing of politics proclaimed there was no such thing as society gave rise to psychological distress across social classes, as long-standing societal institutions were dismantled. 

This is as much a work of sociology, politics, and philosophy, as it is of psychology. Fundamentals of an environmental understanding of distress are outlined. A person is the interaction of a body with the environment."

In other words, David Smail understood that the impact of the behaviour of those who wield immense institutional and material power upon those who do not amounts to a disparity such that decisions that cause grevious harm to entire populations are made, with dreadful frequency, and little accountability.

No wonder people are distressed.

As I like to put it "Given the kind of family, community and culture I was born into, and everything that happened to me, it is no wonder that I feel the way I do."

Another way to put it is to say that a lot of human distress is often the outcome of things that should have happened not happening and things that should not have happened, happening - by agency of other human beings.

The Fruedian and Jungian Psychiatric and Psychoanalytical models are all deflections from this fundamental observation.  There are no archetypes of abusive or distressed behaviour lying dormant within the human psyche.  There is no genetic disposition to distress, other than we all suffer when we are chronically bullied, and that chronic state can trigger epigentic changes that alter our biology, that can throw it out of balance.

There is nothing 'wrong' with the person, there are only distressed persons and a distorting culture within which the person is forced to live, a culture that is very distressing. 

Robert Sapolsky in "Behave : The Biology of Humans at our best and our worst"

“The brain is heavily influenced by genes. But from birth through young adulthood, the part of the human brain that most defines us (frontal cortex) is less a product of the genes with which you started life than of what life has thrown at you. 

Because it is the least constrained by genes and most sculpted by experience. This must be so, to be the supremely complex social species that we are. Ironically, it seems that the genetic program of human brain development has evolved to, as much as possible, free the  frontal cortext from genes.”

It all comes down to culture, in the end.

Sapolsky writes “culture” is how we do and think about things, transmitted by non-genetic means."

A Hierarchy of Violence culture is a behavioural dynamic, not a genetic dynamic.

We need to abolish poverty and end war as a priority for the mental health and physiological well being of Humanity, and that must include a cessation of all invasion of lands occupied by older indigenous cultures, as the essential preparatory steps, even before we approach the issues of pollution, environment and climate change.

Kindest regards
 
Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Free Speech and Bullying in the Public Domain - thoughts on how to confront this conflict of interest

Free Speech



Free Speech is a Responsibility, it is neither an automatic Right to a free-for-all nor is it a Privilege.

The Responsibility: that when speaking to the commons, the shared space between us all we speak truthfully, transparently and  honestly, we speak to the commons and be attentive to be evidence based, to be as good a listener as a speaker and to acknowledge what is verified, reliable and true as such, and to also acknowledge beliefs as made up, as guess-work at the very best. This responsibility is absolutely critical in any matter that concerns the welfare of millions or billions of people who share the commons. It is a fundamental humane duty of care, and cannot be abrogated.

Free Speech is not a right to promote beliefs over evidence in action on matters concerning the shared commons, the welfare of people and their lives.

Free Speech is not a right to groom, manipulate or exploit others through use of language and various logical fallacies.

Lots of very clever abusive people hide behind Free Speech - the correct way to deal with that is to identify what is being done, name the precise tactic, the logical fallacies, the half truths, twists and spins and show how they inform the agenda that is being driven, and to do so in full transparency.

This blog is a REALLY useful in helping with this.

https://politicsandinsights.org/2015/01/22/how-bullying-works-projection-and-scapegoating/

"Very few people, when put to the test, have the integrity and moral courage to stand up against bullying, harassment, abuse, threats and corruption. The targets of adult bullying are selected often because they DO have the moral courage to challenge; many people will pass by on the other side.

A target of adult bullying is most often chosen because of their strength, not their weakness

Research shows
 that targets of bullying tend to have highly developed empathy, and sensitivity for others, a high degree of perceptiveness, high moral values, a well-developed integrity, a strong sense of fair play and reasonableness, a low propensity to violence, a reluctance to pursue grievance, disciplinary or legal action, a strong forgiving streak and a mature understanding of the need to resolve conflict with dialogue. 

Often,
 targets of bullying are independent, self-reliant and “different” in some way. Weak people often disingenuously confuse these hallmarks of character with weakness.

Bullies aim to inflict psychological injury more often than physical injury. Their main aim is to control, discredit, isolate and eliminate their target."

It is vital, therefore, that all decent humane people who wish to participate, contribute and engage with the deliberations on how we deal with matters that concern our collective welfare (and our individual well being) are educated to become adept at this process of confronting the tactical arsenal that bullies, ideologues, demagogues, populists and others with malign intent bring when they present their theses in the public domain, such that they are clearly identified, their tactics exposed, their activity inhibited, disabled and prevented in the first instance, thus protecting the commons from avoidable harm. 

Our collective safety and sanity demand nothing less.

Kindest regards

 Corneilius

"Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."

Letter to the Editor : Zero Community Transmission - a plea for logic, evidence and humanity

 

 

To the Editor

Everything we are seeing suggests, yet again, that the only viable strategy is zero community transmission. If the virus cannot meet a new host it cannot learn new tricks, and it dies out. Simple enough. 

Complex to organise, yes. But not complicated. Prevents death and long term chronic disease? Yes! Reduces variants? Yes!

Expensive? Yes. (ish) Cheaper than cycles of open/lockdown? Yes! Worth it? Yes! Safe? Yes!

Compare the outcomes for New Zealand, Vietnam, South Korea  with those of UK, USA, Brazil, France or Germany.

Stopping the Spread is Spreading the Love.

Can we please unite behind a workable zero community transmission strategy, now that the evidence is tragically and so shockingly clear?

Yours Sincerely,

Corneilius Crowley


Please withhold my address and phone number.

Published here

Ps. for my readers:

Survivors Bias is worth looking into, as a fundamental logical fallacy


"Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to some false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias."

This is something I have suffered from throughout my life - it leads to assuming personal traits where the outcome was actually a matter of luck, and little else.

The survivorship bias is uttterly toxic to this situation, (SARSCOV2 spread and COVID19 Disease) and is the basis os most of the ConTheory narrative - it is also the basis for assesments of the British Empire as a 'good thing all things considered' aming other things. Discounting the lived experience of those who do not survive, (death by covid19 is terrifying, painful and often lonely) and those who survive and who are traumatised, or exposed to lives of chronic illness thereafter must be opposed at every turn. To mask or diminish the reality and meaning, the qualitative data of those lived experiences is simply unacceptable behaviour.

Letter to Media : Protecting the vulnerable, defining abuse, inhibiting exploitation.



To the editor,

I propose a discussion about establishing a legal definition of a behaviour that we are all too familiar with.

“Organised operations that target peoples cognitive biases, their social wounded-nesses, their insecurities, prejudices and worries, their misunderstandings, cultural conditioning and fears, and do that through public and social media, through marketing, propaganda and media campaigns operating as cottage industries or at an industrial scale, intentionally targeting and manipulating vulnerable people for ideological, religious, political or economic advantage.”

This behaviour is grooming.

If we had legislation defining this, and then criminalising it because it is intentional exploitation of human vulnerability and thus it is a profound abuse, then media platforms would be unable to permit any publishing of such content on their platforms, and it would be impossible then to exploit as a revenue stream.”

Yours etc…

Re-opening whilst community transmission persists guarantees future lockdowns, more avoidable deaths, more variants, more harm


The question is simple - the economic costs of zero community transmission strategy and quarantine borders vs the human and economic costs of slow spread towards herd immunity, with repeated cycles of re-opening and shut down as the viral infection spreads in waves.


 a stark  and accurate depiction of the social material reality

Re-opening while we still have not fully suppressed community transmission of this virus guarantees that there will be more adverse lockdowns, more avoidable deaths,  more economic and psychological harm caused to the people - a harm that will not impact the comfortable middle class, the millionaires, multi-millionaires and billionaires as much as it will harm the people who live on low income, no income, the elderly, the disabled, the millions of people with long term chronic disease conditions and all those low paid workers who work providing 'essential services', who cannot be allowed to 'work from home'....

The push for 'exit strategy' and 'exit dates' is epidemiological nonsense, it is economically incoherent blather, it is socially and materially toxic.

Full suppression of community transmission, supported by intensely effective cluster control is the only viable option that meets the full duty of care of Government to the people. That is not set by date, but by results and results alone.

Here's three articles exploring this theme. 

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/25/how-uk-can-fix-pandemic-suppress-vaccinate-eliminate/

"The virus has few options for survival in the world. It cannot last long on surfaces or in the air, the vast majority of human hosts will successfully kill off the virus within two to three weeks of infection and a small minority will die with it.


The Pattern is clear - we must break it.

Either way, the virus has a very small window to reach a new host or perish. No new human hosts means no more virus. This is why elimination is not only biologically possible, but has already been achieved in many countries around the world.

We must suppress the virus as the population is immunised. As vaccination occurs, lockdown measures become more effective, and the rate of transmission (the ‘R’) falls further still. And as we come into the spring and summer, we gain the additional advantages of better weather, better ventilation and easier outdoor gatherings."

and

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/04/eradication-argument-for-eradication.html

"If the Government were to move immediately to stopping the spread with an eye to eradication, we could clear the infection within three months.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/01/the-coronavirus-crisis-eight-week-suppression-strategy-could-stop-covid-19-in-its-tracks-says-ex-who-director/

We have the resources, we have the people, we have the desire - but do the Government share this vision?

The aim is to find all infection routes and to chase them down to where everyone infected is known and observed, and no new infections are starting - when the virus runs out of new hosts, it vanishes in that population. Quarantine must be fully implemented upon all incoming  and returning domestic and international air, sea and land travel. Even from Northern Ireland."


and

https://dwylcorneilius.blogspot.com/2020/04/eradicating-virus-protecting-herd-or.html

"By slowing down rather than stopping the spread of infection the UK government are guaranteeing that the bulk of the population will become infected and the mortality rate for vulnerable people will stay the same, it will just happen more slowly.

The 'shut-down' policy was sold as an attempt to ensure NHS and other health services do not collapse under a 'short term' burden.  They ordered the isolation of all elderly people and known cases of immune compromised chronic conditions, without any provision to protect them from the spread.

That theory was destroyed by the lack of PPE, shortages of trained staff, lack of other supplies, kit and logistical support which the Government was warned about, in detail, from Operation Cygnus in 2016 and throughout January 2020. All deliberate choices by this Government and it's predecessors.

The UK Government had time to prepare, they had the time to stop and check and quarantine the inflow of infected people from abroad,  via air travel and cruises, and land be they immigrants, returning holiday makers or business travellers.

Merely slowing down the spread of infection is exactly what the Chinese, Korean, Singaporean  and Taiwanese Governments did NOT contemplate - they went for eradication - find every case, quarantine all contacts, treat everyone who is symptomatic in isolation hospitals, maintain vigilance, deal with outbreaks rapidly until no new cases emerge after two months."


Whatever it takes, we must not allow a repeat of the re-open while community transmission is ongoing leading to inevitable exponential spread and further lockdowns to happen. Again.

Each lockdown is an admission of failure to act correctly to suppress the virus within the community.

http://zerocovid.uk/2021/01/13/uk-government-sinks-to-new-low-on-covid/ 

"Matt Hancock says that a Zero Covid strategy is not feasible for the UK.  Priti Patel, with the collusion of the mass media, blames the public recalcitrance for the unfolding catastrophe.  These are the twin strands of a state narrative that is preparing us for the next wave in its strategy, which will plumb new depths of callousness: fully opening up the economy once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, and allowing the virus to rip unimpeded through the rest of the population.

Dangerous

This strategy is highly dangerous for two reasons: allowing the virus to spread without hindrance increases the risk of further mutations, one of which might well be resistant to the vaccines, and it exposes tens of millions of people to potential long term health risks that are still not fully understood.

Hancock is wrong to dismiss the possibility of eliminating this virus.  New Zealand has now lifted all restrictions, having achieved zero transmission.  Vietnam, with a population of 90 million, and Taiwan, with a population density higher than that of the UK, have all successfully pursued elimination strategies.   If it can be done there, it can be done everywhere."

and

The government’s mantra on Covid-19 should be: “Get it down, keep it down, and keep it out”, writes Professor Gabriel Scally in The Guardian.

“There can be no such thing as a partial quarantine. Either it is comprehensive and effective, or it will fail. A differential approach based on country of origin is undermined by the difficulty of accurately ascertaining where arrivals have come from.”

Every country has a duty of care to every other country during a pandemic to neither export or import the infectious virus. UK Government, specifically the Westminster Ruling Faction,  has deliberately failed that duty of care. Deliberately. Not an accident, not incompetence.

Vaccines and Variants and the costs of deliberate slow spread policy..

Vaccines have been oversold as the pandemic exit strategy. This is a point I have made a number of times. The rush to Vaccine is in part an admission of the failure to adopt a zero community transmission strategy. It offers hope where ZCT offers a degree of certainty. Hope, in this case, kills.

The Financial Times published this piece, and it is a relief to see it.

https://www.ft.com/content/17c44c96-39f2-4ada-badd-d65815b0a521

"If regions with raging transmission do act as breeding grounds for resistant variants, then failing to control spread will prolong the pandemic. Prof de Oliveira stresses that Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand, which have chased elimination, are the role models to follow. “This should be a wake-up call for all of us to control transmission, not just in our own regions but globally. This virus will keep outsmarting us if we don’t take it very seriously,” he says.

That means not just vaccinating but fast testing, accurate and quick contact tracing, quarantine and isolation. In short, vaccination must go hand-in-hand with virus suppression, not become a substitute for it. A successful vaccine rollout will count for little if the country then becomes a crucible for resistant variants"

The Kent Variant tells us something about tourism, international travel the need for effective, tight quarantine and the need to reduce the amount of people who become exposed to the virus - every new case is a possibility of the virus making new adaptations that we really do not need to be seeing.

Update February 13th - a very useful twitter thread written by Deepti Gurdasani, 
Senior Lecturer, Queen Mary University London in epidemiology, statistical genetics, machine learning, where she speaks about being invited undertake interviews and panel discussions with the BBC, LBC and others and finds that not only is she effectively censored, the subject of zero community transmission is being deliberately omitted from all discussions on the COVID19 crisis (catastrophe). In the thread she works through the full scope of the meaning of zero community transmission vs slow spread towards 'herd immunity' and outlines the evidence on either side of this 'debate'. It is worth reading it through. The question is simple - the economic costs of zero community transmission strategy and quarantine borders vs the human and economic costs of slow spread towards herd immunity, with repeated cycles of re-opening and shut down as the viral infection spreads in waves.





Kindest regards

Corneilius

 "Do what you love, it is your gift to universe."